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4/10 early Sucker Bets: The at-work picks

By SuckerBet77 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:55 AM   7 comments
So far I have been on fire for my early picks and have tapered off in the evenings, but still doing well.
If I'm able to start of well again today I probably won't play any late games.
 
The early round:
Mariners +123
Mariners/Rays under 10 -135
The wheels have officially come off for the Rays after a promising start.  I can't ignore the fact that Seattle has had Tampa's number so far and I look for that to continue today.  Batista is not as bad as his numbers appear and Jackson is not as good as his early numbers appear.  Batista should tighten up and keep the Rays around 2-3 runs scored today.  Enough for the under and a Mariners win.
 
Reds -105
Reds/Brewers over 8.5 even
I like the Reds today for the same reason I liked them yesterday.  They are just a better team.  Nothing against the Brewers, but they have beaten up on the slow kids so far.  Now they are facing a potentially dangerous lineup in the Reds.  Harang is consistently one of the better pitchers in the NL and the Reds are starting to get warm.  Also, I just don't think Villanueva is that good.  I look for the Reds to put up another solid offensive showing today.
 
Braves -107
Braves/Rockies under 9 -115
I know, I know.  I fully intended to lay off of the Braves for a while, but I can't ignore this situation.  Tim Hudson takes the mound and he is the stopper for ATL.  So far in this series the Rockies have benefited from shitty Atlanta pitching from fill-ins and bullpen meltdowns.  Hudson will take this game as far as he can to keep it out of the bullpen.  The Rockies have NEVER taken four straight games from the Braves.  And the fact is, the Braves are seriously underperforming right now.  Normally I would continue to fade the team until they showed me a reason to do otherwise.  But I really feel like the Braves should win this game.  Also, super cold weather and snow should theoretically keep the scoring low.  I imagine it must hurt like a son-of-a-bitch to hit a baseball when your hands are frozen.
 
Parlay Braves & Reds
I really like both of these to win, so I'll roll a little parlay on it.
 
By the way, the Orioles/Rangers is not on Sportsbook right now, but unless there is no value I like Texas.  Millwood has owned the Orioles in recent years and I am thinking that the rainout might have cooled off the red-hot Orioles.  Small bet if I play it.
 
Good luck to those of you on these same picks.
 
7 comments
comment Post A Comment
bigmorinthing says:
04/10/08 12:46PM
   lets ride!    i waited today.  
SuckerBet77 says:
04/10/08 01:53PM
No dice on the Braves game.

 

Adding:

 

Rangers/Orioles under 10.5 even

Rangers/Orioles under 5.5 1st 5 even

Rangers -145 1st 5 innings

No doubt if this goes to the bullpens Baltimore has the edge based on their performance to date.  But based on the starting pitching I like Texas here.  Trachsel is nothing to shake a stick at, but Millwood has absolutely owned the O's in recent years.  I don't know what I am missing on the total here.  Based on the pitching this should be a low scoring duel.  Why the 10.5?  Texas is very inconsistent with the bats so far this year and I can't see them lighting it up against Baltimore today.  Even if Trachsel is off today, they will go to the pen which has been lights out so far.

SuckerBet77 says:
04/10/08 03:37PM
2-2 to start the day

 

 

-->Edwin Jackson

Me --> 

-->Seattle

bigmorinthing says:
04/10/08 06:30PM
can only get better.  lets go   
SuckerBet77 says:
04/10/08 08:33PM
4-2-1 on the day so far:

Loss -
Mariners +123

Win  - Mariners/Rays under 10 -135

Win  - Reds -105

Loss - Reds/Brewers over 8.5 even
N/A   - Braves -107

N/A   - Braves/Rockies under 9 -115
N/A   - Parlay Braves & Reds
Win  - Rangers/Orioles under 10.5 even

Win  - Rangers/Orioles under 5.5 1st 5 even

Push - Rangers -145 1st 5 innings

Late action - couldn't post these.  My boss was in and out of my office every 5 damn minutes this afternoon.  I was starting to think I was going to get fire.

Cubs -140
Cubs/Pirates over 9 -105
Nationals -118
Mets RL +125
Mets/Phillies over 9 -115
Tigers +111
Tigers/BoSox under 10.5 +105
Blue Jays -145
Blue Jays/A's under 9

Analysis is a moot point now.  I analyzed these a little, but I couldn't really spend much time on them because I couldn't risk my boss seeing Covers on my computer.  Besides, looks like I'm not going to have much luck on these late picks.  Oh well.

SuckerBet77 says:
04/10/08 08:48PM
The first set were posted this morning.  The second set were just posted (after game start).  I am partly posting them to help me keep up with my win/loss and partly to fully disclose all of my picks.  Just being honest since it looks like they are all losers.
SuckerBet77 says:
04/10/08 10:07PM
Late game:

Cardinals -140
Cardinals/Giants over 7.5 even
Parlay Cardinals & over 7.5
Not sure what I'm missing here.  This looks like a no brainer.  Giants offense has been very sluggish so far this year while the Cardinals are firing on all cylinders.  Not a big fan of Wainwright, but he's definitely serviceable in this situation.  I don't expect Correia to go past the 6th and the Cards should have some success against that Giants pen.  Cards could hit the over themselves here.
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User: SuckerBet77
Joined: November 2007
Location: Georgia
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
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