I really like pounding the first half spreads of college basketball’s powerhouse schools when they are playing against much less talented competition. My theory is that those schools with exceptional talent (UNC, Duke, UCLA, etc) will run out to substantial leads as early as possible in the game. They may not cover the larger full game spreads, but they routinely cover the first half spread.
Below are the games I have wagered using this “theory”. Mind you, these are only the ones on which I have wagered. There are many more out there and someone else can back test them (probably 50/50), but this is what I bet!
My favorite team North Carolina is 4-1 when I bet them.
|
DATE |
TEAM / SPREAD |
1H |
RESULT |
GAME |
ATS |
RESULT |
|
12/3/08 |
UNC -6 over Michigan St 1H |
W |
UNC by 14 |
-10 |
W |
UNC by 35 |
|
12/13/08 |
UNC -19.5 over Oral Robts 1H |
W |
UNC by 20 |
-36 |
L |
UNC by 16 |
|
12/18/08 |
UNC -15.5 over Evansville 1H |
W |
UNC by 18 |
-30.5 |
L |
UNC by 22 |
|
12/28/08 |
UNC -17.5 over Rutgers 1H |
L |
UNC by 14 |
-33 |
L |
UNC by22 |
|
12/31/08 |
UNC -10.5 over Nevada 1H |
W |
UNC by 14 |
-18.5 |
W |
UNC by 23 |
Other teams that I have played that fit this profile
|
DATE |
TEAM / SPREAD |
1H |
RESULT |
GAME |
ATS |
RESULT |
|
11/28/08 |
Duke - 12 over Duquesne 1H |
W |
Duke 20 |
-22 |
W |
Duke by 23 |
|
11/28/08 |
Wake -5 over UTEP 1H |
W |
Wake 9 |
-8.5 |
L |
Wake by 3 |
|
12/07/08 |
UCLA -12 over CSU Northridge 1H |
W |
UCLA 14 |
-21.5 |
L |
UCLA 18 |
|
12/09/08 |
Purdue -7 over Ball State 1H |
W |
Purdue 13 |
-12.5 |
W |
Purdue 29 |
|
12/13/08 |
Purdue -13 over Ind State 1H |
L |
Purdue 7 |
-25 |
L |
Purdue 14 |
|
12/14/08 |
Wake -12.5 over Wright St 1H |
L |
Wake 10 |
-22 |
L |
Wake by 13 |
|
12/17/08 |
UCLA -18.5 over Loyola Marymt 1H |
L |
UCLA 15 |
-33 |
L |
UCLA 31 |
|
12/19/08 |
Marquette -9.5 over WCU 1H |
W |
Marq 26 |
-17 |
P |
Marq 17 |
|
12/20/08 |
Oklahoma -8 over VCU 1H |
W |
Okla 9 |
-14 |
L |
Okla 9 |
|
12/23/08 |
UCLA -11 over Wyoming 1H |
W |
UCLA 25 |
-20 |
W |
UCLA 51 |
|
12/26/08 |
UCONN -13 over Fairfield 1H |
W |
UCONN 16 |
-22.5 |
L |
UCONN 20 |
Overall, 12-4 ATS using this “first half theory”. The same teams ATS for the full game would be 5-10-1! I guess you could play the opposite side dogs for the game and come out almost as good.
Obviously the first part of the season is often against cupcakes and maybe that’s why this worked so well. We will have to see how this theory plays out during the regular season as competition improves!
Here are my plays for 01/02/2009
9:00pm Texas -12.5 over Appalachian State 1st Half
App State is a good Southern conference team, but no where near the class program of Texas. The full game line is 23, which Texas MAY cover. I just see MUCH more value in this 1st half spread.
10:30pm UCLA -8 over Oregon State 1st Half
No doubt Oregon State will show improvement over last year. They have won 5 of the last 6 games, but against less than stellar competition. I think those wins and the fact this game is at home with a new coach have helped hold this line down. Vegas is giving them way too much credit. The full game line of 14.5 or 15 (depending on the book) is WAY too low. It should be 18 to 22. No matter, as I will only play the first half. Much more value!