Sutty's Blog

Posted Sunday, November 27, 2011 11:14 AM

Three Faves and a Pair of Dogs

Jets -9.5   Today is the day Sanchez looks good. He should thank the defense for the awesome field position.
Jags +6.5   If any D can slow the Texans' run, it's this one. Matty L might well do the Jags a favor or two.
Titans -3   Groundin' and Poundin' at home.
Bears +3   Can they stop Bush..... Can Oaktown stop Forte AND Marion..........
Pats -4.5   Tommy touchdown vs "Dream Team",  Hmmm............

BOLTA


Posted Sunday, November 06, 2011 10:08 AM

I hate Sunday mornings like this...........

Hlaf way through the season and it looks too easy today. I hate that! Enjoy the FADE material:

Bills -2.5 The Jets are off the bye which could make a long day for Fitz. But the Bills can run inside, outside, and have an odd knack for getting the needed turnover.
49ers -4.5   The Niners didn't overly impress last week, but have impressive wins. Gore is on fire and the D gets to QBs. They are however coming east and playing an injured, cornered dog. Scarey. A cover here would be impressive.
Cincy +2  This line says to me, that if they were at home, they'd be favored by 6 or more. Frankly I think Tenn misses Fischer more than Britt and C Johnson's highlight reel. They just don't seem bloodthirsty anymore.
Pitt -3.5  Total Homer play. Go ahead and hate it. Flacco sucks and I hope the Refs have the balls to flag Ray Ray and friends when they commit assault and battery.
Bears +8   They play better defense than Philly. Forte should be the "ME" guy on that team. But he doesn't play like it. Philly is full of talented "ME" guys. I don't see them covering more than a TD after dismantleing Dallas last week.

Untouched leans: Pack, Gmen, Saints, and Fins
I'm going to regret not playing the Pack. I just know it. SD is a mess. Pack off the bye........

BOLTA.



Posted Saturday, November 05, 2011 07:38 PM

Gut Check. Just 3 Plays Today/Tonight

The head says Bama. The Gut says +5.5.

LSU +5.5
LSU/Bama Ov 41.5
K St + 20.5

Then parlay 'em.

BOLTA!!!


Posted Tuesday, November 01, 2011 09:08 PM

Playin' Blind

Toledo 2nd Half -8

No work. I haven't seen one snap. Blind play.

Let's get this Toledo backers!!!

BOLTA!!!


Posted Monday, October 31, 2011 08:29 PM

MNF Sometimes it doesn't make sense

Chiefs +3.5
Their last 3 are nothing to buy into. The previous games left the Chiefs a mash unit.
SD, well I wonder if Norv and the GM twisted this team into a mess.

Maybe a second half play.

BOLTA!!!


Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 09:24 AM

Four for Sunday

I am certainly fade material, hitting under 50% the last ten days. Head still above water, and hoping for the tide to turn. 
Too much likable home chalk this week. Now I'm pumping the brakes a bit and playing 4 out of 8 leans.
Leans not played: Jacksonville, Gmen, Det, and 49ers. SF probably the toughest to walk away from.

Buff -4.5  At home off the bye vs a banged up Skins team.
Balty -13 They've got to be focused if not just pissed. Kolb who?
Minny +3 AP all day, forcing Cam into a come back win situation.
Pitt +3.5 Best fade for you.

2 parlays:
Buff -4.5/Balty -13/Minny ML/Pitt ML
Minny +3/Pitt +3.5 

BOLTA, and congrats to Wuss & his promotion!



Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 07:51 AM

Three bits of road chalk....

Can GT actually lose again? Clemson seems focused enough to be the team to do it.
Clem -4.5

They run, and oh do they pass....
Ark -10.5

One more time with Cal. Jeez I hope they just run the ball!!!
Cal -5

That's all. Just road chalk. I must be crazy?

Parlay them for a small piece of change too.

BOLTA



Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 08:00 PM

Action Friday

BYU +13
Rangers +115
BYU +13/Ov 56/Rangers

What can I say? Lovin' the road teams tonight.

BOLTA


Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 07:52 PM

I love MNF and typically, Home DD Dogs

But not tonight.....
It's tough to lay DD in the NFL. Normally, I look away from that game. How many Dogs got away during that Patriots run a few years ago? 
Two solid defenses. Two great running offenses. Flacco obviously has the edge in the QB comparison. I think he's a bit over-rated though. I had a tough time capping this game because the Jags have been in their games with MJD and good defense. Now they're home in Prime Time. I also could not get past Balty's let down in Tenn after absolutely dominating Pittsburgh. 
But I truly believe most teams are just now finding their "rhythm" after a screwed up lockout preseason. 
I think both teams will give the 'ol eyeball test a look at balance. Black and blue rushing and punishing defense. I feel like both QB(s) will have impact as well. MJD gets his.  Balty wins. Their defense scores too.

Balty - 11.5 
Balty -11.5/Ov 39.5

I wish I had time to cap this week before today. I played blind Sat. I missed Sunday. I got shitty odds tonight. (10 and 38 would've been GREAT.) I'm playing them anyway. I wouldn't call these plays BIG; but bigger than "medium".

BOLTA!!! 

Happy Kane, thanks for the grades! 


Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 10:16 PM

Ancient Indian word for :Douche Bag".....

Brandon Marshal

Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 07:59 PM

Phins vs Jets Always Entertaining

It seems this matchup has always made for good t.v. Too bad Testaverde and Marino are out tonight. There are enough story lines to suck us all in though. One coach literally cannot take off his shades, and the other literally cannot shut up, and on, and on, and on.
But seriously, both teams want to run the ball. However neither fears the other's QB, so passing is certainly possible. Both defenses will blitz. Which team that wins the turnover battle? That will be the difference.
Partly public fade, partly the history here, and partly eyeball test:

Miami +7.5
Miami +7.5/Ov 41.5

Maybe more at the half.

BOLTA


Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 12:49 PM

NFL 10/16 3 Dogs, 3 Faves

Atl -3.5 Should finally run well and make passing look easy

SF +5.5 Both teams come back to win too often, I'll take the points

Cincy -5 Surprising and tough, get their 1st walking away win

Philly -3 Hopefully they put away that wide 9, and Vick plays a complete game, run Mcoy, run

Cleve +7 Keep it close Brownies

Dallas +6.5 Off a bye, healthy, Hmmm

BOLTA



Posted Saturday, October 15, 2011 10:01 AM

Sat 10/15

Hawaii not only has one trying to kick a field goal, but two!!

On to a new day:

Mich +3  On the road vs tough defense in a rival, lets see what they're made of.

Baylor +8.5 looking for a shootout, I hope they just won't go away.

Ok St -8.5 Just too much O for the Horns

Ga Tech -8.5 UVA refuses to be legit

Aub +1.5 Should've played the ML in a tight one

Clem -10  Poor MD, fancy duds though

WF +6 Another Hokie Heart Stopping 4th quarter, I'll take the points

Kan St +3.5 They'll be allowed to keep scoring

Az St +14 Tough pick, but too many points based on previous foes. Cal let Oregon, who is good, look great.

BOLTA!!!



Posted Friday, October 14, 2011 08:59 PM

Conspiracy Friday 10/14

con·spir·a·cy /k?n'sp?r?si/ Show Spelled[kuhn-spir-uh-see] Show IPA [More]

Posted Monday, November 01, 2010 08:02 PM

11/1/10 MNF

Simple.

Parlay: Texans +190 & Ov 50.5      100/455

Texans Ov 20.5 115/100

Texans +5 110/100

325/755

BOL


Posted Thursday, October 21, 2010 11:48 AM

Teams off the bye. Week 7. Who do you like & why?

Week 7 team matchups: (Team off the bye)

Cincy:       su 2-3 ats 2-3, Rd Dog, Out of Conf. 1-1, Road su 1-2 ats 1-2
Atlanta -4 su 4-2, ats 3-3, Out of Conf. 1-1, Home su 2-0 ats 1-1

Buffalo    su 0-5 ats 1-4, Rd Dog, Non Div AFC 0-1, Road su 0-2 ats 1-1
Balty -13 su 4-2, ats 3-2-1, Non Div AFC 2-1, Home su 2-0 ats 1-1

San Fran      su 1-5, ats 2-4, Non Div NFC 0-3, Rd su 0-3 ats 1-2
Carolina +3 su 0-5, ats 1-4, Home Dog, Non Div NFC 0-2, Home su 0-3 ats 0-3

Arizona        su 3-2 ats 2-3, Rd Dog, Division 1-0, Rd su 1-2 ats 1-2
Seattle -3.5 su 3-2 ats 3-2, Div 1-1, Home su 2-0 ats 2-0

Useful Trends:

Overall, regular season teams coming off a week of rest sport a 338-319-12 ATS record. Obviously, there's not a lot of profit in that block of games. However, after some intensive research, I did discover four different areas that produced a great deal of success.


First, the knee-jerk reaction might be to take an NFL team running with a week of rest provided they check in off a blowout loss of 10 points or more. That's exactly what you don't want to do. Since 1990, pro teams in this situation are a soft 72-94-3 ATS including 31-44-2 ATS on foreign soil. If our guest is matched up against a foe that checks in with momentum off a SU and ATS win, this situation crashes to a dismal 10-22-2 ATS. Make t... [More]

Posted Monday, October 18, 2010 10:22 PM

Tenn - Jags 2nd Half

2 units, OV 20

Looking for Defense/Special Teams score.

BOL


Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 07:53 PM

Tough day......., Great night?

2-3 on the day:

Bears
Pats
Broncos
Raiders
Vikes

Tonight

Skins +3  3 units

balance 2.6 units

BOL


Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 12:25 PM

Week 6 Teams off the bye & more

YTD (Ncaa & NFL): +2.2 units
Spreads & ML:15-12
2 Team Parlays 0-5

Lunacy Play: 0-0

Off the Bye:
I love everything about the Steelers. Everything points to them. I just cannot pull that trigger. I won't lay TWO TDs on a total Homer play in the first half of the season, no thanks.

I'm leaning hard on Miami, but will not pull the trigger there either. I just can't get over the statistical fact that GB runs the ball better than the Fins. Perhaps the wild cat is in their way.

I love the Bears -5.5 vs Seattle. The bye doesn't help the Seahawks. Besides, the public is helping this pick.

With much respect for the Balty defense and Flacco's weapons, this is a perfect spot for the Pats -2.5 off the bye.

Final Card:
Bears - 5.5 1 unit
NE -2.5 1 unit

Denver +3.5 1 unit
     They've bought into the system in Denver, a tough place to travel to. While the Jets look great, they won't win them all.
Oakland +7 1 unit
     Gut play. I hope they stop the run, and let Smith give them a chance.
Minny -1.5 1 unit
     Two 1-3 teams that need a win and have talent beyond their record. I will take the dysfunctional home team over the dysfunctional road team.

Lunacy Play:
.5 unit parlay: Bears -5.5, NE -2.5, Denver ML, Minny -1.5 (17:1)

balance +1.7 units

After surviving today I will look at Wash +3 tonight.
[More]

Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 12:20 PM

Week 6 Teams off the bye & more

YTD (Ncaa & NFL): +2.2 units
Spreads & ML:15-12
2 Team Parlays 0-5

Lunacy Play: 0-0

Off the Bye:
I love everything about the Steelers. Everything points to them. I just cannot pull that trigger. I won't lay TWO TDs on a total Homer play in the first half of the season, no thanks.

I'm leaning hard on Miami, but will not pull the trigger there either. I just can't get over the statistical fact that GB runs the ball better than the Fins. Perhaps the wild cat is in their way.

I love the Bears -5.5 vs Seattle. The bye doesn't help the Seahawks. Besides, the public is helping this pick.

With much respect for the Balty defense and Flacco's weapons, this is a perfect spot for the Pats -2.5 off the bye.

Final Card:
Bears - 5.5 1 unit
NE -2.5 1 unit

Denver +3.5 1 unit
     They've bought into the system in Denver, a tough place to travel to. While the Jets look great, they won't win them all.
Oakland +7 1 unit
     Gut play. I hope they stop the run, and let Smith give them a chance.
Minny -1.5 1 unit
     Two 1-3 teams that need a win and have talent beyond their record. I will take the dysfunctional home team over the dysfunctional road team.

Lunacy Play:
.5 unit parlay: Bears -5.5, NE -2.5, Denver ML, Minny -1.5 (17:1)

balance +1.7 units

After surviving today I will look at Wash +3 tonight.

BOL


Posted Saturday, October 16, 2010 12:29 PM

10/16 Quick play NCAA parlays

YTD (Ncaa & NFL) 15-14 +3.7 units
For what its worth, 0-2 with parlays.

With zero study time I'll play 3 half unit parlays for a little action today:

SoCar -5, Ark +3.5
UVA +6, Mich +4
Neb -9.5, Wisky +4

balance +2.2 units

Isn't this fun?

BOL


Posted Thursday, October 14, 2010 12:45 PM

Teams off the bye. Week 6. Who do you like &why?

Pittsburgh -13.5 vs Cleveland
Seattle +6.5 @ Chicago
NE -2 vs Balty
Miami (off) @ GB

Who do you like and why? Typically I give serious consideration to the dogs off the bye. Even on the road. I'm not so sure this week.

Before digging into these matchups, my initial thoughts are:

Pitt: laying 2 TDs in the NFL is still 2 TDs.

Seattle sacks the QB, getting a TD from Cutler returning from a concussion with a good run game and solid defense.

NE laying 2 is appealing against a talented Balty team that seems not to have put it all together yet.

Miami off the board because Rogers is concussed. Should they be favored? GB off a tough road loss coming home and needing a win with a backup QB?

So, anyone have an opinion?

BOL

Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 07:44 PM

Good Sunday, bumping up Monday

Grabbed Vikes +4 yesterday.
Bumping up with 1 unit parlay:
Vikes +165 & ov 40.5 @ 4:1 odds.

Vikes defense coming off the bye, with Farve and Moss playing for pride, and oh yeah, AP. Sanchez & Keller & Holmes get theirs too. Projected final: Vikes 27 Jets 24. But who really knows?

Looking for 2nd half play too.

BOL


Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 01:56 AM

Teams off the first bye week

Of the four possible, they are 1-2:
KC + 7.5 lost in Indy 19-9
TB +7 won in Cincy 24-21
Dallas fond no help in the bye. They hosted Tenn +7.5 and lost 34-27.
Going into Monday's, (10/11), Vikings vs Jets;a great matchup with all the B.S. and media hyped side stories, the Vikes have gone from +4 to +4.5.
I think the bye teams go 2-2.

Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 12:38 PM

NFL 10/10/10 plays......

YTD NCAA & NFL 12-10, +4 units

Off the bye:
KC +7, 1 unit: Peyton at home is tough, but where is the Indy defense?
Minny +4, 1 unit: Too much time for Vikes defense to prepare.

The rest:
Bears +2.5, 2 units: QBs nullify each other, Bears have better defense.
ATL -3, 1 unit: They have more than we've seen.
Tenn +7.5, 1 unit: I don't think a bye week helps the Dallas continuity. Tenn is too fiesty to get more than 3.5.
BOL


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