Sutty's Blog
Posted Sunday, November 27, 2011 11:14 AM
Jets -9.5 Today is the day Sanchez looks good. He should thank the defense for the awesome field position.
Jags +6.5 If any D can slow the Texans' run, it's this one. Matty L might well do the Jags a favor or two.
Titans -3 Groundin' and Poundin' at home.
Bears +3 Can they stop Bush..... Can Oaktown stop Forte AND Marion..........
Pats -4.5 Tommy touchdown vs "Dream Team", Hmmm............
BOLTA
Posted Sunday, November 06, 2011 10:08 AM
Hlaf way through the season and it looks too easy today. I hate that! Enjoy the FADE material:
Bills -2.5 The Jets are off the bye which could make a long day for Fitz. But the Bills can run inside, outside, and have an odd knack for getting the needed turnover.
49ers -4.5 The Niners didn't overly impress last week, but have impressive wins. Gore is on fire and the D gets to QBs. They are however coming east and playing an injured, cornered dog. Scarey. A cover here would be impressive.
Cincy +2 This line says to me, that if they were at home, they'd be favored by 6 or more. Frankly I think Tenn misses Fischer more than Britt and C Johnson's highlight reel. They just don't seem bloodthirsty anymore.
Pitt -3.5 Total Homer play. Go ahead and hate it. Flacco sucks and I hope the Refs have the balls to flag Ray Ray and friends when they commit assault and battery.
Bears +8 They play better defense than Philly. Forte should be the "ME" guy on that team. But he doesn't play like it. Philly is full of talented "ME" guys. I don't see them covering more than a TD after dismantleing Dallas last week.
Untouched leans: Pack, Gmen, Saints, and Fins
I'm going to regret not playing the Pack. I just know it. SD is a mess. Pack off the bye........
BOLTA.
Posted Saturday, November 05, 2011 07:38 PM
The head says Bama. The Gut says +5.5.
LSU +5.5
LSU/Bama Ov 41.5
K St + 20.5
Then parlay 'em.
BOLTA!!!
Posted Tuesday, November 01, 2011 09:08 PM
Toledo 2nd Half -8
No work. I haven't seen one snap. Blind play.
Let's get this Toledo backers!!!
BOLTA!!!
Posted Monday, October 31, 2011 08:29 PM
Chiefs +3.5
Their last 3 are nothing to buy into. The previous games left the Chiefs a mash unit.
SD, well I wonder if Norv and the GM twisted this team into a mess.
Maybe a second half play.
BOLTA!!!
Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 09:24 AM
I am certainly fade material, hitting under 50% the last ten days. Head still above water, and hoping for the tide to turn.
Too much likable home chalk this week. Now I'm pumping the brakes a bit and playing 4 out of 8 leans.
Leans not played: Jacksonville, Gmen, Det, and 49ers. SF probably the toughest to walk away from.
Buff -4.5 At home off the bye vs a banged up Skins team.
Balty -13 They've got to be focused if not just pissed. Kolb who?
Minny +3 AP all day, forcing Cam into a come back win situation.
Pitt +3.5 Best fade for you.
2 parlays:
Buff -4.5/Balty -13/Minny ML/Pitt ML
Minny +3/Pitt +3.5
BOLTA, and congrats to Wuss & his promotion!
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 07:51 AM
Can GT actually lose again? Clemson seems focused enough to be the team to do it.
Clem -4.5
They run, and oh do they pass....
Ark -10.5
One more time with Cal. Jeez I hope they just run the ball!!!
Cal -5
That's all. Just road chalk. I must be crazy?
Parlay them for a small piece of change too.
BOLTA
Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 08:00 PM
BYU +13
Rangers +115
BYU +13/Ov 56/Rangers
What can I say? Lovin' the road teams tonight.
BOLTA
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 07:52 PM
But not tonight.....
It's tough to lay DD in the NFL. Normally, I look away from that game. How many Dogs got away during that Patriots run a few years ago?
Two solid defenses. Two great running offenses. Flacco obviously has the edge in the QB comparison. I think he's a bit over-rated though. I had a tough time capping this game because the Jags have been in their games with MJD and good defense. Now they're home in Prime Time. I also could not get past Balty's let down in Tenn after absolutely dominating Pittsburgh.
But I truly believe most teams are just now finding their "rhythm" after a screwed up lockout preseason.
I think both teams will give the 'ol eyeball test a look at balance. Black and blue rushing and punishing defense. I feel like both QB(s) will have impact as well. MJD gets his. Balty wins. Their defense scores too.
Balty - 11.5
Balty -11.5/Ov 39.5
I wish I had time to cap this week before today. I played blind Sat. I missed Sunday. I got shitty odds tonight. (10 and 38 would've been GREAT.) I'm playing them anyway. I wouldn't call these plays BIG; but bigger than "medium".
BOLTA!!!
Happy Kane, thanks for the grades!
Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 10:16 PM
Brandon Marshal
Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 07:59 PM
It seems this matchup has always made for good t.v. Too bad Testaverde and Marino are out tonight. There are enough story lines to suck us all in though. One coach literally cannot take off his shades, and the other literally cannot shut up, and on, and on, and on.
But seriously, both teams want to run the ball. However neither fears the other's QB, so passing is certainly possible. Both defenses will blitz. Which team that wins the turnover battle? That will be the difference.
Partly public fade, partly the history here, and partly eyeball test:
Miami +7.5
Miami +7.5/Ov 41.5
Maybe more at the half.
BOLTA
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 12:49 PM
Atl -3.5 Should finally run well and make passing look easy
SF +5.5 Both teams come back to win too often, I'll take the points
Cincy -5 Surprising and tough, get their 1st walking away win
Philly -3 Hopefully they put away that wide 9, and Vick plays a complete game, run Mcoy, run
Cleve +7 Keep it close Brownies
Dallas +6.5 Off a bye, healthy, Hmmm
BOLTA
Posted Saturday, October 15, 2011 10:01 AM
Hawaii not only has one trying to kick a field goal, but two!!
On to a new day:
Mich +3 On the road vs tough defense in a rival, lets see what they're made of.
Baylor +8.5 looking for a shootout, I hope they just won't go away.
Ok St -8.5 Just too much O for the Horns
Ga Tech -8.5 UVA refuses to be legit
Aub +1.5 Should've played the ML in a tight one
Clem -10 Poor MD, fancy duds though
WF +6 Another Hokie Heart Stopping 4th quarter, I'll take the points
Kan St +3.5 They'll be allowed to keep scoring
Az St +14 Tough pick, but too many points based on previous foes. Cal let Oregon, who is good, look great.
BOLTA!!!
Posted Friday, October 14, 2011 08:59 PM
con·spir·a·cy
/k?n'sp?r?si/
Show Spelled[kuhn-spir-uh-see]
Show IPA
conspiring.
[More]
Posted Monday, November 01, 2010 08:02 PM
Simple.
Parlay: Texans +190 & Ov 50.5 100/455
Texans Ov 20.5 115/100
Texans +5 110/100
325/755
BOL
Posted Thursday, October 21, 2010 11:48 AM
Week 7 team matchups: (Team off the bye)
Cincy: su 2-3 ats 2-3, Rd Dog, Out of Conf. 1-1, Road su 1-2 ats 1-2
Atlanta -4 su 4-2, ats 3-3, Out of Conf. 1-1, Home su 2-0 ats 1-1
Buffalo su 0-5 ats 1-4, Rd Dog, Non Div AFC 0-1, Road su 0-2 ats 1-1
Balty -13 su 4-2, ats 3-2-1, Non Div AFC 2-1, Home su 2-0 ats 1-1
San Fran su 1-5, ats 2-4, Non Div NFC 0-3, Rd su 0-3 ats 1-2
Carolina +3 su 0-5, ats 1-4, Home Dog, Non Div NFC 0-2, Home su 0-3 ats 0-3
Arizona su 3-2 ats 2-3, Rd Dog, Division 1-0, Rd su 1-2 ats 1-2
Seattle -3.5 su 3-2 ats 3-2, Div 1-1, Home su 2-0 ats 2-0
Useful Trends:
Overall, regular season teams coming off a week of rest sport a 338-319-12 ATS
record. Obviously, there's not a lot of profit in that block of games.
However, after some intensive research, I did discover four different
areas that produced a great deal of success.
First, the
knee-jerk reaction might be to take an NFL team running with a week of
rest provided they check in off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.
That's exactly what you don't want to do. Since 1990, pro teams in this
situation are a soft 72-94-3 ATS including 31-44-2 ATS on
foreign soil. If our guest is matched up against a foe that checks in
with momentum off a SU and ATS win, this situation crashes to a dismal 10-22-2 ATS. Make t...
[More]
Posted Monday, October 18, 2010 10:22 PM
2 units, OV 20
Looking for Defense/Special Teams score.
BOL
Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 07:53 PM
2-3 on the day:
Bears
Pats
Broncos
Raiders
Vikes
Tonight
Skins +3 3 units
balance 2.6 units
BOL
Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 12:25 PM
YTD (Ncaa & NFL): +2.2 units
Spreads & ML:15-12
2 Team Parlays 0-5
Lunacy Play: 0-0
Off the Bye:
I
love everything about the Steelers. Everything points to them. I just
cannot pull that trigger. I won't lay TWO TDs on a total Homer play in
the first half of the season, no thanks.
I'm leaning hard on
Miami, but will not pull the trigger there either. I just can't get over
the statistical fact that GB runs the ball better than the Fins.
Perhaps the wild cat is in their way.
I love the Bears -5.5 vs Seattle. The bye doesn't help the Seahawks. Besides, the public is helping this pick.
With much respect for the Balty defense and Flacco's weapons, this is a perfect spot for the Pats -2.5 off the bye.
Final Card:
Bears - 5.5 1 unit
NE -2.5 1 unit
Denver +3.5 1 unit
They've bought into the system in Denver, a tough place to travel to. While the Jets look great, they won't win them all.
Oakland +7 1 unit
Gut play. I hope they stop the run, and let Smith give them a chance.
Minny -1.5 1 unit
Two 1-3 teams that need a win and have talent beyond their record. I
will take the dysfunctional home team over the dysfunctional road team.
Lunacy Play:
.5 unit parlay: Bears -5.5, NE -2.5, Denver ML, Minny -1.5 (17:1)
balance +1.7 units
After surviving today I will look at Wash +3 tonight.
[More]
Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 12:20 PM
YTD (Ncaa & NFL): +2.2 units
Spreads & ML:15-12
2 Team Parlays 0-5
Lunacy Play: 0-0
Off the Bye:
I love everything about the Steelers. Everything points to them. I just cannot pull that trigger. I won't lay TWO TDs on a total Homer play in the first half of the season, no thanks.
I'm leaning hard on Miami, but will not pull the trigger there either. I just can't get over the statistical fact that GB runs the ball better than the Fins. Perhaps the wild cat is in their way.
I love the Bears -5.5 vs Seattle. The bye doesn't help the Seahawks. Besides, the public is helping this pick.
With much respect for the Balty defense and Flacco's weapons, this is a perfect spot for the Pats -2.5 off the bye.
Final Card:
Bears - 5.5 1 unit
NE -2.5 1 unit
Denver +3.5 1 unit
They've bought into the system in Denver, a tough place to travel to. While the Jets look great, they won't win them all.
Oakland +7 1 unit
Gut play. I hope they stop the run, and let Smith give them a chance.
Minny -1.5 1 unit
Two 1-3 teams that need a win and have talent beyond their record. I will take the dysfunctional home team over the dysfunctional road team.
Lunacy Play:
.5 unit parlay: Bears -5.5, NE -2.5, Denver ML, Minny -1.5 (17:1)
balance +1.7 units
After surviving today I will look at Wash +3 tonight.
BOL
Posted Saturday, October 16, 2010 12:29 PM
YTD (Ncaa & NFL) 15-14 +3.7 units
For what its worth, 0-2 with parlays.
With zero study time I'll play 3 half unit parlays for a little action today:
SoCar -5, Ark +3.5
UVA +6, Mich +4
Neb -9.5, Wisky +4
balance +2.2 units
Isn't this fun?
BOL
Posted Thursday, October 14, 2010 12:45 PM
Pittsburgh -13.5 vs Cleveland
Seattle +6.5 @ Chicago
NE -2 vs Balty
Miami (off) @ GB
Who do you like and why? Typically I give serious consideration to the dogs off the bye. Even on the road. I'm not so sure this week.
Before digging into these matchups, my initial thoughts are:
Pitt: laying 2 TDs in the NFL is still 2 TDs.
Seattle sacks the QB, getting a TD from Cutler returning from a concussion with a good run game and solid defense.
NE laying 2 is appealing against a talented Balty team that seems not to have put it all together yet.
Miami off the board because Rogers is concussed. Should they be favored? GB off a tough road loss coming home and needing a win with a backup QB?
So, anyone have an opinion?
BOL
Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 07:44 PM
Grabbed Vikes +4 yesterday.
Bumping up with 1 unit parlay:
Vikes +165 & ov 40.5 @ 4:1 odds.
Vikes defense coming off the bye, with Farve and Moss playing for pride, and oh yeah, AP. Sanchez & Keller & Holmes get theirs too. Projected final: Vikes 27 Jets 24. But who really knows?
Looking for 2nd half play too.
BOL
Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 01:56 AM
Of the four possible, they are 1-2:
KC + 7.5 lost in Indy 19-9
TB +7 won in Cincy 24-21
Dallas fond no help in the bye. They hosted Tenn +7.5 and lost 34-27.
Going into Monday's, (10/11), Vikings vs Jets;a great matchup with all the B.S. and media hyped side stories, the Vikes have gone from +4 to +4.5.
I think the bye teams go 2-2.
Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 12:38 PM
YTD NCAA & NFL 12-10, +4 units
Off the bye:
KC +7, 1 unit: Peyton at home is tough, but where is the Indy defense?
Minny +4, 1 unit: Too much time for Vikes defense to prepare.
The rest:
Bears +2.5, 2 units: QBs nullify each other, Bears have better defense.
ATL -3, 1 unit: They have more than we've seen.
Tenn +7.5, 1 unit: I don't think a bye week helps the Dallas continuity. Tenn is too fiesty to get more than 3.5.
BOL