TRoe15's Blog

Season Win Total Wagers

By TRoe15 | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, March 02, 2010 08:20 PM   16 comments
Florida Marlins over 80.5 (-105) (6u)

This is a team that won 87 games last season and I think they should be even better this year.  They did lose Nick Johnson from the starting lineup, but the rest of the lineup is in tact.

I would imagine that the lineup probably looks something like this for the season opener:

1. LF Coghlan
2. CF Maybin
3. SS Ramirez
4. 3B Cantu
5. 2B Uggla
6. 1B Sanchez
7. RF Ross
8. C Baker

It's not great, but it's not a bad lineup either.  I think they'll find ways to put up big runs.  They always seem to do so.

The rotation is headlined by Josh Johnson, who could be a legitimate Cy Young contender this year after going 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA last year.  Ricky Nolasco had a terrible ERA last year (5.05), but was extremely unlucky.  He ranked 9th in the NL in K/9 (9.49), 5th to K:BB ratio (4.43:1) and 32nd in WHIP (1.25).  However, his ERA ranked 75th.  Expect to see things come back to normal a bit this year with Nolasco.  I think he's in line for a 15 win, 3.60 ERA season.  Anibal Sanchez, Sean West, Chris Volstad, Rick VandenHurk and Andrew Miller are all fighting for the last three spots.  The bullpen posted a respectable 3.89 ERA last year, putting them 7th in the NL.  From that bullpen they lost Luis Ayala (5.63), Matt Lindstrom (5.89), Kiko Calero (1.95) and Scott Proctor (6.05).  I see no reason to believe that the bullpen will be any worse this season.

Bottom line is that this team won 87 games last year, had one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball, didn't get any worse (maybe even got better by adding another year of experience to the lineup) and should win close to 87 games again this year.

There might be more as we keep going.
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JW1LS says:
03/02/10 08:26PM
I love the Marlins Over this year also.  Should be an exciting team to watch this year.  
ratherBgambling says:
03/02/10 09:14PM
PatrickBateman2 says:
03/02/10 09:19PM
Mariners over looks great!  Gotta love that team. They should hit 90+ with the Angels likely to fade a bit.
JW1LS says:
03/02/10 09:27PM

I like the Mariners Over too.  They won 85 games last year and added Cliff Lee to go with King Felix at the top of the order.  Three things that scare me: lack of offense,  the fact that everyone seems to like this team this year, and Mike Sciosia and the Halos just seem to find a way to get it done year after year.
thorpe says:
03/02/10 10:26PM
I lean towards the over for the Marlins as well, but to play devils advocate for a minute...

They started the year 11-1 or so, so the last 150 games they were just .500.  They lost a few decent pieces from last year and didn't add anyone, and last year they had no major injuries.   Half their lineup is an unknown, which isn't a good thing (Coghlan, Maybin, Sanchez, Baker).  The division is going to be a little better (Phils are a little better, Braves are same, Mets are better, Nats a little better).

You know the Phils are going to be good.  If the Mets and Braves both win 85+ games, and the Nats are respectable, I'm not sure how many more wins than 81 the Marlins can get.  It will come down to Nolasco being a lot better, Johnson staying healthy, and finding a few arms for the bottom of the rotation, plus they need their young hitters to develop.


DingDong says:
03/03/10 12:30PM
tough division this year with braves and mets expected to be better and phillies always tough... marlins have been bit by the injury bug too often for me to bet on them

white sox, easiest number on the board

TRoe15 says:
03/03/10 05:55PM
Texas Rangers over 83.5 (-105) (6u)
Texas Rangers to win AL West (+205) (2u)
Texas Rangers to win AL Pennant (+1000) (1u)

This is a team that won 87 games last year and should be improved.  The lineup is going to put up runs in bunches, like they always do.  However, the real story here is what should be an improved pitching staff.

If, and it's a big if, Rich Harden can stay healthy, the Rangers will have a formidable top two.  Additionally, Colby Lewis is back from Japan, where he posted a 2.68 ERA in 2008 and a 2.96 ERA in 2009.  I obviously don't expect him to put up those numbers in the majors, but if he could take the 3rd rotation spot and put up a 4.20 ERA or lower, they should be fine there.  The 4th and 5th spots likely end up going to Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland, although you can't count out Neftali Feliz, the dynamite reliever.

This team won 87 games, might have the best lineup in baseball not residing in the Bronx and should have an improved pitching staff.  I expect the bullpen, which put up a 3.95 ERA last year, ranking 6th in the AL, to be just as good, if not better. 

We know this team is going to score plenty of runs and win plenty of games by doing so.  However, the improved staff should enable them to be better in the lower scoring games.  They get to play 15 interleague games against Pittsburgh (3), Milwaukee (3), Cubs (3) and Houston (6).

This team went just 32-68 in games where they scored 5 runs or less, so they were obviously hugely dependent on their offense to put up big run totals.  63.2% of their wins they scored 6+ runs.  I expect their record in games with 5 or less runs scored to improve, which should enable them to sneak out a few more wins.

This is my team to beat in the AL West this year.  I think they get to 89-91 wins with the same outstanding offense and improved pitching.
K4ngur13 says:
03/04/10 08:54AM
Good Luck

MoneyMakinMoe says:
03/04/10 09:26AM

I like where you're going with this... Rangers are sleepers this year as long as they start off hot!  Ive been following this team for years now and they actually have a chance this year to win the west!!!

TRoe15 says:
09/24/10 02:05PM
Texas Rangers over 83.5 (-105) (6u)

I'll be able to cash the Rangers to win the West ticket in a few days with the magic number down to 4. Need Florida to go .500 the rest of the way to cash that ticket.
ICEman83 says:
09/24/10 02:33PM
GL...........
sims_key says:
09/24/10 02:54PM
TRoe15 says:
09/27/10 01:15PM
Texas Rangers to win AL West (+205) (2u)
brent0887 says:
09/27/10 02:24PM
touchdownzach says:
09/27/10 02:31PM
 win some 
TRoe15 says:
10/27/10 12:15PM
Texas Rangers over 83.5 (-105) (6u)
Texas Rangers to win AL West (+205) (2u)
Texas Rangers to win AL Pennant (+1000) (1u)
Florida Marlins over 80.5 (-105) (6u)

For the season win totals/futures this year, went 3-1 (+13.8u).

Texas Rangers
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User: TRoe15
Joined: August 2006
Location: Iowa
Team: Minnesota Twins
Occupation: Student

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