TampaTony's Blog

NFC Championship Play

By TampaTony | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 17, 2011 03:19 PM   52 comments

Line seems fishy huh.

Probaly because it is.

Everybody wanted GB to be underdogs by 3. Well they are -3.

 

THEY WONT EVEN WIN THE FUCKING GAME, NONE THE LESS COVER.

 

This is a classic ploy. I dont like to talk in terms of TRAP PLAYS, but if there was ever one, this is it. What, you guys think GB just gonna come into Soldier field and take it. Forget all this crap about Rodgers. He threw on an injured Philly (CHI beat them too) secondary (yea folk, samuels been hurt damn near all season), a horrible ATL TEAM (thats right, TEAM, any team that almost loses to the BUCS twice is dirt, Im sorry, they were over-rated from the get go)

They lost six games for a reason. (and Rogers being out was one, but not an a real excuse, they coulda beat NE with Flynn)

The MM is in full swing about Rodger being an elite QB. He IS good, dont get me wrong, but its easy to hit 31/36 300+ yards when ur damn recivers are runnin wide fuckin open all over the place. GB is hot, real HOT, and I would not be suprised to see them win the game, BUT, CHI does remarkably well against GB and Peppers makes all the diference in the world. Rogers struggles dearly against the cover two (DONE RIGHT) (see BUCS game from last year and both CHI games) Keep waiting for Cutler to have a bad game and Ill keep waiting for the public to drive the spread up.

BITCH

Im not gonna do a fancy write up b/c you bitches need to do the reasearch on your own. Vegas in screaming for you to take the points with GB. Ill take the home dog with the better defense, special teams and run game. GB has a better offense. Defense wins championships BITCH. Rodgers is gonna need Finley and Grant back to take it all the way.

BITCH

Take that shit to the bank.

BITCH

More time on the clock. I love getting paid to do write-ups and go to covers.  Thanks Boss.

You BITCH.

The play is CHI +3, unless somebody changes my fuckin mind.

52 comments
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gutcheck says:
01/17/11 03:22PM
Right on TampaTony
muffdiver3434 says:
01/17/11 03:35PM
Nice write up TT. can't agree with you more. Waiting for these cheesehead fans to drive the points up.
veeman says:
01/17/11 03:37PM

Playoff lines should always be regarded as fishy.

The line is there to establish action. It rarely, very rarely comes into play once the playoffs start. I checked since the 2008 season, it has it not foretold anything...

Only once in all those games, all rounds, has it mattered. You would be surprised who the one cover was engineered by... (did not win but covered)...

All you have to do is pick the winner. Not talking Super Bowls, I have not researched that and frankly, it's a neutral field and never gets much action from me.

You're picking the Bears, fine. But the spread won't matter.

 

bigslickk says:
01/17/11 03:42PM
U seem angry....i thought u were done betting for the year
Greyhound says:
01/17/11 04:05PM

Saying "the Bears defense is better" is a little questionable.   



Packers give up less points  15 to 18

Packers give up less total yards  309 to 314  (to small a difference to matter)

Packers have far more sacks   47 to 34

Bears give up less rushing yards   90 to 115

Packers give up less rushing TD's  6 to 14

Packers give up less passing yards  194  to 224

Bears give up less passing TD's  14 to 16

Packers have more Interceptions  24 to 21

Bears forced more fumbles   23 to 14

Packers gave up less first downs rushing   82 to 88

Packers gave up less first downs passing   163 to 183


Here's the stats.    LINK     If I made any mistakes let me know.  

IgetMoney101 says:
01/17/11 04:08PM
It's kinda bad when you lose to Seattle and Washington in the season and should have lost to Detroit if it wasn't for a bogus rule     Go ahead and take Cutler when all the pressure is on his shoulders.
Greyhound says:
01/17/11 04:09PM
Those are regular season stats only.  
Greyhound says:
01/17/11 04:48PM

If you look at the Offensive stats between these two teams in that link I posted,   The Packers are better than the Bears in almost every category.    I'll post them later if I get a chance.


And these two teams basically play the same schedule so the stats might be a little more pertinent than another game.    

Packers have the better QB.

It will probably be a close game but there's little doubt the Packers should be favored.   


I like the Packers chances but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost.   Bears play them tough.   


Packers committed 18 penalties for 153 yards in the first game in Chicago.    That's probably not going to happen again.   

IgetMoney101 says:
01/17/11 04:51PM
I have a feeling this game falls right near the line  GB wins by 3
Greyhound says:
01/17/11 05:04PM

Here's another thing I was thinking about.      You know how the Bears didn't lay down in that final regular season game against the Packers.    That may have been a good thing for the Packers because they were fighting for their lives in that game and they didn't dominate Chicago and it was a close game.    They know that they are going to have to bring their A game on Sunday or they are going to get beat.    They know the Bears are tough.


If the Bears would have layed down in that game and the Packers won 35 -7 or something,   wouldn't the Packers be more susceptible to overconfidence?      

Maybe I'm crazy but I think that game helps the Packers this week.  

Greyhound says:
01/17/11 05:16PM

So what I'm saying is that even after blowing out Atlanta and beating Philly,  I doubt that the Packers aren't going to be ready to play this week even though they are the darlings of the media now.    This is for the Super Bowl and they have played the Bears twice and it's been close both times. 

I think the Packers are the better team and they are going to be ready but a few mistakes or turnovers can change any game.   

Viking17 says:
01/18/11 12:05AM

would've been tough game to capp if Pack +3,

but  Pack at -3 is easy money

BEARS + 3   

TampaTony says:
01/18/11 08:38AM

Yeah, I got bitched in December, I wont lie. My account was down to $20 and I was ready too quit. I lost confidence after losing some BIG bets. A month later, Im at over 6k (my personal greatest comeback) and I guess you can say Ive been thrust out of retirement. And yeah, Im still angry about blowing the first 8k I won earlier this year. I started out on fire, then went through holy hell in December.

TampaTony says:
01/18/11 08:45AM

Come on Hound, CHI DID LAY DOWN that final game. The media and Lovie Smith would have you believe the Bears went all out, but do you REALLY believe that the PLAYERS went all out with nothing to gain? Just because the score was low it does not mean the Bears went all out. And even more, what does that say for the Packers? If this game was thier biggest game of the year, and they barely won? That raises red flags for me. Just like Indy and all the other teams that "snuck" into the playoffs. I personally think the books laid GB out there at -3 (now 3.5) because they know heavy action will come in on GB. Lets forget about the regular season shit and focus on the playoffs. GB's running game is suspect, I dont believe in GB's run game quite yet and GB is not even a full strength.

MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 08:46AM


PREVIOUS GAMES IN THE REGULAR SEASON DONT MATTER as we just saw they beat Seattle pretty easy.If you are a handicapper and follow it closely you know this is not the same team as the first 7 weeks.The BEARS HAVE SWITCHED THE OFF LINE and Cutler and Martz have had 10 more weeks to adapt to each other.Dont people pay attention.

Also teams in the playoffs trying to win their 3rd road gm in a row are 2-10 and this is a div rival and the teams biggest rival.
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 08:48AM


Exactly if ever have played sports not that the Bears didnt try but they didnt need the game and the Pack was do or die different situation.As i said going by previous gms in the regular season will get you in trouble
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 08:50AM



Um but if you want to go by previous games do some research GB lost to Wash also and Det lol
hit_a_parlay says:
01/18/11 09:30AM
D-Town says:
01/18/11 09:36AM
Good luck TT. 
Greyhound says:
01/18/11 09:53AM



So you think the Bears layed down in that last game huh?   Couple questions for you?    Cutler got sacked 6 times in that game.    If the Bears layed down in that game,  why did Lovie allow that to happen?

And second,  who exactly do you think the Bears are?       You think they can play half assed and hang with one of the best teams in the league?     And the Packers ARE one of the best teams in the league.   There is no doubt about that.     There is no way they stay within 7 points of the Packers in that last game if they aren't trying.


And even if the Bears weren't trying ,which is complete nonsense, you're proving my point that the Packers learned from that game that they can't take the Bears lightly.    And from the first game between these two teams.   The Packers are in a position right now where they might be overconfident after destroying Atlanta.    But those two games with the Bears will keep them grounded in my opinion.


MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 09:59AM


Man have you ever played sports b4 its not that they didnt try it wasnt urgency.And my friend the Bears will learn alot more from that gm than the Pack and i am sure they played the game to not show them much to learn from.I am sure the Bears will have something up their sleeves.And a team looking like they cant get beat you should know better than that NE looked the same way.

Still i am going with my main insight both road teams will not win and they both may lose
IgetMoney101 says:
01/18/11 10:03AM
I only mentioned the Bears losing to those teams because the original post the covers member talked about GB beating up on a lack of quality opponents and the fact that gb lost 6 games. So i brought up the Bears losing to those teams.  Gb did lose to Detroit but Rodgers got hurt in that game and Flynn had to be thrown in that game with little preparation.
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 10:15AM


Fair enough btw i usually read the insight on your gms.

I am just going against both teams winning their 3rd in a row on the road.And the Bears i think are a lil bit of a sleeper here as i watch this div closely.This gm will be a battle to the end between 2 huge rivals.I just think people are under estimating the Bears and thinking GB cant play a bad gm or a soso gm.Look at NE i would never have thought they could play like that but anyway i am going to take the 3.5
alecboyh says:
01/18/11 10:45AM
Im with ya man, I just think that Da Bears will get it done, just hope BAD CUTLER doesnt show up for this one ... I just think that in this 3rd MATCH, the surprise element by GB Defense will be gone, let see if Mike Martz is capable of putting a good offensive gameplan to counterattack GB blitzing D and of course if Jay Cutler can execute it ...
ozzwald says:
01/18/11 10:51AM
The bears' o-line is fucking atrocious & you cannot argue that it isn't based off of their ability to protect cutler vs. the impotent seahawk's pass rush
KktdocT says:
01/18/11 11:01AM
GL.
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 11:28AM


Not their off line is much improved from earlier in the year since they have made the switch in the 7th week
TampaTony says:
01/18/11 11:32AM

Hound,

Why did Lovie allow it to happen?

These guys in the NFL are smarter than they let off. Let me just lay this out there, If I was a coach, and I knew that the seeding would potentially have u playing the Pack, for the third time, a team you have played twice already, why wouldnt you want to play them again. There is a lot of familiarity with the Pack, and that cannot be understated. If Chicago goes Vanilla (thus causing Cutler to get sacked 6 times), GB gains no intel out of this match-up. Chicago got to see everything GB had, because THEY HAD to put it all out there. Now, with that being said, IF I WAS the coach, for starters I would want to see GB in the playoffs more than the NYG of BUCS because both have punishing run games with good defense. GB has a good pass game with good defense (im still not sold on this so called rushing attack), but the pass is easier for CHI to defend in this case (ie Peppers) so why even bother by not allowing GB into the playoffs.

Who are the Bears?

Since when did GB become one of the better teams in the league. They had the same record as the BUCS and both teams lost to Detroit. To me, without Grant and Finley, GB is a second tier NFL team. Rodgers is a hell of a good QB, but damn man, he cant do it by himself. Every good QB needs a good TE, and GB is missing theirs this year. The Bears have a better pass rush, (I think the corners are equal for both teams) but CHI has a far superior LB corps than any other team in the league, including GB. (Matthews is good, but even he still has a lot to learn other than that quick inside spin move he uses to penetrate)

The LB corps would be why GB struggles against CHI. Its diffcult to run the ball on them, forcing you to pass. Trust me, Rodgers will eats man coverage up, but in Cover 2 he struggles, Check the stats. (even go to last year (Bucs game??)) The ATL game was a fluke and ATL was not a team I personally felt was a one seed. ATL had a terrible defense and they stayed in the game until the second half. Matt Ryan is not a great QB. He is just like Flacco, check down or roddy White. Thats easy to defend. Forte brings size and speed to the table. Turner is one dimensional, Forte can catch out the backfield and take it all the way.

The Bears will be able to control the clock better than GB also.

Im tired of typing, but I have more.

MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 11:33AM
People just keep pounding GB i love it move that  line higher.Yup theres no way they can lose love it when i hear it!!!Rodgers is a god he cant lose i love it.Cutler will implode love to hear it.Thats all i heard last week when i took the Jets,Bradys a god and Sanchez will implode.Things are not always what they appear
Greyhound says:
01/19/11 10:20AM


 "No Way"



Well than you should feel the same way about Cutler because he's played one playoff game in his life and it was last week.    

TampaTony says:
01/19/11 08:56AM

 

TampaTony says:
01/18/11 11:34AM
Correction, the ATL game was not a fluke, I meant to say ATL as a team was a fluke. A product of over-hype, just like that Pack right now.
TampaTony says:
01/18/11 11:40AM

People are really looking for a reason to bet GB. Rodger this, Rodgers That. SB future this, Rodgers SB MVP that.

I cant wait for Sunday night.

TampaTony says:
01/18/11 12:05PM
I thinks it is perfectly logical for the books to set GB as a favorite. If GB would have been underdog, too much money would have came in on GB. With GB at -3, that gives people something to think about, and action gets spread more evenly. Now, with GB as a fav, they (books) get the a little more action on CHI (any given sunday) and get GB favored by points, when they are probaly going to lose, creating a bigger profit than probaly last week with NE. People are going to tease GB, pick th over, when the exact opposite is going to happen.
TampaTony says:
01/20/11 08:51AM

TampaTony says:
01/22/11 09:42AM
Getting close to game time. I gonna wait it out a few more hours. Spreads at 3.5 now, Im hoping for 4
TampaTony says:
01/23/11 11:03AM
I took the Bears at BetEd at -4.5 (120)
TampaTony says:
01/23/11 12:47PM

MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 12:08PM
I believe its the same line it was in their first meeting this yr.I think the linemakers had no choice to put it there and thats why i think the line really doesnt alarm me either way.The 2 big trends that bother me about taking GB is a team is 2-17 ATS after scoring 40+ and 2-10 goign for their 3rd win in a row on the road.Its hard to win 3 in a row on the road escpecially in this rivalry and i think the 40+ has merit because it is also hard to keep playing games like that back to back in the playoffs
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 11:55AM
igetmoney,
I think they made the line that way GB -3 because of the hype and new everyone would still hammer GB at that.The line is right wasnt it the same the first gm they played.See with all the GB hype this is the only way they could get at least some action on the other side.Remember they still make the line to get action on both sides now if they would have made it -6 i would agree with you
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 11:46AM
Tampa right on
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 12:11PM



I never thought about it from a teaser aspect maybe thats why -3/-3.5 because i am sure no one expects GB to lose by more than a FG if they lose where if they did they would put the smack down on the GB teasers.
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 12:13PM



Ya but they get the best of both worlds in this situation they made it -3 and they are still getting like 70% on GB and i think they knew that
MJ2345 says:
01/18/11 12:19PM


igetthemoney ,
Well we will see,this is what makes it fun up until gametime and this why this is he best time of year with people discussing teams,trends,stats and then they all get thrown out the window sometimes like the NE game
MJ2345 says:
01/19/11 11:41AM


Well hopefully the Bears use it to their advantage which i am sure the coaches will be telling the team that they are getting no respect
Ryancoke says:
01/19/11 11:19AM
I find it very disrespectful for a Bears team that won their division, finshed 2nd place in the NFC and are now 3 point HOME underdogs to team that fought for a wildcard (6th spot) in week 17
IgetMoney101 says:
01/18/11 12:15PM
MJ  very well said 
IgetMoney101 says:
01/18/11 11:50AM
MJ         I do believe that the favorites on Sunday will go down.   The red flag that was raised in my eyes was the fact that the Packers were 3 point favorites early sunday night by linesmakers.  Chicago has one less loss than GB, they split the season series, and the Bears are at home. Why would Chicago be 3 point dogs at home. Just reading the line, I feel the linesmakers expect the Pack to win.    Back on 12/19 Pitt started off as 6 point favories vs NYJ but the line dipped down to 4 with out Troy P playing.  Now Pitt is at home again and Troy is playing, why is the only -3.5? I was expecting 4.5 at least. Are the linesmakers overreacting to NY beating New England or are they expecting NY to keep the game close?
IgetMoney101 says:
01/18/11 12:01PM
Well you probably are right but I just dont understand how even with the hype, GB to be favored. Why Chicago isn't favored is to me a lack of respect flat out. Then again if GB was +1  people would have started threads saying is GB +1 a trap?  The linesmakers are buying the hype but is it justified? We shall find out sunday.
IgetMoney101 says:
01/18/11 12:10PM
They say that the books want even action on sides but why wouldn't they want lets say 85% of the money on GB? If GB was going to not cover thats more money they rake in. Just imagine if GB was +1 the money that would have been dumped on them. If Chicago won by at least 2 vegas would have been seeing this  .  Now that the line is 3.5 some money will be on Chicago. To me I dont believe that linesmakers want even action thats just my opinion. If you had the chance to make 5 million or just 500,000 which one would you prefer?
ndsent1 says:
01/23/11 11:10AM
The play is CHI +3 ya i like it...
lovinhockey says:
01/23/11 12:58PM
love it go bears   
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