Teddy_Covers's Blog

Posted Monday, January 28, 2013 02:27 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: Super Bowl Props

It’s no secret where the early money has come on the Super Bowl.  At the opening number, San Francisco was as high as a 5.5 point favorite offshore, with mostly -5’s here in Las Vegas.  But we’ve seen steady Baltimore money pour in since that time, driving the line down to the -3.5 or -4 range at every sportsbook in town; numbers that are currently attracting two way action.  I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff.

The early sharp money has also come in support of the Under.  One prominent offshore book opened the total at 52.5, and here in Vegas we saw several books open with a total of 50.  Through the first week of Super Bowl betting, the Under has been a popular wiseguy choice.  The prevailing current offshore number is 47.5; here in Vegas we’re looking at mostly 48’s.  I do expect the public to be squarely on the Over on Sunday – this total could easily get bet up a notch or two.

The Super Bowl is a unique animal when it comes to moneylines, particularly at the sportsbooks here in Vegas.  We get a boatload of tourists in town for the big game, and those tourists have a strong tendency to bet the moneyline when supporting the underdog.  Right now, San Francisco is in the -170 to -180 range on the moneyline, with the Ravens sitting at +150 to +160 in most locations.

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Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 01:45 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: 'Life on the Line'

I write about sports every week.  Next week in this space, I’ll be writing about Super Bowl props.  Two weeks from now, it’ll be all about college basketball through the end of March Madness.  But not today.  Today, I’m going to write about movies.  Nobody needs two full weeks of Super Bowl hype!

There are no great sportsbetting movies --none.  Hollywood has produced a handful of great gambling movies – The Sting, Casino, Rounders, The Hustler and Croupier certainly stand out.  But when it comes to anything resembling realism in a sports betting movie, it doesn’t exist.  Every bettor in a Hollywood sportsbetting movie is a compulsive addict; every bookmaker is evil and they always win. 

There are no exceptions in this tried and true Hollywood formula.  If Richard Dreyfuss isn’t uncontrollably gambling on every race in ‘Let it Ride’, then Matthew McConaughey is forcing his clients into bankruptcy and letting his entire career path depend on a coin-flip in ‘Two for the Money’.  Even Bruce Willis, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Vince Vaughn couldn’t save last year’s ‘Lay the Favorite’; just more tripe from the big budget studios.  No wonder it’s so hard for new sports betting projects to get the green light!

So when I was contacted by an aspiring young Hollywood filmmaker who wanted to make a legitimate ... [More]

Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 12:25 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: The Final Four!

We’re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday.  I’ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words.  This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches.  Who’s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season?  Read on to find out.

Falcons:

The Falcons finally got the monkey off their backs with their first playoff victory in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era.  And Atlanta has one advantage that the Packers didn’t have facing a mobile QB in Colin Kaepernick on Sunday – they’ve already faced Cam Newton (twice), Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson.  However, former 49ers head coach and current Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan saw his defense get picked apart in three of those four games (allowing 28+ points), and the one that they didn’t (against the Redskins) was a game where RGIII left early due to a concussion.

Head coach Mike Smith was pretty darn pumped following Atlanta’s last minute win over Seattle, after Matt Ryan threw a pair of strikes to Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez to put the Falcons in field goal range for kicker Matt Bryant’s game winner from 49 yards.  “Our quarterback is a special player. They call him Matty Ice, but I feel like we've got ... [More]

Posted Monday, January 07, 2013 02:17 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: 8 Teams Still Alive

With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league.  This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl.  But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides.  Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings.  From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round.  In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS.  In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split.  In other words, there’s not much of a trend.

It’s a similar story with totals.  Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs.  But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over.  In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under.  In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders split 2-2 both times.  Again, there’s not much of a trend. 

Baltimore:

Do we give the Ravens credit for being the only team in the NFL to win at least one play... [More]