Posted Monday, December 31, 2012 01:17 AM
Last week, I made my end of the year Top 7 Pointspread Plays
of the Year for the NFL; a look back at some of the wackiest ATS outcomes in
what were thrilling or nerve-wracking results, regardless of which side you
had.
This week, I’m taking something of a different tack, writing
about my Top 5 ‘Hidden’ pointspread plays that had massive repercussions –
repercussions that were felt by the betting markets for weeks, even months
after the game was played. What’s a
‘hidden’ pointspread play? Read on to
find out!
5) Week 12: Miami sack
vs. Seattle
The Seahawks led throughout the second half, but a late
Dolphins TD had the game tied at 21 at the two minute warning. Seattle was driving, facing a first and ten
at the Dolphins 40 yard line, needing only a few more yards to put them in
position for a game winning field goal try from kicker Stephen Hauschka. But they lost yardage on their first down
running attempt, then lost yardage again on a quick pass behind the line of
scrimmage on second down.
On third down, Seattle QB Russell Wilson took a bad
sack. The sack forced the Seahawks to
punt from midfield, pinning Miami deep.
But a 19 yard completion from Ryan Tannehill to Devone Bess followed by
a 36 yard completion between the same duo left the Dolphins in position to
snatch the ... [More]
Posted Monday, December 24, 2012 12:02 PM
In my world, there’s nothing better than a ‘right side’
winner -- no drama, no sweating; an easy ‘rocking chair’ cover. Of course, cashing nothing but ‘right side’
winners is MUCH easier said than done.
In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a single
key late play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner.
As the end of the NFL season approaches. I’ve gone back
through my notes, looking at the some of the wackiest pointspread outcomes of
the year – the really memorable ones. End of the year Top 10 lists are so
passé, so I’ll call this my Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year. Let’s start the countdown with #7
7) Week 11: Packers
late field goal
Green Bay was a three point road favorite at slumping
Detroit, but they trailed for most of the game, and were behind by six points
at the two minute warning. Lions bettors
weren’t worried – a Packers TD, in theory, would only lead to a one point,
non-covering win. Aaron Rodgers threw
for that TD on the very first play after the two minute warning. The Lions proceeded to go ‘four-and-out’ on
their subsequent drive, leaving Green Bay the ball at Detroit’s 20 yard line
with just over a minute to play. The
Packers were unable to get a first down, and Jim Schwartz used his remaining timeouts,
forcing Mike McCarthy to trot kicker Mason Crosby onto the fie... [More]
Posted Monday, December 03, 2012 01:44 AM
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty
bad football teams. It’s December now;
time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff
contenders. Which teams have the
potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are
frauds? Read on to find out!
Colts:
Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point
underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a
playoff caliber team. Even with starting
cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence,
the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were
non-factors here.
The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for
most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten
up, taking one big hit after the next.
Coming into the game with four fumbles and ten INT's in five previous
road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first
half, but also threw a pair of bad passes to Lions defenders, and followed that
up with a poorly thrown third INT that nearly doomed their chances of a fourth
quarter comeback. And this running ... [More]