Teddy_Covers's Blog

Posted Monday, December 31, 2012 01:17 AM

Top 5 Hidden ATS Plays of the Year

Last week, I made my end of the year Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year for the NFL; a look back at some of the wackiest ATS outcomes in what were thrilling or nerve-wracking results, regardless of which side you had. 

This week, I’m taking something of a different tack, writing about my Top 5 ‘Hidden’ pointspread plays that had massive repercussions – repercussions that were felt by the betting markets for weeks, even months after the game was played.   What’s a ‘hidden’ pointspread play?  Read on to find out!

5) Week 12: Miami sack vs. Seattle

The Seahawks led throughout the second half, but a late Dolphins TD had the game tied at 21 at the two minute warning.  Seattle was driving, facing a first and ten at the Dolphins 40 yard line, needing only a few more yards to put them in position for a game winning field goal try from kicker Stephen Hauschka.  But they lost yardage on their first down running attempt, then lost yardage again on a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage on second down. 

On third down, Seattle QB Russell Wilson took a bad sack.  The sack forced the Seahawks to punt from midfield, pinning Miami deep.  But a 19 yard completion from Ryan Tannehill to Devone Bess followed by a 36 yard completion between the same duo left the Dolphins in position to snatch the ... [More]

Posted Monday, December 24, 2012 12:02 PM

Top 7 NFL Pointspread Plays of the Year

In my world, there’s nothing better than a ‘right side’ winner -- no drama, no sweating; an easy ‘rocking chair’ cover.  Of course, cashing nothing but ‘right side’ winners is MUCH easier said than done.   In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a single key late play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner.

As the end of the NFL season approaches. I’ve gone back through my notes, looking at the some of the wackiest pointspread outcomes of the year – the really memorable ones. End of the year Top 10 lists are so passé, so I’ll call this my Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year.  Let’s start the countdown with #7

7) Week 11: Packers late field goal

Green Bay was a three point road favorite at slumping Detroit, but they trailed for most of the game, and were behind by six points at the two minute warning.  Lions bettors weren’t worried – a Packers TD, in theory, would only lead to a one point, non-covering win.  Aaron Rodgers threw for that TD on the very first play after the two minute warning.  The Lions proceeded to go ‘four-and-out’ on their subsequent drive, leaving Green Bay the ball at Detroit’s 20 yard line with just over a minute to play.  The Packers were unable to get a first down, and Jim Schwartz used his remaining timeouts, forcing Mike McCarthy to trot kicker Mason Crosby onto the fie... [More]

Posted Monday, December 03, 2012 01:44 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders

I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams.  It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum.  This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders.  Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds?  Read on to find out!

Colts:

Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender.  But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team.  Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched.  Where's the pass rush?  Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here. 

The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon.  Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next.  Coming into the game with four fumbles and ten INT's in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here.  That emphasis didn’t work.  He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair of bad passes to Lions defenders, and followed that up with a poorly thrown third INT that nearly doomed their chances of a fourth quarter comeback.  And this running ... [More]