Teddy_Covers's Blog

Posted Monday, July 30, 2012 02:12 PM

Teddy's First Look: AFC East

Buffalo Bills:

Last year, Buffalo went 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS and 11-4-1 to the Over. They had a net of -0.2 yards per play (ypp) and +1 TO margin vs. a tougher than average schedule.  The Bills started 5-2 but were decimated with injuries and closed out the season on a dismal 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS slide.

2012 Issues:

This year, the Bills schedule is significantly easier based on the current 2012 Season Win Total numbers.  Buffalo will go from having a tougher than average schedule to having an easier than average slate; one of the biggest differentials from last year to this year in the entire league.

The Bills have a 12 year playoff drought – their last postseason appearance came back in January, 2000 in the Music City Miracle game at Tennessee. They signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a six year $59 million contract last year, then proceeded to watch Fitzpatrick lead the NFL with 23 interceptions.  WR Stevie Johnson is their lone proven playmaker, and former #1 pick,  CJ Spiller, has not yet lived up to expectations with only seven TD’s in his first two years in the league.

Buffalo spent money on their defensive line this past offseason, bringing in a pass rush with DE’s Mario Williams and Mark Anderson for new coordinator Dave Wannstedt.  But they’ve got question marks on the offensive lin... [More]

Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 12:26 PM

Late Season MLB

NFL training camps open up around the country this coming weekend.  The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind.  Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now.  We’ve got a rapidly maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore.  Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up.  Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks. 

The first preseason Week 1 pointspreads are now on the radar screen, as are the Week 1 college football pointspreads – the games are already loaded into the system on my SportsOptions Live Odds screen.  College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences.  Best of all, just about every day from here through the ‘real’ start of football season at the end of August, we’ll see fresh numbers on a daily basis at one sportsbook or another.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football?  After all, we’re only ten days out from the All Star break – there’s more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play.  There isn’t a team in either league that has completed more than 96 games of their 162 game schedule as I write this on Sunday Night – every team in both leagues still has at least 3/8 of their schedule to complete.

Yet a... [More]

Posted Monday, July 09, 2012 02:21 PM

Goodness Gracious! Aussie's Betting More

Australian Sportsbetting Blowing Up!

Australian sports betting is on the rise, as reported by articles today from the Herald Sun (link http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/fears-webs-fuelling-betting-epidemic/story-fndo45r1-1226422045117) and the Telegraph (link http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/rising-online-betting-fears-grip-the-nation/story-fndo2dsc-1226422057669).  Of course the lamestream media couldn’t help themselves with their sensationalist headlines – does anyone really believe that “rising online betting fears” really are “gripping the nation” or that sports betting has become an “epidemic” down under? 

There’s been a nearly 23% rise on visits to Australian sports betting and lottery sites (how they lump these two together is beyond me) over a six month span between last December and this May; truly an impressive increase in a relatively short amount of time.  What does this mean?  Australian’s like to bet, just like citizens from every other country in the world!

The biggest concern for the Aussie’s appears to be the rising offshore competition against their legal, licensed and regulated sportsbooks.  And there is also the tried and true, over-the-top fear mongering from the politicians about the supposed evils of sports betting; the same type of thing that the more moralistic politicians here in the U.... [More]