Teddy_Covers's Blog

Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 10:30 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: Top MLB Totals Trend

We’re two weeks into the marathon baseball season, but there hasn’t been a lot that stands out thusfar in the standings.  The Milwaukee Brewers are riding a nine game winning streak into the new week, a ‘surprise’ team with the best current record in baseball.  And the defending World Series champs, the Boston Red Sox, have slumped out of the gate, sitting in last place in the AL East. 

Frankly, we should expect these sorts of anomalies in early season play – in fact we should expect more of them than we’ve seen thusfar.  But there’s not much we can expect to accomplish from riding hot teams out of the gate and fading underachievers.  Based on two weeks worth of results, I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Brewers or against the Red Sox on a daily basis moving forward.  A hot or cold start is not necessarily a ‘leading indicator’ for a hot or cold season.

But MLB totals are a very different story.  I’ve written several previous articles about why I look to bet MLB totals – particularly Overs – all summer long.  To summarize three key points from those previous articles, the betting markets don’t notice streaks of Overs or Unders at anywhere near the level that the markets notice wins and losses, making streaks easier to ‘ride’ without laying a hefty price. 

Secondly, Overs beget Overs and Unders beget Unders.&n... [More]