Posted Monday, March 03, 2014 03:41 AM
In Part 1 of
this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA
champions. From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of
potential champs in 2014, consisting of the following 18 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse,
Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa St, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan
State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.
since last week, two of those 18 teams have been bounced from consideration,
including one of the co- favorites at any sportsbook in Vegas – John Calipari’s
Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky lost two
straight last week; Iowa has lost three of their last four. Both teams are now above the seven loss
cut-off line and can be eliminated.
next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from
championship is not won on a team’s home floor. Even with a favorable
location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win four ‘neutral site’
games in order to cut down the nets in Arlington on April 7th. And the
best predictive evidence that I’ve seen for future success in neutral or
hostile environments is previous success is neutral or hostile environments.
years, we’ll find a sub .500 road record or two among the list... [More]
Posted Monday, February 24, 2014 09:50 AM
Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance in 2014?
History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams.
Last year was no exception. Here’s what I wrote about Louisville in my ‘Who Has What It Takes’ article from 2013: “The Cardinals have star power, depth, experience and talent. They rebound, play defense and win games consistently away from home. Rick Pitino’s squad meets all the criteria that has been effective at predicting past championship. Plain and simple, Louisville has what it takes to win it all.” Louisville, of course, was the last team standing in the 68 team field last year, winning the national championship over Michigan.
| Add a comment