Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 04:36 AM
We’ve got brackets to break down! I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups
already set for Thursday and Friday.
Games are listed in rotation order.
The A-10 got a handful of mediocre teams like Dayton into the NCAA Tournament mix,
but the Flyers will certainly be looking forward to a matchup against an Ohio State team that has repeatedly
avoided them in non-conference play. The
Buckeyes enter the tourney on an 0-6 ATS run; just 4-11 ATS in their last 15
tries as chalk.
was a pointspread disaster area down the stretch, cashing only one winning bet
in their last eight ballgames. But Western Michigan’s only win against an NCAA Tournament team came on the
opening night of the season, back on November 8th, when they beat
New Mexico State.
Phil Martelli’s St
Joseph’s team hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2004, when Jameer
Nelson and Delonte West were his starting guards. UConn
is a Top 10 team for free throw shooting percentage; always key in this ‘short
favorite’ pointspread range.
21-9 ATS this season, the third best pointspread team in the tournament field –
only Wichita State and Tulsa had better spread records. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
earned their Big Dance bid the hard way, winning SU on the road at Green Bay
and then at Wright State in the Horizon League ... [More]
Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 02:51 AM
The Big Dance gets all the headlines; all the media
attention. And it makes sense why that
happens. College basketball is way too
big for the average fan. More than 350
teams in more than 30 conferences are simply too much for non-hardcore hoops aficionados
And then there’s the bracket factor. The entire country fills out brackets. They’re easy to fill out, the seedings make
sense to Joe Public, and after the first round, most of the ‘obscure’ teams are
gone. Those ‘obscure’ teams that survive
are now public darlings, Cinderalla stories that casual fans can understand and
Forget fans – I’m no ‘casual fan’, and if you’re reading
this, you probably aren’t either. We’re sports
bettors. And for serious college
basketball bettors, there’s absolutely no comparison between this week and next
week. This week, we’ve got dozens of ‘Little
Dances’, the conference tournaments that are a sports bettors dream. Next week, for the Big Dance, it’s still a
betting bonanza, but not quite as good.
Here are my Top 6 reasons why.
The Big Dance, start to finish, consists of 67 games. Once the opening weekend is done and we’ve
got a three day break before the Sweet 16, only 15 NCAA Tournament games still
remain. Serious bettors always want more
Posted Monday, March 03, 2014 03:41 AM
In Part 1 of
this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA
champions. From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of
potential champs in 2014, consisting of the following 18 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse,
Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa St, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan
State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.
since last week, two of those 18 teams have been bounced from consideration,
including one of the co- favorites at any sportsbook in Vegas – John Calipari’s
Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky lost two
straight last week; Iowa has lost three of their last four. Both teams are now above the seven loss
cut-off line and can be eliminated.
next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from
championship is not won on a team’s home floor. Even with a favorable
location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win four ‘neutral site’
games in order to cut down the nets in Arlington on April 7th. And the
best predictive evidence that I’ve seen for future success in neutral or
hostile environments is previous success is neutral or hostile environments.
years, we’ll find a sub .500 road record or two among the list... [More]
Posted Monday, February 24, 2014 09:50 AM
Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance in 2014?
History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams.
Last year was no exception. Here’s what I wrote about Louisville in my ‘Who Has What It Takes’ article from 2013: “The Cardinals have star power, depth, experience and talent. They rebound, play defense and win games consistently away from home. Rick Pitino’s squad meets all the criteria that has been effective at predicting past championship. Plain and simple, Louisville has what it takes to win it all.” Louisville, of course, was the last team standing in the 68 team field last year, winning the national championship over Michigan.
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