Teddy's Wiseguy Report: The Final Four

I’ve been writing about college basketball consistently since the Super Bowl, and there’s room for one last college hoops column this week.  No, I’m not going to break down the NIT Final Four, the CBI ‘best of three’ series between Santa Clara and George Mason, or the CIT Championship Game between East Carolina and Weber State.   This column is about the big boys!

Four teams have stood out above the rest on the biggest of stages over the past two weekends: Michigan, Syracuse, Wichita State and Louisville.  Bracketologists might be surprised that only one of the top twelve seeds made it this far, with a pair of #4 seeds and a #9 seed joining the top overall seed Louisville in the Final Four. 

But bettors know that seeding is essentially meaningless, especially when we’re talking about the bevy of quality teams in the Big Dance.  That’s why we’ve seen lower seeded teams favored on more than a handful of occasions here in the tourney, like when Syracuse was the chalk against #3 seed Marquette, in one prominent example this past weekend.

Only one team can cut down the nets in Atlanta next Monday.  This week, I’ll take a closer look at all four squads, assessing their chances moving forward.  Teams are listed from ‘most likely to win it’ to ‘least likely to win it.”

Louisville is the favorite... [More]

Teddy's Wiseguy Report: Sweet 16 Lookahead

The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament.   The two best conferences in the regular season – the Big Ten and the Big East -- proved to be the two best conferences in the Big Dance, sending seven teams to the Sweet 16 between them.  The ACC and the PAC-12 were the only two other conferences to send multiple teams onto the second weekend of the Big Dance. 

This week, I’ll be taking a look at the sixteen remaining teams in the field; assessing their chances for continued tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend.  Teams are listed in rotation order.

Syracuse is drawing comparisons to the UConn team that won it all two years ago.  The Orange, like the Huskies, slumped down the stretch of the regular season.  Like the Huskies, they came on strong in the Big East tournament, rebuilding their confidence in the process.  Also like UConn, Syracuse has all kinds of NBA ready talent. Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche are all expected to be drafted this spring.  Don’t sell the Orange short just because their regular season record wasn’t noteworthy!

Indiana had more turnovers than assists against Temple last weekend, and were outrebounded by the Owls; failing to sniff a pointspread ... [More]

Wiseguy Report: 28 Tourney Previews

With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets.  Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday.  Games are listed in rotation order.

Missouri spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament.  Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of Colorado State’s talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.

As a #3 seed, Marquette is only a 3.5 point favorite over #14 seed Davidson; the shortest 3-14 pointspread in recent memory.  The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.

Butler has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship game in the Big Dance and last year’s run to the CBI semi-finals.  Bucknell’s fellow Patriot League member Lehigh knocked off #2 seed Duke in the first round last year.

Valparaiso has eleven juniors and seniors on the roster, and they’re loaded with siz... [More]

Who Has What it Takes? (Part 2)

In Part 1 of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 15 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2013, consisting of the following 15 teams: Florida, Arizona, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Miami-FL and Duke. 

However, since last week, one of those 15 teams has been bounced from consideration.  Syracuse’s late season meltdown – four losses in their last five ballgames – has left them above the seven loss cut-off line.

I’d still call the Orange a ‘live’ longshot – let’s not forget that fellow Big East member UConn in 2011 also lost four of their last five regular season games before reeling off eleven consecutive wins in the Big East and Big Dance tournaments to win the title.  Then again, that 2011 UConn team is clearly the ‘exception to the rule’ type of squad when we examine the last 15 title winners.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home. The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win four ‘neutral site’ games in order to cut down the nets in Atlanta on April 8th.  And the best predictive evidence for future success in neutral or hostile environments is previous... [More]

Wiseguy Report: Who Has What it Takes?

Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance in 2013?

Part 1

History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion.  I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams.  Last year was no exception.  I pegged Kansas as my title team, and they made it all the way to the national championship game against Kentucky before falling short.

Past predictions do not necessarily indicate future success, but I’ll stand by my track record in this article.  Remember, as always, this gets written before the regular season is over, before the conference tournaments, before the seedings are announced and before a single tournament game has been played.

I’ve nailed the winner of the NCAA tournament three times in the last six years, correctly predicting Florida in ’07, Kansas in ’08 and North Carolina in ’09.  I did NOT predict Duke in 2010, and didn’t even have UConn in the discussion in 2011. 

Here is a list of the last 15 NCAA champions and the teams they beat in the title game: Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99, Michigan St over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01, Maryland over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, UConn over Georgia Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05, Florida over UCLA in ’06,  Florida over Ohio State in ’07, Kansas over Memphis in ’08, North Car... [More]

Vegas Wiseguy Report: 'Fade the Dead'

It’s late February, and there’s still two more full weeks of regular season action in college hoops before the madness truly begins.  It’s too early to write about conference tournament betting strategies – I’ll save that for next week.  But it’s not too late to write about the bevy of ‘dead’ teams that are populating the college hoops landscape right now; teams that are lethargically playing out the string of the regular season.  Sometimes, the sharp move is to lay big points fading sorry teams.

Even bad teams have hope in November – the season is fresh and new; teammates aren’t sick and tired of each other or their coaches, and the nagging injuries haven’t started to pile up.  And teams that get smacked around in non-conference play for two months get an opportunity to regroup against comparable competition when conference play begins in January. 

But when things go south in conference play, it’s not easy for many of these squads to continue competing at the same level they were earlier in the season.  By late February, the final few weeks of the regular season are a meat grinder for struggling squads, particularly those who have suffered from injuries and attrition, leaving them banged up and shorthanded down the stretch.  I call these squads ‘dead’ teams, and look to bet against them at every reasonable opportunity.

No... [More]

Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Morphers

I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance.  In between?  This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!

The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about ‘morphing’ teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative.  There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.

Who are some of these teams?  Why are they morphing now?  Read on to find out!

I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great.  Georgetown certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests.  The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in Big East play left them somewhat undervalued at the same time that NBA lottery bound small forward Otto Porter really stepped up into his ‘go-to-guy’ role during crunchtime. 

But more... [More]

Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA ATS Disasters

Last week, I took a look at the best pointspread teams in all of college basketball, with the goal of assessing which teams were most likely to continue their ATS success down the stretch.  This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in college basketball.  Why are they so bad against the spread?  Will they continue to be overvalued as February rolls into March?  Let’s find out!

The single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball this year has been IUPUI (Indiana-Purdue, Indianapolis); the type of team that only wiseguys bet on or against on a regular basis.  At 5-17 ATS, no team in all of college basketball has suffered more pointspread defeats than the Jaguars this year.  The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps.

IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, covering just a single pointspread at home all year.  They’ve been besieged with injuries and attrition; leaving them with a rotation that goes only seven deep these days.  Statistically, their two biggest weaknesses really stand out: rebounding (-5 per game) and defense (49% shooting and 77 points per game allowed).

But the real question is why a team like IUPUI is at the very bottom of the ATS standings.  Todd Howard’s squad wasn’t particu... [More]

Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA ATS Juggernauts

The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s wild Ravens victory, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks.  I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider for the last month, but I’ve yet to write a true ‘college basketball overview’ column for any publication so far this season.  That streak ends here.

I’m going take a look at the very best pointspread ‘regular board’ teams in the country in this week’s column.  The list of ATS juggernauts is likely to surprise many people due to it’s diversity.  Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs.  Look no further than the single best ATS team in the nation so far this season. 

I’ll wager that less than a dozen people in the country knew that Fordham is the #1 ATS team in all of D-1 basketball this year; 14-5 against the number.  The Rams are 6-16 SU, just 2-5 in Atlantic-10 play.  This is nothing new or different – the Rams went a combined 17-40 SU in head coach Tom Pecora’s first two years on the job.  They’re a bad offensive team, hitting less than 41% from the floor for the season while missing more than one out of three free throw attempts.  They’re a mediocre def... [More]