Teddy_Covers's Blog

Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 09:08 AM

Wiseguy Report: Outdated Bowl Strategies

I wrote an article in this space prior to bowl season detailing my personal strategies for turning a profit during these three weeks of high stakes affairs.  But as I do my research for the upcoming games, I continue to find a bevy of outdated information widely available on the internet; strategies that haven’t worked in years, yet they’ve become a part of the gambling lexicon.  

I did a national radio spot last week with a well-known host.  He brought up three strategies as the ‘sharp Vegas method’.  None of them work.  In fact, none of them have worked in years. I don’t think the host was an idiot – there’s just a bevy of bad information out there!

So my goal for this week’s column is to poke holes in the outdated information.  The betting markets are not a static entity; always morphing and evolving.  What worked five, ten or twenty years ago doesn’t necessarily work as 2013 shifts to 2014.  And when it comes to college football bowls, the paradigm has clearly shifted from where it was a decade ago.

As I write this very early on Monday morning, there have been 15 bowl games already played, with 20 more to follow.  Even from this very short sample size, you can see already that these three ‘tried and true’ strategies from years past have bitten the dust – exactly what happened last year, and the year before ... [More]

Posted Monday, December 09, 2013 10:34 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bowl Season Primer

During football season, I usually write about the NFL every week.  But it wasn’t easy to make broad generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather.  And the college football bowl pairings were announced on Sunday Night.  So, I made the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.

Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.  Overall talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot about being there.  That’s why underdogs tend to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games.  It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.

Always check the local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any team’s level of preparation and intensity. If the favorite isn’t likely to be motivated, any halfway competent underdog is almost an automatic play.

Look for the areas of team strength that are not likely to be affected by a long layoff.  Remember, most teams will have been off the field for three weeks or ... [More]