Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 09:08 AM
I wrote an article in this space prior to bowl season detailing
my personal strategies for turning a profit during these three weeks of high
stakes affairs. But as I do my research
for the upcoming games, I continue to find a bevy of outdated information
widely available on the internet; strategies that haven’t worked in years, yet they’ve
become a part of the gambling lexicon.
I did a national radio spot last week with a well-known
host. He brought up three strategies as
the ‘sharp Vegas method’. None of them
work. In fact, none of them have worked
in years. I don’t think the host was an idiot – there’s just a bevy of bad
information out there!
So my goal for this week’s column is to poke holes in the
outdated information. The betting
markets are not a static entity; always morphing and evolving. What worked five, ten or twenty years ago
doesn’t necessarily work as 2013 shifts to 2014. And when it comes to college football bowls,
the paradigm has clearly shifted from where it was a decade ago.
As I write this very early on Monday morning, there have
been 15 bowl games already played, with 20 more to follow. Even from this very short sample size, you
can see already that these three ‘tried and true’ strategies from years past
have bitten the dust – exactly what happened last year, and the year before
Posted Monday, December 09, 2013 10:34 AM
During football season, I usually write about the NFL every
week. But it wasn’t easy to make broad
generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were
significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather. And the college football bowl pairings were
announced on Sunday Night. So, I made
the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss
my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.
Motivation is the key
factor for any bowl game. Overall
talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot
about being there. That’s why underdogs tend
to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games. It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in
front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not
particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid
came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.
Always check the
local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any
team’s level of preparation and intensity. If the favorite isn’t likely to be
motivated, any halfway competent underdog is almost an automatic play.
Look for the areas of
team strength that are not likely to be affected by a long layoff. Remember, most teams will have been off the
field for three weeks or ... [More]