Teddy_Covers's Blog

Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 11:14 AM

Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Football #'s

The sportsbetting world here in Las Vegas has shifted into full summer mode over the past week.  The NBA and NHL Finals are now in the rear view mirror with the Spurs and Kings crowned as champions, leaving a modest sportsbetting void even in the midst of the World Cup.

Once the Finals end, my focus shifts towards the upcoming football season, and I’m certainly not alone in that regard.  Last week I wrote about NFL Season Win totals that have begun to proliferate in Las Vegas (still lagging behind offshore, though).  Part 2 of that article will come next week in this space. 

This past Friday, we saw another clear sign that football is just around the corner, as the Golden Nugget released their lines on 200 ‘College Football Games of the Year’.   These GOY pointspreads were posted on about 10-15 high profile marquee games a week, beginning with the Texas A&M – South Carolina and Boise St – Ole Miss showdowns on Thursday, August 28th, while running through the likes of Oklahoma – Oklahoma St, Kansas St – Baylor and Army – Navy in December.

This is the eighth consecutive year that the Nugget has been the first place in Vegas to post college football game pointspreads.   And there’s always quite a ‘scene’ at the sportsbook when the numbers are posted, as bettors who have done their homework jostle amongst each other in... [More]

Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 09:08 AM

Wiseguy Report: Outdated Bowl Strategies

I wrote an article in this space prior to bowl season detailing my personal strategies for turning a profit during these three weeks of high stakes affairs.  But as I do my research for the upcoming games, I continue to find a bevy of outdated information widely available on the internet; strategies that haven’t worked in years, yet they’ve become a part of the gambling lexicon.  

I did a national radio spot last week with a well-known host.  He brought up three strategies as the ‘sharp Vegas method’.  None of them work.  In fact, none of them have worked in years. I don’t think the host was an idiot – there’s just a bevy of bad information out there!

So my goal for this week’s column is to poke holes in the outdated information.  The betting markets are not a static entity; always morphing and evolving.  What worked five, ten or twenty years ago doesn’t necessarily work as 2013 shifts to 2014.  And when it comes to college football bowls, the paradigm has clearly shifted from where it was a decade ago.

As I write this very early on Monday morning, there have been 15 bowl games already played, with 20 more to follow.  Even from this very short sample size, you can see already that these three ‘tried and true’ strategies from years past have bitten the dust – exactly what happened last year, and the year before ... [More]