Posted Monday, December 09, 2013 10:34 AM
During football season, I usually write about the NFL every
week. But it wasn’t easy to make broad
generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were
significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather. And the college football bowl pairings were
announced on Sunday Night. So, I made
the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss
my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.
Motivation is the key
factor for any bowl game. Overall
talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot
about being there. That’s why underdogs tend
to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games. It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in
front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not
particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid
came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.
Always check the
local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any
team’s level of preparation and intensity. If the favorite isn’t likely to be
motivated, any halfway competent underdog is almost an automatic play.
Look for the areas of
team strength that are not likely to be affected by a long layoff. Remember, most teams will have been off the
field for three weeks or ... [More]
Posted Monday, September 02, 2013 12:15 AM
Part of the standard handicapping mantra includes ‘checking the local papers’ and ‘watching the coach’s press conference’ in an effort to get quality information that the betting markets aren’t paying attention too. Computer algorithms designed to beat pointspreads can’t and don’t handicap ‘coach-speak’. Few bettors actually take the time to do their homework. So ‘cappers who make and take the time to check local sources and press conferences can find legitimate edges that are overlooked by most others – good information.
There’s no dictionary to help you translate ‘coach-speak’ into betting decisions. And in all the years I’ve been writing about sports betting, I’ve never once written a ‘how-to’ article on how to approach coaches quotes. It’s time.
This past week, while doing my research for the upcoming college football games, I ran into a press conference from Skip Holtz. Skip was a very successful coach at East Carolina and UConn, then a very unsuccessful coach at South Florida. In 2013, Holtz is taking over at Louisiana Tech, now that Sonny Dykes has moved to Cal.
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Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 01:51 AM
College football season kicks
off on Thursday Night. By Labor Day,
we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS
foes, available for betting at many top books on the ‘Extra Games’ board. How important are those Week 1 results when
we project forward? What about Week 2
and Week 3? Read on to find out!
26 college football teams
were pointspread outliers last year. 12
squads hit 75% or better ATS. 14 squads
hit 25% or worse for the full season. This
falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the
teams are strong ‘bet-on’ or ‘bet against’ squads. If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or
losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college
football fall into ‘bet-on’ or ‘bet-against’ categories.
So how do we identify these
teams? Most importantly, how do we
identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take
advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to
The top pointspread teams of
2012 were Fresno St, Northwestern, Utah St, San Jose St, Kent, Kansas St, Penn
State, Northern Illinois, Ball St, Miami-Florida, Ole Miss and Cincinnati.
The bottom pointspread teams
of 2012 were Virginia, ... [More]
Posted Monday, July 08, 2013 12:55 PM
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer
months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.
We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and ‘Game of the Year’ lines since May, both here
in Vegas and offshore. The NFL season
win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the ‘leading indicator’ sportsbooks
standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.
But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks
take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA
Football lines for the upcoming season. The Golden Nugget was the first to market
with their ‘Games of the Year’ lines last month.
The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore
less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global
market leaders for 2013. Here in Vegas,
we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and
William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.
College win totals are a very different animal compared to the
NFL. You don’t see many NFL pointspreads
higher than -14, and even that is a rare case.
Of the 16 games set for Week 1 of the regular season, only one
(Baltimore at Denver on the Thursday Night national TV opener) is lined at higher
The old ada... [More]