Detroit Lions

Four years ago, the Lions were the laughingstock of the NFL; the first 0-16 team in league history.  Obviously, things could only improve once the Ford family took the keys out of bottom tier GM Matt Millen’s hands.  After more than a decade of futility, Detroit made the leap from a 2-14 bottom feeder in 2009 to an improving 6-10 team in 2010, to a 10-6 playoff team last year. 

Despite their leap up in the standings, the Lions were not money winners for their supporters in 2011, finishing with a modest 7-7-2 ATS mark.  Detroit showed guts and moxie, rallying back from double digit deficits on the road against the Raiders, Cowboys and Vikings.  But they did not play their best football down the stretch, just 5-6 SU after their 5-0 start, before getting blown out by the Saints in their playoff game (3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games).

The Lions faced a harder than average schedule in 2011, but still outgained their opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  They finished +11 in turnovers. 

2012 Issues:

Detroit will enjoy great continuity, with head coach Jim Schwartz, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham all returning, as well as the vast majority of assistants.   QB Matthew Stafford joined Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the only QB’s in NFL history to throw for more than 5000 yards last year, and Calvin Johnson remains the single most dangerous pass catching weapon in all of football. 

But Detroit couldn’t run the ball at all in 2011.  They had a subpar offensive line, leaving Stafford in danger of getting hurt, as he did in both 2009 and 2010.  For the Lions to repeat their success from last year, offensive balance would certainly help!

The Lions defense was a sieve last year, both against the run and against the pass – a bottom tier unit.  Their defensive front four remains capable of wreaking havoc in opposing backfields.  But the back seven has numerous holes thanks to offseason salary cap limitations, most notably in a secondary that got torched against every good passing offense they faced in 2011. 

Betting Markets:   

Wiseguy money poured in against the Lions all summer, despite the fact that their schedule is quite a bit easier than last year’s slate. Two months ago, you could have bet the Lions Under 9.5 wins at modest juice.  Last month, you could have bet the Lions Under 9.5 wins at heavy juice.  Right now, you can only bet the Lions Under 9.5 wins with exorbitant vig, with O/U 9 the current prevailing number.

Ted Sevransky has been a Las Vegas-based pro capper at Covers Experts for over 10 years. He can been heard on ESPN, Fox Sports and more.