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Denver Broncos 2012 Betting Preview

By Teddy_Covers | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, August 30, 2012 01:26 PM   0 comments

Denver Broncos:

Last year, in John Fox’s first season at the helm in Denver, the Broncos got hot down the stretch, in large part due to some Tim Tebow magic, and won the division with an 8-8 record (7-9 ATS, 9-7 to the Over).  They faced a schedule that was right around the league average in terms of toughness, yet were outgained by 0.4 yards per play while finishing -12 in turnovers.

2012 Issues:

Fox returns as the head coach, as does offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, but the Broncos have a new defensive coordinator; former Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio.  Del Rio served at the same position under Fox in Carolina prior to his ascension in Jacksonville.

But nobody in Denver is talking about the coaching staff – they’re talking about Peyton Manning.  Manning is 36 years old, coming off a lost season and four neck surgeries.  He’ll be throwing to a largely unproven group of receivers - -no WR on the squad has more than 124 career catches.  And Denver doesn’t have much of a Plan B if Manning doesn’t work out – backup Caleb Hanie was nothing short of a disaster in Chicago last year and rookie third stringer Brock Osweiler has looked awful thusfar. 

That being said, nobody is writing off the four time MVP Manning.  The offensive line in front of him looks solid, with every starter back from last year.  And WR’s Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have looked like legitimate playmakers throughout the month of August.

Plus, the Broncos defense packs a real punch with a pair of great pass rushers (Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil), plus the addition of key free agent cornerback Tracy Porter from New Orleans – the same guy who’s pick six against Manning clinched the Super Bowl for the Saints a few years back.  Denver also ranks well above the league average with both their punting and kicking games.

Betting Markets:

We’ve seen legitimate two way action on the Broncos over the past few months, with most shops lining the Broncos at 8.5 or 9 wins.  Bettors bet Denver Under the total rather heavily in early betting, but we’ve seen the pendulum swing the other way in recent weeks as money has come on the Over. 

It’s surely worth noting that the Broncos face a much more difficult schedule than they did last year – one of the NFL’s toughest.  Between now and Thanksgiving weekend, the Broncos face the Steelers, Falcons Texans, Patriots, Saints, Bengals, Panthers and four tough divisional games.  Five of their six divisional games last year were decided by a TD or less (Denver went 2-3 in those tight games).

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