Texan's Blog

Thoughts from a bookie

By Texan | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 10:44 AM   26 comments

Over the years of working in bars, I have had several bookies that have become regular guests and friends. As I look back some of the situational plays that they have suggested to me (to play with other books of course) have become some of my strongest plays year after year. I figured what the hell I might as well throw them all together in the forum and if you guys have heard any strong situations as well, feel free to throw them in here.

1. NBA, play on home dogs of exactly 2.5 points, this one did me well last night with the Nuggets.

2. NCAA BB Play on unranked home teams favored over ranked visiting teams.

3. NBA Play AGAINST road teams that won SU the previous game in night 1 of a back to back AND the home team was off the previous night, single unit version.

4. same as above but 2 units when the road team is favored again, again thats a play on the home team.

5. same again, this time 3 units if the road team is a DD favorite, this did not work out well the last time it happened (sac vs. Miami)

6. NCAAF Fade ALL former southwest conference teams in bowl games.

7. Play 2nd half under in NFL games that have exactly 17 points scored in the first half. (this has been posted in covers before)

8. NFL and NCAAF play against all home teams favored by less than 2.5 points or less.

9. NFL play home dogs in prime time games (duh)

10. All sports, 2nd half, when the 2nd half total + first half score is well above the game total, play over, if the 2nd half line + first half score is well below the game line, play under.

11. NBA and NCAAB. If the road team is leading by 20 + points at the half, play the second half under.


The numbers that are bold have been especially good to me.

Good luck, please add any situations that have done well for you.  

26 comments
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tafter12 says:
12/19/10 11:48AM
NFL --> if the previous week, both teams went way under, take the over

NFL --> if the previous week, both teams went way over, take the under.

NCAA FB --> Bet against teams with shitty QBs, and on teams with beast QBs ( Obvious )

NCAA FB --> take teams in Bowl games who's coach just quit. WV, rodriguez, and NIU yesterday

--> tafter12 <--

youtube channel is a must. I teach/learn much more. I'm an excel spreadsheet beast too. : )

Thanks for this post - great idea

heatformer says:
12/19/10 02:34PM
Thanks 4 the info
sdistler22 says:
12/19/10 06:40PM
This one might sound insane. But, it has worked for me in the past .... There are a few arenas that share an NHL and an NBA team. When this arena has a home NHL game, and less than 24 hours later hosts a home NBA game, take the under in the NBA game.
MakeThatCasH says:
12/19/10 10:04PM
For #1 & #8 is that what the line opens at or is at before gametime?
baconbits says:
12/20/10 01:05AM
Home teams laying 2.5 or less were 3-0 today,,,,,,,,,,, trends change as soon as someone brings them to attention!
CallMeBruce says:
12/20/10 03:15AM
Bold numbers are: 1, 2,4,7, 8?
bln104 says:
12/20/10 11:08AM
according to the #8 "NFL and NCAAF play against all home teams favored by less than 2.5 points or less." All failed on NFL sunday 12-19-2010 games Cle/Cin, Ari/Car, NO/Bal, Hou/Ten
tanwhore says:
12/20/10 11:43AM
In college basketball if a line shifts 3 points or more, bet the team that it shift towards. For example, if the team is a 3 point favorite and the line moves to 6, be sure to bet it, do not worry about losing those 3 points. If a team shifts 3 points from a dog to a favorite, double down.
Texan says:
12/31/10 11:45AM

All former SWC teams are usually the play,

so far this year we have SMU and Baylor, both lost.

and as for #10 I think that it has been a judgement call for the most part, not a numeric rule. If a total adds up to what would be considered abnormally higher than or lower than the original total.

Texan says:
12/31/10 11:46AM

 

opening line

Texan says:
01/02/11 12:33AM
add texas tech ATS to the system. now 3-0 this year. 3-1 if you count OU that was once a SWC team way back when
totoyturok says:
01/02/11 01:34AM
pezeveng says:
01/02/11 12:39PM

If a good public team is fav by 5.5 in the NFL fade them.

Texan says:
01/06/11 02:41PM
add Arkansas to the list of SWC teams to lose in bowl games.

Aggies tomorrow?
Texan says:
01/08/11 02:23AM
SWC teams this year

A&M lost
Arkansas lost
SMU lost
TCU lost ATS
Texas Tech lost ATS
Baylor lost

OU won but was only a SWC member from 1915-1919

"classic" SWC teams were 0-6 ATS this year.

 
Texan says:
01/08/11 02:23AM
Note that this thread started before the bowls.
NHLfan98 says:
01/08/11 08:52AM
Great info...wish I'd seen this before the bowl games. I'll try it out for the remainder of the NBA & NCAABB and set it aside for next year's football season.

Love the avatar too
THA-GODROD says:
01/08/11 03:11PM
I have a good one that ive used over the years for NFL,
when two teams play each other the second time of the season, if in the first meeting the total was off by 10 or more points, go the other way in the second meeting.
EXAMPLE: if the kc vs sd total was 45 in their first matchup and the final score was 35-28, play the under in their second meeting
MakeThatCasH says:
01/08/11 03:25PM
Rule # 8 means to play Jets & GB in the NFL
Texan says:
01/09/11 07:13PM

Jets winner

GB Winner

 

Texan says:
01/09/11 08:58PM

The 17 system also did welll today

Balty/KC on 17 at the half. was a push for some though

GB/ Philly on 17 was a win 2nd half

sergio1994 says:
01/09/11 10:23PM
i'm guessing BOLD means it's a stronger situation...which means I should play against ATL vs GB next weekend eventho it'll be in primetime? nice list btw.
MakeThatCasH says:
01/10/11 12:28AM


Oregon +1.5 in the BCS Championship would be the next play
SALTY says:
01/10/11 12:35AM
Do you want a cookie Texan?
abc92336 says:
01/10/11 01:34AM
Rule #8
abc92336 says:
01/16/11 03:38AM
Rule#8: GB-Atl
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User: Texan
Joined: August 2002
Location: Texas
Team: Texas Rangers
Occupation: Recreation

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