TexasD's Blog

Posted Sunday, August 19, 2012 10:47 AM

The Best Capper - The Best Bet - Tennis

Where did GoodCapper1 go?

Believe it or not, it's a GOOD thing to not always see your favorite capper EVERY day.  That's a sign of a good capper.  Good Cappers bet when there are Good Bets to be made and not Bet Just to Bet.  In other words, they are a gambler that gambles to make a profit and to protect their bankroll.

People get caught up way too much in the addiction and the fun of gambling that they subliminally forget WHY they originally started gambling in the first place; to Make Money.  Now I say subliminally because Yes, a gambler never forgets that winning is the best part of gambling,...but it's the idea that they Should Only Be Betting On Good Bets and not FLIPPING-COINS and making bets JUST BECAUSE there is a game on TV.

Technically IMO, the best tennis bets are at the Beginning to Middle of a tennis tournament when there isn't not only More Players and Matches to be picking from, but also a lot bigger Talent Gaps.

Now that we've gotten past the quarter and semi-finals, it's only getting closer to a Coin-Flip than ever.  Sure a player will win and half the people will make money, but that doesn't mean that it's in your best interest to be betting on the flip of a coin.  These two players are here in the finals for a reason...they ARE the best in the world and Now they are going head to head in the final match to see who takes home the title.

It's the only match on today besides the WTA Final and rem... [More]

Posted Friday, August 05, 2011 03:00 AM

Hey Guy in Tennis Forum - Do you like baseball?

I've been asked why I don't cap "real" matches and by "real" matches they mean matches that have low odd favs or plus-money dogs.

It's because I don't like the winning percentages of these matches.  They are all flips of a coin, regardless of the ending scores of the match.

So here we are sounding like fricken Baseball.  The same monotonous crud time & time again.  There are cappers who take their 0.5 - 5 units and stick it up the butts of coin-flip havens in Tennis or Baseball.

In a completely EVEN ODD game, where the good old sportsbook makes their 10% juice from the LOSER, we have two sides of -110 and -110. And when these systematic coin-flip cappers do this, they try to beat 52.5% to make a profit.

Good/lucky baseball cappers can go double-digits, MAYBE triple-digits for awhile.  Batters of .500 can be up a few units this week and down a few units this week.

I came to the Tennis Betting World to GET AWAY FROM THAT CRAP.  I don't care how "good" a baseball team is, you can't ride a good team forever, they get streaky, they get on lucky runs and unlucky slumps.  That's baseball.

Look at their season records and tell me that baseball isn't a fricken Coin-Flip?  They compare good teams to bad teams by which teams are ABOVE .500 and which teams are BELOW .500.

And when a team IS over .500, then their odds get TAXED to keep YOU as close to going NEGATIVE as the book... [More]

Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 10:06 AM

Click here to find out if you are a DUMB bettor or a SMART bettor.

Ok, I tried to get some numbers from people about what price they got on the futures prop bet of Miami Heat to win the Championship.

I looked back on a Covers.com article and it had the Heat pegged at +200.  OK, let's go with that.

Who in their right mind would take the Miami Heat at +200 to win it all before the playoffs even started?!?!

Morans, that's who.  Why?  Because that is a HORRIBLE BET to make.

1.  To take +200 BEFORE the playoffs means that you have crazy variables that COULD happen where the Heat wouldn't even make it INTO the playoffs in the first place.  Yes, it may be VERY slim that they didn't AT LEAST make it to the playoffs, but none the less it definitely could have happened.

2.  Sportsbooks make A SHIT TON OF MONEY ON futures bets with more than 3 options or picks.  If there are, let's say 30 options on a futures bet, only won gets paid, and the rest goes to the sportsbooks, bookies, and "Vegas".

3.  You can make MORE money in the SAME WAYS.  Let's say you would have put down $100 to for the Heat to win the Championship at +200.  So Risk $100 and Win $200.

INSTEAD, don't be a fool and put your money on the futures bet for them to win it all.  Instead wait until they ACTUALLY make it to the playoffs and THEN do EXACTLY WHAT YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTING ON IN THE FIRST PLACE: They win it all.

By that I mean Put your $100 on the Heat Serie... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 01:37 PM

Be smart, Bet like a Mathematician!

Now the weird thing is that I usually don't bet futures. Matter of fact I could probably talk you out of placing those bets all together,...with the exception of plays that are rather "valuable" against any other way of betting on that team.

For instance: I didn't have an account on Covers.com when I saw the Green Bay Packers going to the Superbowl, but I've declared to many of my friends in the "real" world that, before the playoffs started I would take any bets from them that the Green Bay Packers would GO to the SuperBowl. (In other words, NFC Champions) Well, thankfully for them, they didn't bite on that, cuz I would've banked big.

My sportsbook was +400 on the Green Bay Packers being NFC Champions. I saw that BS and just laughed at it. I did some estimating in my head of wether the Pack would be Underdogs throughout the NFC playoffs or not. Sure, I could have put $25 down on the Pack being NFC Champs and banked $100,......

But that would've been stupid.

I could tell already when their first game against the Philadelphia Eagles was a 3-pt underdog. It was like a +130 moneyline or something around there. Now if I were to just take that $25 and put in on the moneyline (moneyline cuz, saying the Pack were to be NFC Champions, is playing the Pack to win Straight Up over the course of 3 games) I would have won $32.5.
Next game was vs the Atlanta Falcons for +130 moneyline. Since I would have put $25 down on the futures be... [More]

Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 09:41 PM

A Genius Vs A Fool

I've been much a fan of gambling on sporting events, but this whole posting on forums and blogging things is new to me.

I originally started posting because I saw a line that was unbelievable, just rock solid, a good team vs a mediocre team,...a low line for the good team. 

Then I saw a second line that looked pretty good also, so I posted.

Now I chased a flu bug article that got me to investigate deep into that game that I ended up losing.

Now I DO understand that gambling is such that you DO win and you DO lose.  You can have all the greatest of research done, and all the greatest opinions of who will win, you can have all the greatest sportscasters tell you all the stuff that on why they will win, but teams will shoot good, and teams will shoot bad.

That IS what a bettor bets on.  What actually happens in the future. 

We ALL can look back on what has happened and say this or that,... why they won or why they lost,... but it's the PAST that makes us look like fools or geniuses.

I will let you know,...as a life lesson,...it's not whether you were right or wrong,...but it's the LESSON that you learned from a mistake and not the EGO that you got from being right.

Posted Wednesday, February 09, 2011 07:12 PM

The Line I Want is Getting BETTER, Ohh No!

If a line that you wanted to bet on is getting better, should you be concerned?  If you've done your homework and it looks like a better deal than a 50/50 coin flip, why would a better line be of concern?

This is what I haven't understood about bettors.


Ask WHY the line is dropping.  Cud it be that the "consensus" of bettors are jumping on Oklahoma?  Did it leak out that a Texas player is going to point-shave tonight?  Does it mean that the "sharp" bettors are putting BIG money on that side?

My favorite: Does it mean that NOT ONLY Vegas knows something and they want to put out a fishy line out to "lure" bettors into their trap?  Not only that, but all those internet sportsbooks that are BUSINESSES making money by charging a 10% juice and keeping the sides even so that they ALWAYS make money, are following what the almighty VEGAS wants.

One fact: The amount of money on each side of the bet is what moves lines. 

Second fact: Vegas does NOT gamble with their money, it's the bettors.  They make money on juice. 

The only time "Vegas" sportsbooks lose is if they can't move the line fast enough to keep the money on both sides within their "wiggle-room" window of making money off the juice, AND the team that doesn't have enough money on it's side to cover the wins of the big-money side.

(Man, I... [More]

Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 11:28 PM

Gambling to win VS Gambling for fun

As a person that gambles,....a gambler tries to bet on sumthing that has better odds than a flip of a coin.  IMO, a shooter can be on, ...and shooter can be off,.... a coach can choose fast-paced play,... a coach can choose slow-paced play. 

The shooter obviously doesn't choose how he does, but a coach,...he tries to do what he has to,... to win the game.  Sometimes that involves changing the defense to confuse them, sometimes, that involves changing the pace of the game to throw them off,...sometimes a team REACTS diferrently when they are behind and want to speed up when they are a slower paced offense. 
IMO, an OVER/UNDER comes down to a flip of the coin.  I don't believe an o/u to be a good way to make your money,...so why bet on it.  DON'T GET ME WRONG,...I think O/Us can "be off" by a CERTAIN margain, that looks "good".  But there are so many VARIABLES that can change if it goes O or U. 

IMO, I think you can grade a team and look at advantages and disadvantages that you can say are IN YOUR FAVOR (better than  50%) from TEAM to TEAM.

FIND A LINE THAT YOU ALREADY THINK THAT TEAM WILL "UNDOUBTEDLY" WIN STRAIGHT UP, and then ask whether the line is 50/50, or around 65/35.  Only bet on lines that,.. ARE THAT. 

DON'T BET TO JUST TO BET because you want to make a game fun, don't bet because it's on TV, don't bet because you are a FAN (FANATIC,...look it up in the dict... [More]


User: TexasD
Joined: January 2011
Location: Wisconsin
Team: Denver Broncos

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