TheBuddah's Blog

Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 04:18 PM

KC - rally thread

Let's do it



Posted Saturday, April 05, 2014 09:33 AM

Siena and Why

Let's look at some numbers:

-1  Fres    11.7    9.5      98    100    44.6%

     Siena    14.4    12.9   151   142   39.8%

What we have here is - Fres. opens up as a 1 pt favorite (donbest.com).   Both Fres and Siena have +/-   assist to turnover ratios.  Sagarin has fres. ranked at 98 and their schedule strength at 100.   Siena on the other hand has a rank of 151 and a schedule strength of 142.   Fres allows their opp. to shoot a 44.6% while on the road and siena allows 39.8% while at home. 

Based on previous history when you have this scenario.....the home team gets the straight up victory.   Thus i'm taking Siena.   Good luck all.

 



Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 12:06 AM

MLB Picks and Why - season long thread

I picked the Dodgers in their second game (Aus.) - thus i'm 0-1.

Until the pitchers have a game under their belt all we can go on is preseason data along with last years numbers and patterns.  Here are the picks for tomorrow - i'll provide my rationale for one selection below:

1. NYM   2.   Milw.   3.   Cincy 4. AZ  5.   Bos.   6.   Tex  7.   TB  8. Clev.

Let's look at the Stl/Cincy game:

115    Stl      Wainw.             1.59       10 (lower the better)

          Cinn   Cueto                4.61      28

Stl. opened up as a 115 favorite currently around 113.   Wainw. had a 1.59 era for the spring and ended last year with a numerical rating of 10 based on a formula I use from sagarin ratings.   While Cueto had a spring era of 4.61 and a numerical rating of 28.  On paper  Stl would be the team to go with, however when you look at the opening line of 115 for the away team and when pitchers have a numerical ratings of   10-28    history has shown the home team often gets the victory... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 27, 2014 08:48 PM

MLB system - Step by step - one more time

I tried posting the step by step mlb system I developed and use but had many posting issues.   I'll try it again in one thread probably 4 posts and see if it comes out okay:

     One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed.   That being said……the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.  

Recognizing, they are human – imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what you are doing – which the rest of this post is trying to help you do.

 



Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 09:10 PM

AZ and Why

A couple of things to keep in mind - one it's not familiar territory so I wouldn't go crazy.   Second, any time you have opening day, it's special but for betting purposes you gotta be careful considering you don't have a lot of current data.  That being said we do have data from last year, preseason data and the opening line on the game from vegas, lets look at some numbers:

120  LA   Ryu     25               Preseason Era    2.20

       AZ    Cahill  99                "                   "  - 7.88

Odds makers had Ryu opening up at - 120, currently around 116 - 120.   Last year ryu ended the season with a pitching composite of 25 (this is a formula I use based on sagarin rankings - lower the better).   While Cahill as a ranking of 99.    Based on preseason data - as you can see ryu had a great preseason compared to cahill.   Cahill had more strikeouts than innings pitched but gave up quite a few hits.   

Looking at my data base - historically when you have what I call a small favorite with a numerical rating of 25 or something ... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:28 PM

MLB system a step by step Part 4

F.         If the data conflicts with the streak – might avoid the game….if it’s in tune with the streak I may go with it. Either way something to be cautious with. 

G.         In my opinion – the odds makers are considering those factors along with other factors when it comes to providing the opening line so looking at that can skew my evaluation.

   For example, If the away team has a rating in the 30s and the home team has a rating in the 20’s……..and the home team is a Moderate favorite – the home team has won 11 of those situations and the away team has won 4.   Based on the percentages I’m taking the home team if that comes up in the future.   If you don’t put all your eggs in one basket you can make some money using this system.    Good luck to all of you.     

... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:22 PM

MLB system a step by step Part 3

   You could use those in your data set……and if you found a pattern existed and indicated the away team was winning most often – they would be the team to take.  You are coming up with an apples to apples comparison and looking for trends that prove themselves. 

   However, sometimes the ricky may be higher than the MOB – Which indicates that pitcher is very good.   Very few pitchers maintain a higher ricky throughout the season (scherzer, Harvey etc).   If they have a higher ricky than they do mob – the formula would go like this:   (Ricky – Mob) = P ?  .   For example, if you looked at Max Scherzer at the end of 2013 you would calculate it this way:  (10.18 – 8.90) = P 1 = P lets me know this guy has a higher ricky than mob.  If the numbers were (11 – 8) = P 3…etc.

A.      B.        

C.         If the starting pitcher pitches a great game but they end up with a no decision often the next game out they will struggle and give up a bunch of runs or lose the game.    I don’t do over/unders very often, however, if you have 2 pitchers who pitched great but got ND – take the over. 

... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:20 PM

MLB a step by step system Part 2

1.      A.      B.       

  +  (MOB – Ricky) )      

    +   (11.10   -   4.44)    =      18   (I round down)  

   The home team is a 130 favorite.      I consider baseball lines to be either small favorites (sf – 110 - 120)   moderate favorites (mf 125- 40)    Solid favorites (sof 145 - 160)    big favorites (bf 165 - 195)   or Huge favorites (HF 200 - over).   I would have a spreadsheet where I record the results of every game – assume the away team won -  it would then look like this:

... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:17 PM

MLB a step by step system Part 1

    One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed.   That being said……the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.  

2.       

3.      Recognizing, they are human – imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what you are doing – which the rest of this post is trying to help you do.



Posted Sunday, February 02, 2014 01:13 PM

Superbowl Sunday - Denver and why

From a handicapping stand point the SB is probably one of the worst sports to bet on - that being said we still will bet on it.  There are 3 things that affect a game  - QB change, Coaching Change or venue change (IMO based on what I have observed).   In this case - it's the venue change - data has been collected from teams playing at home or away - now they both are playing away (so the data we have can be skewed) - so while I have numbers - I find historically in the SB you do the opposite of what you would normally do.   Let's look at some numbers:

    Sea.  4   26   7   1  1    8

1  Den   15  1   7   27  2   17

Denver opens up as a 1 pt fav.  currently around 2.   Sea. is better in Rushing off. 4 to 15; Denver is better in passing 1 to 15; they are both tied in rushing def. 7 to 7; seattle is better in passing def. 1 to 27; sea is better in sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  Sea is better in 4 of the major categories while Denver is better in only passing off.   On paper during the playoffs - teams that have a better def. composite - (seat 8 - Denver 34) typically come out on top - it happened in both games two weeks ago - Denver had a better def. than NE and Sea had a better def. than sf.   In addition, look at schedule stren... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 08:29 PM

Boise St and why

Let's look at some numbers:

       Boise  11.3   10.4    61   89   43.2%

4.5  Nmex   16.3   10.8    55   65   38.8%

Nmex opens as a 4.5 fav. - currently around 5 - 5.5.    Nmex avgs. 16.3 assists per game while having 10.8 turnovers - while playing at home; Nmex has a sagarin rank of 55 and sched. strength of 65 and while at home they allow their opp. to shoot 38.8%.    Clearly Nmex looks like the pick at this point. 

Just so we understand - Boise avgs.  11.3 assists and 10.4 turnovers; sagarin rank of 61 - sched. strength of 89 and allows opps.to shoot 43.2% when on the road.  

Nmex is better in every category listed.   Based on historical results.....when you have a situation like this - home team is better in all categories with an opening line of 4.5 - the away team often gets the f/h cover, game cover and possibly wins the came su.   I'm on Boise for the game - small play on f/h and a little wager on Boise for the M/l.   Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 02:44 PM

Todays picks and why

We hit both the games last sunday - sf and Sd - let's see if we can get it today - let's look at some numbers:

      NE   9 10 30 18  6 25

7   Den  15 1  7  27  3  20

Den opens up as a 7 point fav. - currently around 5 - 5.5.  Ne is better in off. rushing rank and Def. Passing rank.  Den is better in off. Passing, def. rushing, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  This is what I call a 2/4  - AD situation ( I label everything A,B,C,D,E,F) - it helps me identify historical patterns.  When you have this situation with a high spread 6.5 or higher - the favored team usually covers by a significant margin. Thus I'm on DENVER. 

The second game....is a lot tougher  - lot's of times you see low scoring - often with an opening line of 3.5 - the home team squeaks out the cover.  I plan to take a Parlay with Denver on t spread/Seattle M/L.   The a straight play on the under.  Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, January 12, 2014 04:15 PM

San Diego and why

We hit the Sf game let's see if we can make it 2 in row. Let's look some numbers:

      SD   13   4   12   29   7   16

10  Den   15   1   7    27   2    21

Denver opens up as 10 point fav.  currently around 8.   Denver is better in off. passing, def. rushing, def. passing, sagarin rank.   Where sd is only better in rushing rank and sagarin sched. strength.  

If history repeats itself then sd should get the cover and possibly win su.   Last year when balt/denv matched up you had the exact scnenario as you do today - meaning balt. ad Denver were better in the same categories a above.   The only difference - the  line opened up as 9.5 for Denver.   I think Sd should get the cover.

 



Posted Sunday, January 12, 2014 12:30 PM

Sf and why

Let's look at some numbers:

PK  SF   3  30   4   7   3    9

   CAR  11   29  2   6   4    13

The game opens up as a pk - it's around 1 currently for sf.   Sf is better in rushing rank, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength; while CAR is better in off. Passing, def. rushing and def. passing.

There's several reasons why sf.   Playoffs are where the better teams rise to the top.   Last week the teams with the better sagarin rank won every game except the sand/cin game.   Yesterday Seattle won out right and the game was a push based on the opening line of 8 (I know a lot got a higherline).   In the indy game indy had a better sagarin - but the odds makers had NE as 7.5 favorites - that's a situation where you go with what the oddsmakers are indicating.  

In this particular game with the line opening as a pick - I believe the better sagarin team comes out on top. Just like last week when SF played GB and NO played Philly.  Low spreads - indicates home field advantage does't mean much and the better team wins.   Good luck all. 

 



Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 11:12 AM

MTenn and why

For the record on Saturday I was 0-2 on posted picks - ouch.   I try to answer good and bad posts - unfortunately I was travelling and couldn't make it back on here to respond.  

Let's look at some numbers: 

     Mdtn    65 65  99  119

6.5 Navy    62  84  61 70 

 

Navy opens up as a 6.5 favorite.  They are better in total off., sagarin rank and sagarin sched strength.  While midd. is only better in tot. def.    I call this a 1 B/3 situation.  

Historically over the last several years in bowl games with this pattern -  the top team has gotten the cover - percentage wise.  We had 22 games with this pattern and the top team has covered 15 of them.   Last  year Ohio played Monroe - mon opened up as a 6.5 favorite with similar numbers and ohio got the victory - su.   I'm on Middle in this game.  Good luck all. 



Posted Friday, December 27, 2013 12:06 PM

Syra and why

Let's look at some numbers:

        Syra   88   39   68   48

4. 5  Minn  108   41   51   46

Minn opens up as a 4.5 fav.  Syra is better in Tot. off   total def.  while minn is better in sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength. Identical sitiation as Col st/Washst.   Lot's of historical data supporting taking the top team (syra).   I like syra on the spread and won't be surprised if they win su.  Good luck all.   

 

 

 



Posted Tuesday, December 24, 2013 05:22 PM

Day 3 bowl pick

Warning up front becareful with this game - let's look at some numbers:

1.5 Oreg st   26  95 37  12

       Boise st  25  73 43  93

Oreg st. opens up as a 1.5 pt fav - currently around 3 - 3.5.   Boise is better in Total off and total def. rank while oreg. st is better in both sagarin rank as well as sagarin sched. strength.  This is what I call a 2 BS/2 WS situation - BS meaning the top team is better in the sagarin categories and the bottom team is worse in the sagarin categories.   Looking at the bowl games over the last few years - I only found a few games where this pattern came up (limited data - you gotta be careful) 

Nd/Miami - 4    Nd won 36 to 17, Wash/Boise st -5.5   Boise won 28 - 26 - failed to cover.   Historically not much to go on.  However, both of those games did go over the opening and closing total lines.  

Regarding a side to take - with limited data and a coaching change - I'm leaning Boise - for a couple of reasons - when you have a change (coach, venue or qb) - the team seems to say f...these mofos - and lets win for ourselves (USC verse fresno st), secondly the line opened at 1.5 - there's a reason it opened that small. 

Anyways - I'm taking the over and a small play on Boise.   Good luck all and merry xmas to all of you.



Posted Monday, December 23, 2013 12:39 AM

Day 2 bowl pick

Let's look at some numbers:

         Ohio  89   57   115   129

12.5  Ecar   31   30   56     108

Ecar opens up as 12.5 pt fav. Currently around 14.   Ecar happens to be better in all categories - tot. off, tot def., sagarin rank and sag. sched. strength.  Who should I take is the question - well when you look at previous bowl games last several years - there is a prominent trend - teams that are double digit favorites and are better in all categories and the bottom team (donbest.com) - overwhelmingly they win and cover - take Ecar.  Here are some games that support my pick- previous results from bowl games where the bottom team was better in all 4 categories and were double digit favorites - over the last few years:

Smu/Nev 12 - nev crushed 10-45; iowa/okl 15.5 - okl won 14-31; michst/ala 11 - ala 7-49; navy/azst 14.5 azst 28-62   tol/utast 10 - 15-41. 

I'm on Ecar - good luck all. You too Bucks:) 

Shadow - Cam - thanks for the kind words in day 1 post.

 

 



Posted Friday, December 20, 2013 11:43 PM

Day 1 Bowl picks

Last year we had a good run up until New years day - then got bit a couple of times - more data more patterns - hopefully better results - let's look at some numbers:

    Col st      28  80  88   106

4.5  Wash st   53  101   30   1

Was. st opens up as a 4.5 pt fav - currently I believe it's 5.5.   The opening line is found at donbest.com.

Col st is better in total off. and total def. ranks while wash st is better in sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  I call this a 2 WS/ 2 BS situation - ws stands for worst sagarin and the bs stands for better sagarin - this allows me to quickly identify previous results and patterns.  In order to do an apples to apples comparison you have to see how teams with these patterns  along with the opening lines (hopefully identical lines) perform in bowl games - not regular season games.  Looking at games played since 2008 typically the top team (col st) gets the cover and very often the su win.   There were no games with this pattern that had an identical 4.5 point favorite for the bottom team, however, there were several games indicating the top team typically gets the win but a couple of games that were close to 4.5 - we had smu/pitt - pitt opened at 5.5 and smu won the games 31-30; middten/somiss - opened at 3 middle ten won 4... [More]

Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 05:49 PM

Detroit and why

Let's. look at some numbers:

       Balt    29   20   7  14   18   32

5.5  Det.   20   3    6     25  15   25

Det. opens as a 5.5 fav...the line jumped to 6 - 6.5 and is now back around 5.5. Balt.  is better in Def. passing rank while det. is better in Off. rush, pass, def. rush, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.   When the line on the game is 5.5 points and the home team is better in 5 of the six categories - historically the home team gets the cover.  We saw this last week when cincy beat indy, last year  when az visited cincy and cincy won and covered in week 16.  In addition, when the line is close to 5.5 - 5, 6, 6.5 in these situations the home team once again typically gets the cover.   I'm on Detroit.   Good luck all.

Just for the record - I didn't fare to well with the sd/Denver game, I bet based on numbers and history -  hopefully Detroit can do it for us.      



Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 06:11 PM

Denver and why

Let's look at some numbers:

          Sd           20    4   19   28   14  19

10.5   Denver    12   1    7    29   2    20

Denver opens up as a 10.5 favorite - they are better in Off. rushing, Passing, Def. rush and sagarin rank.   While sd is better in Def. passing and sched. strength.   What I call a 2/4   DF situation.   This was the same situation Denver played with against ten - last week.    My data indicates in these situations with a large line the home team typically gets the cover - thus I'm on Denver. Good luck all.



Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 01:29 PM

Miami and Minn and why

Looking at the opening lines along with sagarin ranks and schedule strengths - there are patterns that align - tonite - take Minn and Miami.    Good luck all.

Posted Thursday, December 05, 2013 07:01 PM

Jax and why

Let's look at some numbers:

3  Hous   14   13   20    2    28   17

    Jax     32   23   29    23   31    3

Hous opens up as a 3 pt fav.   Houst is better in Off. rushing, passing, def. rushing, passing,   sagarn rank, while Jax is only better in Sagarin sched. strength.    When you have this type of situation - what I call a 5/ 1 F situation historically the home team not only covers the spread but win's su.   I'm taking Jax on the spread and a smaller wager on the mone line.   Good luck all. 

 



Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 11:13 AM

Today's Picks and why

Happy Thanksgiving all.   Let's look at the first game:

   GB    5   5   19   20   19   30

4 Det   22  3    4    28   16    26

GB is better in 2 categories - Off. rushing and Def passing.  While Det is better in Off. Passing, def. rushing, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.   Det. opens up as a 4 pt fav - currently around 6.5.  This scenario is what I call a 2 AD/4 situation.   Last week when Detroit played TB - identical situation but different opening line (which you must consider) and we saw TB win.   Eventhough the line is different - historically in these situations the away team can keep it close and occasionally pull out a su win.    I'm going with GB on the spread.

I recognize we have Flynn making his first start and the numbers reflect rogers and others numbers; however, because Flynn played a majority of the game last week - this change would be reflected in the opening line.  

In the other games - I like Dallas and Baltimore.   Good luck all.  



Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 12:49 AM

Texas Tech and why

Happy Thanksgiving all.   Let's look at some numbers:

           TT   9  81   44   53

5.5  Texas  46  56  36  32 

Texas is better in tot def. rank, Sagarin rank, and sagarin sched. strength.  While TT is only better in Total off. at 9.    The line opened up at 5.5 and is currently around 4.5 or 5.   I wish it was as simple as - texas is better in 3 categories that's who i'm going with - unfortunately sports betting doesn't work like that very often.   Historically when you have an opening line between 5.5 and 6.5 with this type of scenario - what I call a 1 A / 3 situation - take the away team - they often win straight up.   Thus i'm taking TT. 

The other game - i'd be really careful on,however, for action sake - i'm going with Miss. st.  Once again happy thanks giving and good luck all.  

 



Posts:  1 2 3 4 5   »