TheBuddah's Blog

Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 05:44 PM

Yanks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         NY Phelps    82

150  Tex    Darvish   16

Tex opens up as a 150 fav (donbest.com) .   Phelps has a 82 numerical rating compared to Darvish with a 16 (lower the better).

On Paper Darvish is better by a wide margin.  Historically when you have two pitchers with these numerical ratings (#s are from sagarin.com - using my formula for the rating) and an opening line of 150 - history has sided on the away team.  Other picks tonite - Bos. - 1 ; Phillies; Sf - 1.

Good luck all.



Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 12:14 PM

MLB Picks and Why

 Lot's of opportunities today, let's look at some numbers:

         Balt.  Chen          57

150  Oak    Hammel      11

Oak opens up as a 150 fav. (donbest.com) .   Chen has a numerical rating of 57 and Hammel   11 (lower the better).   The numerical ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give every pitcher a numerical rating - thus an apples to apples comparison.   At this stage you would think Oak is the team to take, however, it doesn't work that way....you need to take into account both the opening line and what history has shown when you have teams with these or very similar numerical ratings.   In this case the data overwhelmingly supports taking Baltimore.   Thus I take Baltimore.

In addition, I think - Atl., NY yanks., CWS, LAA, Tor (-1)

Good luck all.

 

 



Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 06:31 PM

American L. and why

I typically don't put much on these games due to too many variables (pitchers lasting an inning or two, pitchers and hitters not so in tune with each other based limited matchups, etc.)   however, there is something interesting about this game.  

The opening line (donbest.com)  was initially - 110 for the national league, however, it changed last night to +100 for the AL.    Based on my years of doing this I keep track of these non typical lines.  I find when you have a line of +100 - you lessen your reliability on Pitcher data and go with the trends of a +100 line.    What my data indicates - the home team with a line of +100 has strong record of  25(w) - 7(L) - regular season games over the last few years.  Considering we don't have a lot to go on - I believe this may translate to the AL winning.   I'm on the A.L.    good luck all.      



Posted Sunday, July 06, 2014 11:12 AM

Philly and why

Let's look at some numbers:

        Phil  Burn.  45

160  Pitt.  Locke  37

Pitt opens up as a 160 favorite (donbest.com).  Burnett has a numerical rating of 45 (the rating is based on numbers from sagarin and a formula I use to calculate their rating - an apples to apples approach).  While locke has a rating of 37 (lower the better).   One would think Pitt would be the team to go with considering Locke has a better rating - unfortunately it doesn't work like that.   You gotta go a step further - look at the opening line the oddsmakers put on the game 160 - now do a comparison of what historically has occurred when you have two pitchers with numerical ratings of 45 - 37 and an opening line of 160.   I go to my spreadsheet and I find a high percentage of games where the away team comes out on top in these situations at a pretty consistent rate - thus I go with Philly.

Other picks based on this method:  Wash, Sf,Det,CWS,Oak.  Good luck all.

 



Posted Saturday, July 05, 2014 10:12 PM

gotta love morse

yeah baby

Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 06:10 PM

NY and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         Bos   Lackey    22

110   NY    Whitley   77

NY opens up as a 110 fav. (donbest.com), currently around 103.   Lackey has a numerical rating of 22 and whitely 77 (a formula I use based on numbers from sagarin.com).   Historically when teams have these numbers and an opening line of 110 - the home team often gets the victory.  Yesterdays game between the giants and reds was almost identical to this game.....unfortunately the giants blew it, hopefully the yanks will close it out.  I'm taking the yanks in the first 5 and the under along with the yanks for the game.  Good luck all.

.....................................................................................................

let's look at this game:

       Cinncy  Simone   23

110 Sf.   Cain              77

Sf opens up as a 110 fav. (donbest.com)    simone has a rating of 23 (lower the better) and cain has a rating of 77.  The ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to come up with a rating.  When you compare the numerical ratings along with the opening line of 110 for the home team......history shows the hom... [More]

Posted Sunday, June 01, 2014 12:49 PM

Picks and why

I've been doing well lately - thought i'd share:

Cubs, Minn, TB, Balt., Col.

Let's look at the TB game:

         TB   Bedard       70

150   Bos  Lester        23

I use #s from Sagarin.com to come up with a numerical rating for each pitcher - lower the better.    Bos opens up as a 150 favorite (donbest.com).    Bedard has a rating of 70 while lester has a rating of 23.  Clearly on paper  Lester is better.   Historically, when you have a line of 150 and ratings of 70 for the away team and 23 for the home team.....more often than not the away team gets the victory.   Thus I go with the away team.   I recognize Boston has been rolling.....but sometimes you got to buck the trend and this seems like a spot where that happens.  The same rationale supports the picks above.....based on the opening line and the numerical numbers and trends.....the teams above are plays as well.   Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, May 11, 2014 12:16 PM

MLB Picks and why

Yesterday we had Toronto but it didn't work out for us.  Let's look at some numbers:

        NYY   Phelps    65

135  Milw   Garza     47

Milw opens up as a 135 favorite currently around 128. 

Phelps has a rating of 65 and Garza 47.   These ratings are based on a formula I use from sagarin.com .  The lower the number the better; however, for betting purposes it's not as cut and dry as taking the team with the better ranking.    When you have these numerical ratings.....65 and 47 and a line of 135.....the away team more often gets the victory (based on past history with these lines and numbers) - thus you go with the Yankees.

Other games showing strong percentages:  Toronto (yes again);Col.; Miam; TB; Oak; Tex; Sea.

Good luck all.

 

 

 



Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 10:56 AM

Toronto and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         LAA       Skaggs  37  (lower the better)

110  Toronto    Happ     47

Toronto opens up as a 110 favorite.  Currently around 115.  The formula I use is based on sagarin rankings.    if you go to sagarin.com - it will take you to usa today.....and you will see his data for pitchers and hitters listed.    (rank +  (Mob - Ricky) )

I keep track of the numerical rating for each pitcher as well as the line and the result for each game - for the past 5 seasons.   Your just looking at percentages.   In this case the Home team wins more often than the away team (based on history with similar line and numerical ratings) - at a significant margin.  Thus you go with Toronto.  

Good luck all.

 



Posted Wednesday, May 07, 2014 08:55 PM

yanks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

        NY        Nuno    120

135  LAA  Santiago   47

LAA angels open up as a 135 favorite. Currently around 137.   Nuno has a numerical rank of 120 while Santiago has a rank of 47 - lower the number the better.   On paper Santiago is clearly the better pitcher, however, when you have an opening line of 135 and you have pitchers with these ranks - historically the away team gets the victory.   Thus I'm taking the Yanks.   Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, April 27, 2014 12:43 PM

NBA Picks and why

Solid picks are GS and Portland - here's why:

1.5 LAC   1  14    44%

      GS    7   8     43%

We have LAC opens up as a 1.5 pt Fav (donbest.com) - currently around 2.   Sagarin (sagarin.com)  has LAC ranked 1 and a sched. strength of 14 and they allow 44% shooting percentage def. while playng on the road (statfox.com).    On the other hand, GS has a rank of 7 sched. strength of 8 and a shooting percentage def of 43.   When you compare this scenario to previous games played with these (similar) numbers - the home team typically gets the win/cover -   thus i'm on GS.   

Different line and numbers for the Houst/port game but the home team should cover the 2.5 line.based on previous results with similar numbers. - thus i'm on Portland.

Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 04:18 PM

KC - rally thread

Let's do it



Posted Saturday, April 05, 2014 09:33 AM

Siena and Why

Let's look at some numbers:

-1  Fres    11.7    9.5      98    100    44.6%

     Siena    14.4    12.9   151   142   39.8%

What we have here is - Fres. opens up as a 1 pt favorite (donbest.com).   Both Fres and Siena have +/-   assist to turnover ratios.  Sagarin has fres. ranked at 98 and their schedule strength at 100.   Siena on the other hand has a rank of 151 and a schedule strength of 142.   Fres allows their opp. to shoot a 44.6% while on the road and siena allows 39.8% while at home. 

Based on previous history when you have this scenario.....the home team gets the straight up victory.   Thus i'm taking Siena.   Good luck all.

 



Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 12:06 AM

MLB Picks and Why - season long thread

I picked the Dodgers in their second game (Aus.) - thus i'm 0-1.

Until the pitchers have a game under their belt all we can go on is preseason data along with last years numbers and patterns.  Here are the picks for tomorrow - i'll provide my rationale for one selection below:

1. NYM   2.   Milw.   3.   Cincy 4. AZ  5.   Bos.   6.   Tex  7.   TB  8. Clev.

Let's look at the Stl/Cincy game:

115    Stl      Wainw.             1.59       10 (lower the better)

          Cinn   Cueto                4.61      28

Stl. opened up as a 115 favorite currently around 113.   Wainw. had a 1.59 era for the spring and ended last year with a numerical rating of 10 based on a formula I use from sagarin ratings.   While Cueto had a spring era of 4.61 and a numerical rating of 28.  On paper  Stl would be the team to go with, however when you look at the opening line of 115 for the away team and when pitchers have a numerical ratings of   10-28    history has shown the home team often gets the victory... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 27, 2014 08:48 PM

MLB system - Step by step - one more time

I tried posting the step by step mlb system I developed and use but had many posting issues.   I'll try it again in one thread probably 4 posts and see if it comes out okay:

     One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed.   That being said……the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.  

Recognizing, they are human – imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what you are doing – which the rest of this post is trying to help you do.

 



Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 09:10 PM

AZ and Why

A couple of things to keep in mind - one it's not familiar territory so I wouldn't go crazy.   Second, any time you have opening day, it's special but for betting purposes you gotta be careful considering you don't have a lot of current data.  That being said we do have data from last year, preseason data and the opening line on the game from vegas, lets look at some numbers:

120  LA   Ryu     25               Preseason Era    2.20

       AZ    Cahill  99                "                   "  - 7.88

Odds makers had Ryu opening up at - 120, currently around 116 - 120.   Last year ryu ended the season with a pitching composite of 25 (this is a formula I use based on sagarin rankings - lower the better).   While Cahill as a ranking of 99.    Based on preseason data - as you can see ryu had a great preseason compared to cahill.   Cahill had more strikeouts than innings pitched but gave up quite a few hits.   

Looking at my data base - historically when you have what I call a small favorite with a numerical rating of 25 or something ... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:28 PM

MLB system a step by step Part 4

F.         If the data conflicts with the streak – might avoid the game….if it’s in tune with the streak I may go with it. Either way something to be cautious with. 

G.         In my opinion – the odds makers are considering those factors along with other factors when it comes to providing the opening line so looking at that can skew my evaluation.

   For example, If the away team has a rating in the 30s and the home team has a rating in the 20’s……..and the home team is a Moderate favorite – the home team has won 11 of those situations and the away team has won 4.   Based on the percentages I’m taking the home team if that comes up in the future.   If you don’t put all your eggs in one basket you can make some money using this system.    Good luck to all of you.     

... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:22 PM

MLB system a step by step Part 3

   You could use those in your data set……and if you found a pattern existed and indicated the away team was winning most often – they would be the team to take.  You are coming up with an apples to apples comparison and looking for trends that prove themselves. 

   However, sometimes the ricky may be higher than the MOB – Which indicates that pitcher is very good.   Very few pitchers maintain a higher ricky throughout the season (scherzer, Harvey etc).   If they have a higher ricky than they do mob – the formula would go like this:   (Ricky – Mob) = P ?  .   For example, if you looked at Max Scherzer at the end of 2013 you would calculate it this way:  (10.18 – 8.90) = P 1 = P lets me know this guy has a higher ricky than mob.  If the numbers were (11 – 8) = P 3…etc.

A.      B.        

C.         If the starting pitcher pitches a great game but they end up with a no decision often the next game out they will struggle and give up a bunch of runs or lose the game.    I don’t do over/unders very often, however, if you have 2 pitchers who pitched great but got ND – take the over. 

... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:20 PM

MLB a step by step system Part 2

1.      A.      B.       

  +  (MOB – Ricky) )      

    +   (11.10   -   4.44)    =      18   (I round down)  

   The home team is a 130 favorite.      I consider baseball lines to be either small favorites (sf – 110 - 120)   moderate favorites (mf 125- 40)    Solid favorites (sof 145 - 160)    big favorites (bf 165 - 195)   or Huge favorites (HF 200 - over).   I would have a spreadsheet where I record the results of every game – assume the away team won -  it would then look like this:

... [More]

Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 12:17 PM

MLB a step by step system Part 1

    One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed.   That being said……the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.  

2.       

3.      Recognizing, they are human – imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what you are doing – which the rest of this post is trying to help you do.



Posted Sunday, February 02, 2014 01:13 PM

Superbowl Sunday - Denver and why

From a handicapping stand point the SB is probably one of the worst sports to bet on - that being said we still will bet on it.  There are 3 things that affect a game  - QB change, Coaching Change or venue change (IMO based on what I have observed).   In this case - it's the venue change - data has been collected from teams playing at home or away - now they both are playing away (so the data we have can be skewed) - so while I have numbers - I find historically in the SB you do the opposite of what you would normally do.   Let's look at some numbers:

    Sea.  4   26   7   1  1    8

1  Den   15  1   7   27  2   17

Denver opens up as a 1 pt fav.  currently around 2.   Sea. is better in Rushing off. 4 to 15; Denver is better in passing 1 to 15; they are both tied in rushing def. 7 to 7; seattle is better in passing def. 1 to 27; sea is better in sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  Sea is better in 4 of the major categories while Denver is better in only passing off.   On paper during the playoffs - teams that have a better def. composite - (seat 8 - Denver 34) typically come out on top - it happened in both games two weeks ago - Denver had a better def. than NE and Sea had a better def. than sf.   In addition, look at schedule stren... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 08:29 PM

Boise St and why

Let's look at some numbers:

       Boise  11.3   10.4    61   89   43.2%

4.5  Nmex   16.3   10.8    55   65   38.8%

Nmex opens as a 4.5 fav. - currently around 5 - 5.5.    Nmex avgs. 16.3 assists per game while having 10.8 turnovers - while playing at home; Nmex has a sagarin rank of 55 and sched. strength of 65 and while at home they allow their opp. to shoot 38.8%.    Clearly Nmex looks like the pick at this point. 

Just so we understand - Boise avgs.  11.3 assists and 10.4 turnovers; sagarin rank of 61 - sched. strength of 89 and allows opps.to shoot 43.2% when on the road.  

Nmex is better in every category listed.   Based on historical results.....when you have a situation like this - home team is better in all categories with an opening line of 4.5 - the away team often gets the f/h cover, game cover and possibly wins the came su.   I'm on Boise for the game - small play on f/h and a little wager on Boise for the M/l.   Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 02:44 PM

Todays picks and why

We hit both the games last sunday - sf and Sd - let's see if we can get it today - let's look at some numbers:

      NE   9 10 30 18  6 25

7   Den  15 1  7  27  3  20

Den opens up as a 7 point fav. - currently around 5 - 5.5.  Ne is better in off. rushing rank and Def. Passing rank.  Den is better in off. Passing, def. rushing, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  This is what I call a 2/4  - AD situation ( I label everything A,B,C,D,E,F) - it helps me identify historical patterns.  When you have this situation with a high spread 6.5 or higher - the favored team usually covers by a significant margin. Thus I'm on DENVER. 

The second game....is a lot tougher  - lot's of times you see low scoring - often with an opening line of 3.5 - the home team squeaks out the cover.  I plan to take a Parlay with Denver on t spread/Seattle M/L.   The a straight play on the under.  Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, January 12, 2014 04:15 PM

San Diego and why

We hit the Sf game let's see if we can make it 2 in row. Let's look some numbers:

      SD   13   4   12   29   7   16

10  Den   15   1   7    27   2    21

Denver opens up as 10 point fav.  currently around 8.   Denver is better in off. passing, def. rushing, def. passing, sagarin rank.   Where sd is only better in rushing rank and sagarin sched. strength.  

If history repeats itself then sd should get the cover and possibly win su.   Last year when balt/denv matched up you had the exact scnenario as you do today - meaning balt. ad Denver were better in the same categories a above.   The only difference - the  line opened up as 9.5 for Denver.   I think Sd should get the cover.

 



Posted Sunday, January 12, 2014 12:30 PM

Sf and why

Let's look at some numbers:

PK  SF   3  30   4   7   3    9

   CAR  11   29  2   6   4    13

The game opens up as a pk - it's around 1 currently for sf.   Sf is better in rushing rank, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength; while CAR is better in off. Passing, def. rushing and def. passing.

There's several reasons why sf.   Playoffs are where the better teams rise to the top.   Last week the teams with the better sagarin rank won every game except the sand/cin game.   Yesterday Seattle won out right and the game was a push based on the opening line of 8 (I know a lot got a higherline).   In the indy game indy had a better sagarin - but the odds makers had NE as 7.5 favorites - that's a situation where you go with what the oddsmakers are indicating.  

In this particular game with the line opening as a pick - I believe the better sagarin team comes out on top. Just like last week when SF played GB and NO played Philly.  Low spreads - indicates home field advantage does't mean much and the better team wins.   Good luck all. 

 



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