TheBuddah's Blog

Posted Sunday, November 16, 2014 06:53 PM

Indy and why

Let's look at some numbers:

        NE   19   8   22   14       5    21

2.5 Indy    14   1    9    27      4    15

Indy opens up as a 2.5 fav (donbest.com), currently around 3.  Indy is better in Off. rushing rank, Off. Passing rank and def. rushing rank.  Ne is only better in Def. passing rank.   Indy is also better in both sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  

When the home team is better in all categories but 1 and the line opens at 2.5 for the home team - historically - (not a lot of data) but the home team gets the win and the cover.   Thus i'm on Indy.

In addition, I'm in a pool based on the spread - the guy summarizes what the close to 250 people do each week.   When a lot of folks favor one team or another - I pay attention and notice sometimes (not always) the opposite team covers or wins su.   This week 51 folks picked NE + 3 while only 10 took Indy. 

When my data and the public don't align it's a good thing - usually. I do believe you need to consider consensus - don't just always  rely on it.

Good luck all.

  

 



Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2014 11:03 AM

Happy Vets day - Buff and Nill and why

Thanks vets and all those currently serving including my nephew - I appreciate what you do and have done.

Let's look at some numbers:

-3 Akron   81   48   122   119   (241)

    Buff     62    86    152   144  (301)

Akron opens up as a 3 pt fav (donbest.com) -currently around 3.5.

Buff is better in Total off rank at 62 vice 81 for Akron.   Akron is better in total def. rank, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.

Akron has a composite of 241 (adding sagarin rank to sagarin sched.) while Buff has a composite of 301.  As you can see we are not dealing with the cream of the crop regarding teams playing tonite.  

When you look at previous games played where the opening line is small - 3, 2.5, 3.5 - with similar numerical ratings for each team - the home team often gets the cover but usually wins su.  Thus i'm on Buff.   Just last week we had a very very similar situation with Conn/Army and Army ended up winning su.  That's the most recent example that supports why I believe Buff. gets the victory tonite.   Taking them on the spread and a small play on the M/line.

Looking at the Tol./Nill game:

      Toledo    16   97   71   89&n... [More]

Posted Friday, November 07, 2014 11:08 AM

NBA Picks and why

I've been doing pretty good with my NBA non-posted plays - thought i'd share/post.   Let's look at some numbers:

    Atl   15    8      (23)

3 Char  18  14     (32)

Char. opens up as a 3 point fav. (donbest.com) currently around 1.5.

Atl has a sagarin ranking of 15 and a sched. strength of 8.   Char. has a ranking of 18 and a sched. strength of 14.   Their composites are 23 and 32 (lower the better).   Unfortunately just looking at the numerical numbers and taking the team that has the lowest composite doesn't always mean you have the winner. 

However, when you have a team that has the worst sagarin composite (rank and sched  - added together) along with these  numerical ratings and the home team has an opening line of 3 - history has shown the home team typically gets the cover.   This occurred the other night with Miami/Charlotte, lastnight with Dallas/Portland, tor/Miami, okc/Brooklyn.

I'm taking Charlotte. Other picks that are on the side of history (different patterns but strong probability of success):

Boston, Denver, Phoenix, Utah, Detroit

Good luck all. 

 

 



Posted Monday, November 03, 2014 08:19 PM

Giants and Why

3  Indy   13   1   9    21    5     15

    NYG 15   24  22  25  20    7

Let's look at some numbers:

Indy opens as a 3 point fav. currently around the same.   Indy is better in Off. rushing rank, Passing rank, Def. rushing rank, Def. Passing rank.   Indy is alos better in Sagarin rank of 5.  Giants are only better in Sagarin sched. strength of 7.    When you have this situation, where the away team is better in 5 categories and the home team is only better in sched. strength along with an opening line of 3 - history indicates the home team typically wins su or will keep it very close.  I'm on the Giants - good luck all.



Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 06:27 PM

KC and why

Record stands at 13-5 in posted plays - lost the first game of the w.series came back with KC in the second game.    Let's look at some numbers:

         KC Sheilds        30

170   SF Bumgarner  11

Sf opens up as a 170 fav. currently around 155.   Clearly on paper Bumgarner is a better pitcher - his numerical rating (numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give each pitcher a numerical rating - apples to apples) is 11 while shields is 30 (lower the better).   When you look at the opening line (donbest.com) and when you have numerical ratings of 30 -11 - history shows the away team very often gets the victory.  This has occurred this year already when Baltimore - Norris defeated Detroit - Price  and during the regular season (first half) a bunch of times over the last few years.   Either way good luck to all of you in whatever choice you make.



Posted Tuesday, October 21, 2014 12:22 AM

Ws Gm 1 - KC and why

Record stands at 12-4 this includes sf m/line play as well as sf - 1.5 in the last game played against stlouis.  We have had a good run - let's see if we can keep it going.   Let's look at some numbers:

105  SF   Bumgarner    11

        KC    Sheilds         30

Sf opens up as a 105 favorite currently around 107 - 110 (depending on who your book is) - see donbest.com.   Bum. has a numerical rating of 11 and shields 30 (lower the better) - the numbers come from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give each starting pitcher a numerical rating.  

Based on my numerical ratings - on paper Bum is clearly a better pitcher.  However, as we have witnessed this season as well has during the playoffs you can't always bet according to who the better starting pitcher is on paper and expect to win every time. Unfortunately it doesn't work that way.   This is why you have to look at the opening line of 105 and try to find games where the starting pitchers had numerical ratings of 11 and 30 respectively.  

Based on history - when you have an opening line of 105 and the numerical ratings above (or very close) - the home team often takes home the victory.   I wouldn't go crazy but I think KC wins game 1.   Good luck all e... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 05:31 PM

SF and why

Record stands at 8-3, unfortunately the O's didn't do it for us on Friday.  No plays yesterday.   Let's look at some numbers:

        SF  Peavy   48

118  Stl Lynn       22

Stl. opens up as a 118 fav - (donbest.com),  currently around 130.

Whenever you have lines that open up that do not end in 0 or 5 - meaning 120, 145, etc.....you gotta b/careful - imo .  This was the case yesterday with both O's game (-122) and the Stl. game        (-134). 

This game is another b/c game due to the opening line being 118 for stlouis.   However, I do keep track of games with these odd opening lines, the data indicates with these lines along with the numerical ratings above that more often than not the away team picks up the win.  Once again - b/c but i'm going with the Giants.

Good luck all.   

 



Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 10:59 AM

NFL Picks and Why

Let's look at some numbers on the Balt/TB game:

3  Balt    12    13    8      27     11     16     

    TB      24   29   18     30      28     13

Balt. opens up as a 3 pt fav.  Currently around 3.5.  Balt is better in off. rushing rank, off. passing rank, def. rush, def. pass, sagarin rank.   TB is only better in sagarin sched. rank at 13. 

You would think Baltimore dominating like this - they should crush, unfortunately it's not that easy.   History has shown - when you have this situation and the opening line is 3 points - the home team not only covers but wins out right - I'm going with TB.

Other picks on the side of history:   clev, Jax, gb, cincy,  under in the dallas/sea game, philly, sd

Good luck all.

 



Posted Thursday, October 09, 2014 08:50 PM

Gm 1 - Balt. and why

8-2 after the Giants won Tuesday night. Hopefully we can keep it rolling into the next round.  Let's look at some numbers:

         KC  Sheilds   30

125  Balt. Tillman    25

Balt. opens up as a 125 fav. (donbest.com), currently around 130. Sheilds has a numerical rating of 30, while Tillman has a rating of 25 (lower the better).   The numbers for each pitcher are from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give each sp a numerical rating.

In order to determine who is going to win, I look at games previously played by teams with numerical ratings exactly/close to the game being evaluated.   You also must consider the opening line in any type of handicapping effort because at the end of the day - they have the resources and time to put a number on a game for a reason, the exact reason, you nor I know exactly.   Yes, we can speculate, left vs right, day of the week, hitters, bullpen, better coaching, etc.

The reason I only look at sp numbers - I read a book about a sportsbook manager who said 95% of the opening line of a game was based on the starting pitcher, one year they dropped it down to 90% and got killed.    To me that means it's all about the tarting pitchers and the tone they set.    

Based on history (includes previous playoff games played and games playe... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 07, 2014 10:30 AM

sf and why

7-2 thus far.   We hit wash yesterday let's see if we can keep it rolling.   Let's look at some numbers:

120  Wash  Gio   49

         Sf      Vogel.   47

Wash opens up as a 120 fav. currently around 125-130 in some places.   Gio has a numerical rating of 49 while vogel. has a rating of 47 (lower the better).   Based on paper it is a tight matchup.   Looking at history where each pitcher has similar numerical ratings along with a line of 120 - the data overwhelmingly indicates the home tam gets the win.    Thus i'm on Sf.   Being from the dc area I wouldn't mind seeing wash do it however, looking at it from from an investment standpoint - gotta go with the giants.   

good luck all.  

 



Posted Sunday, October 05, 2014 11:31 AM

Todays Picks and why

Yesterday we hit the under in the dodgers game and lost the r/line bet of wash.  Record thus far in the playoffs 4-2.   The best game on the board IMO is KC.   Let's look at some numbers:

        LAA  Wilson   46

135  KC Sheilds  30

KC opens up as a 135 fav, currently around 121 (donbest.com).  Wilson has a numerical rating of 46 while Sheilds 30 (lower the better).   The lower rating doesn't automatically mean you have a winner - you have to look at history when pitchers had those numbers and an opening line of 135.   Historically - the data overwhelmingly indicates the home team gets the victory.   Thus you go with KC. 

The first game - Norris has a rating of 35 and price 10.   In this case det. opens as a 175 favorite.   I don't have a lot of data with this scenario but some of it indicates the away team often gets the victory.    I'm taking Baltimore.

Good luck all.

  

 



Posted Saturday, October 04, 2014 12:16 PM

Saturdays picks and why

we are 3-1 on the season.....hit Baltimore yesterday and unfortunately wash....didn't win nor cover on the r/l.   Let's look at some numbers:

        Sf   Hudson        36

200  Wash  zimmer.   7

Wash.opens up as a 200 fav. currently around 210.   Hudson has a numerical rank of 36 while zimm has a rank of 7 (lower the better).   The numerical ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com  and a formula I use to make an apples to apples comparison.   

History has shown when the away pitcher has a rank of 36 and the home team has a rank of 7 - the home team wins su, in addition I have an exact situation with these identical numbers and line that resulted in the home team winning on the r/l.   I can't lay 200 su on anything so I plan to do the following: 1.   Take Wash. r/line    2.  Wash and Dodgers in a parlay su    3. Under 7 in the dodgers game.  

Good luck all.    

 

 



Posted Thursday, October 02, 2014 11:41 PM

Friday early Picks and why

We hit sf Weds. and Balt tonite.2-0.......let's see if we can keep it rollin for Friday.

Let's look at some numbers:

        Det   Verlander    49

109  Balt    Chen         37

Balt opens up as a 109 favorite - currently around 105 (donbest.com) .    Verlander comes in with a rating of 49 and chen 37 (lower the better).   The numerical rating comes from numbers at sagarin.com and a formula I use to give every starting pitcher a rating.   Using the opening number 109  along with pitchers with these numerical ratings......you try to mimic history and do accordingly.

In this case as was the case in the Sf. game Weds night (107) - the oddsmakers have made Baltimore as a 109 fav.   When you have these odd lines - 107, 109, the team that is often favored in these situations are the teams to take.   We had this twice during the playoffs in 2009 and again 2011 - both home teams won.   

I'm taking Balt. again.  In addition, other picks on the side of history:   Take wash on the r/line.  

Good luck all.   



Posted Wednesday, October 01, 2014 07:37 PM

Sf and why

Let's look at some numbers:

107   SFG   Bumg. 11

         Pitt     Volq.   27

Sf. opens up as a 107 fav.  Currently around 112 (donbest.com).  Based on numbers from sagarin and a formula I use to give each pitcher a numerical rating.....Bumg. has a rating of 11 whle volquez. has a 27 rating (lower the better).  

A couple of interesting notes about this game.   Typically the opening line on a game opens with a 0 or a 5 at the end (120, 125, 115, etc).  When you have these games with lines like 107 or 112 like last nights game......you find the team that has these odd numbers -who happen to be favored very often win particularly in the playoffs.    Based on 5 years of playoff history - I haven't seen an opening line of 107, however, there was one game where the line was 106 with similar numerical ratings as this game and the away team won.    I'm going with the Giants but this is a becareful game. 

Good luck all. 

 



Posted Friday, September 26, 2014 02:44 PM

ODU and why

let's look at some numbers on this game:

        Middle TNst    50   104  94  108       (202)

3.5  ODU                 39   87    125   173    (298)

Odu opens up as 3.5 fav - currently around 3.  Odu is better in total off rank at 39, totl def. rank of 87.   Mdtn is better in Sagarin rank -94 and sagarin sched. strength of 108.   The 202 and the 298 are composites of both sagarin rank and schedule strength.   

When you have the home team favored and they have the worst sagarin composite -  with this pattern - ODU should crush.  

We have had this scenario a couple of times this season - week 2 Ntex over Smu and week 3 when Mizzou beat UCF. I'm on ODU - good luck all.   

 



Posted Wednesday, September 24, 2014 12:24 PM

Yanks and why

9-5 last two days.....let's look at some numbers:

        Bal   Norris      34

120  NYY   Greene  75

NY opens up as a 120 fav. currently around 115.  Norris has a numerical rating of 34 while Greene has 75 (lower the better).  The numbers come from sagarin.com and a formula I use to evaluate each starting pitcher.   When you look at history where the home team opens up as a 120 favorite and the pitchers have these numerical ratings - the home team typicaly wins - thus i'm on the yanks.

other picks on the side of history:

Cincy, Sd - 1, Stl, LA Dodgers - 2,  Sea

Good luck all.

 



Posted Tuesday, September 23, 2014 07:02 PM

Cubs and why

Went 5-2 yesterday...hopefully we can keep it rolling....let's look at some numbers:

130  Stl Miller    32

        Chic           28

Stl opens up as 130 fav....currently around 118.    Miller has a rating of 32 while Hendricks has a rating of 28 (lower the better).  When you look at the opening line of 130 and the numerical ratings of each pitcher......history indicates the home team typically gets the victory - thus you go with the cubs.

Others pick on the side of history:  Wash -1, Atl, Mia, NYY r/l, SF, CWS r/L

Good luck all

 

 

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's look at some numbers:

         Sf   Peavy    50

120   LAD Haren   37

What we have here is Dodgers open up as a 120 favorite (donbest.com) - currently around 116.  Peavy has a numerical rating of 50 and Haren 37 (lower the better).   These numbers are based on a formula I use to give every starting pitcher a numerical rating and the numbers come from sagarin.com.

The reason I like SF....when you look at history and see games with pitchers having these numerical ratings along with an op... [More]

Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 04:26 PM

SF and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         Sf   Peavy    50

120   LAD Haren   37

What we have here is Dodgers open up as a 120 favorite (donbest.com) - currently around 116.  Peavy has a numerical rating of 50 and Haren 37 (lower the better).   These numbers are based on a formula I use to give every starting pitcher a numerical rating and the numbers come from sagarin.com.

The reason I like SF....when you look at history and see games with pitchers having these numerical ratings along with an opening line for the home team at 120....the away team overwhelmingly gets the victory and very often (if your book allows it - they win by a couple of runs if not more).   This was the case recently when Verlander pitched against vargas on Friday and Detroit won by 9 runs or so.    There have been other games but this was the most recent.  

Other picks on the side of history - Stlouis r/l, Col, KC, AZ, Houston, CWS.  

Good luck all.

 

 



Posted Saturday, September 20, 2014 10:28 AM

CFB Picks and why

Lots of opportunities - let's look at some numbers:

     Tulane   81  84   123   115      (238)

17  Duke    30   38   44     188     (232)

Duke opens up as a 17 pt. fav (donbest.com)  currently around 16.5  

Tulane ranks 81 in total off. 84 in total def.   has a 123 sagarin rank and 115 sagarin schedule strength.   When you total the sagarin numbers you get  238 for Tulane and 232 for Duke.

As you can see Duke is better in every category except Schedule strength.  History has shown - when you have this scenario, along with a sagarin totals that are close - the home team usually crushes when you have a double digit spread - thus i'm on Duke.

Other picks on the side of history, that should cover even though in some cases the lines have gone up:

Pitt, Wisc, Gtech, oreg st, over in Sj/minn, rutg, mizzou, penn st, ball st, cmich, wyo, colo, midtn st, wash., Alabama, cincy, miss st, neb, laffyet

Good luck all

 



Posted Wednesday, September 10, 2014 09:31 PM

Pitt and why

Went 5-2 in posted plays for week 1.   Let's look at some numbers:

     Pitt    11   2   27    13   17    30

3  Balt    20   7    9      25    18   21

 

Balt opens up as a 3 pt fav. currently around 2.5.    Balt. is ranked 20th in off rushing rank, 7 in off. passing, 9 in def. rushing, 25 in def. passing.   Also, balt. has a sagarin rank of 18 and sched. strength of 21.    Comparing both teams we find Pitt is better in 4 categories while balt is only better in 2 (Def. rushing and sched. strength).

What does all of this mean - basically when you have an away team that is better in these 4 categories and a home team tat is better in these two categories and an opening line of 3 for the home team - history has shown the away team gets the cover and often the su victory - thus I go with pitt. 

Good luck all.

 



Posted Monday, September 08, 2014 09:00 PM

Sandiego and why

Went 4-2 yesterday in posted plays.    Let's look at some numbers for this game:

      SD   13  4  12   29    9    14

3.5  AZ   23  13   1   14   7     3

AZ opens up as a 3.5 fav currently around 3.   Az is better in every category except off. rushing rank and off. passing rank.  Once again history has shown when you have this type of pattern - what I call 2/4  AB(I label each category A-F and the 2 team is better in the first two categories - thus AB).   Historically when you have this situation the Away team covers and often wins su - thus i'm going with the chargers.

More details of the numbers are explained below the dotted line.  Good luck all.       

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's look at some numbers:

       Cincy   18   8   5     5    11    27

2.5  Balt      30   18   11  12  21   30

Balt opens up as a 2.5 fav, currently around 2. All we can go by for the first week of... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 01:40 AM

Balt. other picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

       Cincy   18   8   5     5    11    27

2.5  Balt      30   18   11  12  21   30

Balt opens up as a 2.5 fav, currently around 2. All we can go by for the first week of the season is last years numbers.   They work, so I use them for the first week.    Cincy is better in off. rushing rank, off. passing rank, def. rush, def pass rank, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength basically they dominant in every category.   One would think Cincy should crush.   If it were only that easy.    Basically what history has shown - when you have what I call a 6/0 situation, where the oddsmakers have made the 0 team the favorite (does not happen very often) you take the 0 team.  The 0 team comes out on top at a very high percentage...thus you take Balt.-  my biggest bet of the day.

Other picks on the side of history:

Atl, Houst, Buff, TB, Sf  

Good luck all. Have a great season.  

 



Posted Monday, September 01, 2014 11:08 AM

Picks and why

We had a positive day yesterday even with the Kc - let's revert back to 9 complete innings result.

Let's look at some numbers:

       Minn    Hughes   23

145  Balt     Gausman   80

Balt opens up as a 145 fav. currently down to 127.   Hughes has a rating of 23 while gausman 83.  Clearly Hughes is better.  However, when you have an opening line of 145 for the home team and pitchers with these numbers......history has shown the home team usually comes out on top.  I'm taking Bal - 1.

Other picks that side on history:   Clev., Milw, LAD, Bos., Oak, Tex,

Over SF, Under Oak

Good luck all.

 

 



Posted Sunday, August 31, 2014 11:38 AM

Mlb Picks and why

We have had a good week, however, yesterday went 0-2 with a push.  Let's look at some numbers:

        Philly    Burnett    53

135  NYM    Gee          69

NYM open up as a 135 fav...currently around 115.    Burnett has a numerical rating of 53 while Gee 69.   In this case the away team team usually picks up the victory - thus I take the phils.

Other picks on the side of history:

Cincy, Stl - 1,  LAD, Oak

Good luck all.



Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 12:17 PM

Early MLB Picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

115   Det    Scherzer     13

         CWS Sale            P2

Two great pitchers.   Scherzer opens up as a 115 fav....it's gone down a little bit.   Scherzer has a rating of 13 while Sale has a rating of -what I call P2....in my rating scheme - a P pitcher is better than a pitcher with a numerical rating like 13.   However, history has shown when the away pitcher has this rating....and the home team is a P2 pitcher....and the away team has a line of 115....take the away team - Tigers.

Early picks:   NYY,  Pitt (-1)   

Good luck all.



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