TheBuddah's Blog

Posted Sunday, April 03, 2016 10:30 AM

Opening day picks and why

Baseball is back – you gotta love it.    The first week can always be a little tricky because your relying on either spring data or last year’s numbers.   What I have found over the years you use a combination of the opening lines (donbest.com), spring data and sagarin numbers from last year until the starters have pitched a game in the regular season.   That being said there are patterns in the data that can make the first week profitable.  Let’s look at some numbers:

 

          Stlouis   Wain.    37    (spring numbers 15 i.p – 19 hits – 11 s/o and 4.80 era)

 

105   Pitt        Lirian.    12    (Spring numbers 13.1 i.p. – 19 hits  16 s/o and 6.08 era)

 

Pitt opens up as a 105 fav. (not a typical line like 110, 115, 120 etc. so I track these lines separately) – currently around 122.    In this case, we have had a couple of situations where the line was 105 and pitchers had numerical numbers close to the 37/12 above (the numerical rating are numbers from sagarin and a formula I use to give each pitcher a rating in order to make an apple to apple comparison).    Based on the numerical ratings history has shown the home team usually gets the vict... [More]

Posted Saturday, April 02, 2016 04:43 PM

Villanova and why

Let’s look at some numbers:

-1   Vill    14.5    11.1    3    20     42.1%

       Okla  14.3    13.5    6     4     41.8%

 

Vill. Opens up as a 1 pt fav.   Currently around 2.5.   Vill. Averages 14.5 assists per game and 11.1 turnovers.    Their sagarin rank is 3 and schedule strength is 20.  They allow their opponents to shoot 42.1%.    You can see oklahoma’s numbers as well.     Historically when you have these types of numbers with an opening line of 1 for the top team  - you take Villanova in the first half and for the game as they should win.  

 

The second game – I don’t have a lot of data to hang my hat so no play.     Good luck all.           



Posted Sunday, February 07, 2016 03:38 PM

Denver and why

Let’s look at some numbers:

4 Carolina    2     24      4    16     1      27

    Denver    17    17      1      3     4       13

Carolina opens up as a 4 pt fav. Currently around 5.5.   Carolina is better in Off. Rushing rank at 2, and sagarin rank at 1.   Denver is better in Off. Passing rank at 17, Def. Rushing rank at 1, def. passing rank at 3 and schedule strength at 13. 

I’ve crunched numbers from the past 6 super bowls (2010 No/Indy; 2011 Pitt/GBY; 2012 NYG/NE; 2013 Balt/Sf ; 2014 Sea/Denver; 2015 NE/Sea )

Many times people will say Def. wins championships – In the last 6 super bowls looking at the totals of def. ranks (rushing/passing combined) – It only happened 1 time – 2014 (seattle 2/Vice Denver 8)

If you chop it up separately and was to only look at rushing def. – the team with the best rushing def. only won twice 2014 and 2011)

If you only look at passing def.  – 2012 and 2014 were teams that won with the best passing def. 

If you were to look at of... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 16, 2016 02:34 PM

NFL Picks and why

Let’s look at some numbers:

         KC   6   30    9    4    2    15

 4.5   NE  30    4    8   17   9   24  

 NE opens up as a 4.5 fav. Currently around 5 pts.   KC is better in rushing off.  At 6   def. passing at 4, sagarin rank and sched. Strength.   NE is better in Off. Passing rank and def. rushing rank.   When you go back into playoff history – we had one game where this similar scenario occurred – NYJ/cincy -3.5 - The line was diffefent but similar scenario and the Jets won su.    Schedule strength is another thing that makes me think KC should be able to keep it close and may when su.  

My Plays:   1.   KC +5    2.   GB +7.5  

Good luck all

... [More]

Posted Friday, December 18, 2015 01:37 AM

Bowl Picks and why

Another bowl season is upon us.  We had a positive regular season and have done well in past bowl seasons including a 23-12 record last year.  When handicapping bowl games – i have found you need to make adjustments based on the fact the teams are usually playing on a neutral site.  I use the current numbers and spread but I compare them to the previous bowl games played – NOT the regular season. The picks I select are all based on what trends bowl games have shown for a particular scenario the past 6 yrs.    Let’s look at some numbers:

 66  Ark st   36 (t.O)  67 (t.D) 70 (sag.rank)  131 (s.sched)

      Ltech    27           54           78                     123 

In this game, the over/under opened up at 66 – currently around 68.   Ltec is better in every category except Sagarin rank.    Historically, when you have this situation teams score lot’s of points. I’m taking the over – not messing with a side.

My plays : 1.  Over 68 Arkst/Ltec    2.   Nmex +8   3.  BYU + 2.5... [More]

Posted Saturday, November 28, 2015 10:46 AM

CFB Picks and why - week 13

I went 4-10 last week record stands at 123-99 – I usually don’t post if I’m running bad but I want to finish what I started. Let’s look at some numbers:

 

7  NC  19   56   14   68

   Ncst 64   13  43   73

 

NC opens up as a 7 pt fav. Currently around 4.   NC is better in Total Off., Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. Strength.   Nc state is better in Total def.    In this case – history shows the home team covers the spread and usually wins the game su.     

 

My plays:   1.   Nc state +4   2. Nc State m/line +170    3.   Fla st – 2.5    4.   Nwester – 3    5.   Texst/Idaho over 67.5   6. Tex am  +5.5   7.   Okla. – 7.5   8.   Stanford – 3   9.  Under   Pennst/mich st 44   10.  Under Vandy/tenn 41.5     11.    Ky +5    12.   App st – 23     

 

Good Luck all. 

... [More]

Posted Thursday, November 26, 2015 09:39 AM

NFL Picks and why

I had a good week in the pros last week – thought I’d share.   Let’s look at some numbers:

      Philly            11   14   28   16 10 20  

PK Detroit         32   8     24   19   27 1

 The game opens up as a PK – currently the line favors det at -2.5.   Philly is better in off. Rushing, def. passing and sagarin rank.   Detr. Is better in off. Passing, def. rushing, and sagarin schedule strength.

When you mix it all up and you look at games played previously with this type of scenario along with an opening line of PK or low spreads 1, 1.5 – the away team usually gets the victory su.    I’m taking Philly +2.5.  

 

My Plays:   1. Philly +2.5   2. Dallas -1     3.   Chicago  +8

 

Good luck all and may all of you have a great Thanksgiving.

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Posted Thursday, November 19, 2015 06:07 PM

CFB Picks and Why week 12

We went 9 – 11 last week – record stands at 119-90.   Not sure if anyone watched the Charlotte game but I’ve never seen more incompetent refs and idiot players involved in a football game.     We got the cover, however, we should have gotten the mline win.   I’ve moved on.   Let’s look at some numbers:

 

        Monroe    121  100   166   81  

4.5  Tex. State  49    127   161   111

 

Tex state opens up as a 4.5 fav.  Currently around 6.5.   Tex state is better in Total off. And sagarin rank, while Monroe is better in total def. and sagarin sched. Strength.    I recognize the coach got fired for Monroe and a few injures on the off. Line.   IMO believe the odds makers have made whatever adjustments necessary for these changes.   If there was a starting QB injured I’d be concerned but I don’t think that is the case – please correct me if I’m wrong.   When you have this type of scenario along with an opening line of 4.5 my numbers indicate – the away team usually covers and often wins su.

My plays:   1.  Monroe  2.  Monroe +210   [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 11, 2015 03:27 PM

CFB Picks and Why - week 11

We went 10-13 last week – overall record stands at 110-79.   I hate losing – we will get it back. Let’s look at some numbers:

Nill. Opens up as a 6pt fav. Currently around 7.   The over under opened up at 55.5 currently around the same.  Nill is better in Total Off., Total Def., Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. Strength.  As much as Nill looks like the pick, historically the home team keeps it close, occasionally wins outright and usually goes under the total.     I’m taking Buff.  +7 and under the total.

 

My Plays:   1.   Buff. +7   2. Nill/Buff Under 55.5

 

Good luck all       



Posted Monday, November 09, 2015 06:47 PM

San Diego and why

Let's look at some numbers:

Sd opens up as a 4.5 point fav. Currently around 4 – 4.5.  Chicago is better in rushing off. , passing def.  and schedule strength.    While Sd is better in Passing off.   Rushing def. and sagarin rank.   When you have this type of matchup historically the home team gets the victory and covers the spread.    I’m taking Sd – 4.     

Good luck all.    



Posted Tuesday, November 03, 2015 01:13 PM

CFB Picks and why - week 10

We went 18-7 last week.  Overall record stands at 100-66.   Let’s try and have another winning week. Let’s look at some numbers:

     Nill   36   53   72    126

8   Tol.   24   51   34   116

 

Tol. Opens up as a 8pt fav.   Currently around 7.   Toledo is better in all 4 categories – Total off., Total Def., Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. Strength.  I would agree that Toledo doesn’t dominate in any category and would make one think that nill – should keep it close. However, historically when you have this situation, the home team comes out on top and covers.  I like Toledo and wouldn’t be surprised if they beat them good.

 

Good luck all

... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 01, 2015 12:26 PM

NFL Picksand why - week 9

We have done pretty good the last couple of weeks.   Last week we went 7-3 for the last two weeks record stands at 11-5.  Let's look at some numbers:

       TB  4  23   15  5  32  32

7.5  Atl  5   9   2    25  11  26

Atl opens up as a 7.5fav.  currently around 8.5.   Atl is better in passing off rank at 9, def. rushing rank at 2 sagarin rank at 11 and sagarin sched. strength at 26.   TB is better in off. rushing rank and Def. passing rank.   Clearly on paper Atl. looks like the pick, however, history has shown the away team usally covers and occassionaly wins the game su.  

My plays:  1. TB  +8.5   2.  Sf +8   3.   under az/clev 45.5  4. Clev +6.5  5.   Tenn +3.5   6.  Oak +3   7. Tsr Sf +14/Sfunder 47

Good luck all  

 



Posted Thursday, October 29, 2015 04:23 PM

CFB Picks and why - week 9

Overall Record stands at 82 – 59.   We went 8 -12 last week with 1 push.   Let’s look at some numbers:

7.5   Buff          85    82    101   110    

        Mia. Oh   119   108   173   73

Buff opens up as a 7.5 pt fav. Currently around 7.5.   They are better in Total Off, Total def., sagarin rank.   Mia. Oh is better in Sagarin sched. Strength.    When you have an opening line of 7.5 and numbers like this – historically the home team often gets the cover and can win the game outright.

 

My plays:   1.   Miami Oh +7.5     2.    TCU – 13    3. Oregon +2.5      4. NC – 2

 

Good luck all

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, October 28, 2015 07:25 PM

Royals and why

Let's look at some numbers:

109   NYM   Degrom 3

         KC     Cueto    18   

NYM open up as a 109 fav.  currently around 118 - 120.    Before we look at the numbers let's look at the line - 109 is not a typical opening line - often you have lines like 120, 115, 110, - they open with a number that ends in 0 or 5.    I keep track of these off lines.  We haven't had any lines open with a 109 for the away team during the playoffs for the last 5 yrs based on my data collection.   That being the case it does mean be careful in what team you choose IMO.   However, during the years we have had a few situations where the away team has opened as a 109 fav. and when that has happened - the home team has won the game. 

Based on paper - clearly degrom is the better pitcher as he has a numerical rating of 3 based on sagarin numbers and a formula I use to rate pitchers.   While Cueto has a rating of 18 (lower the better).   Once again very often I find with off numbers for an opening line - you throw out the pitcher ratings and go with history from the lines.  I'm taking KC but not going crazy.

Good luck all 



Posted Sunday, October 25, 2015 11:19 AM

NFL Picks and why - week 7

We went 4-2 - last week - prior to that it has been on the losing end overall.  I'm feeling pretty good about this week as one poster said - rub that belly longer - I did...lol.  Let's look at some numbers:

       NYJ  1  21   2   2   9   25

9.5  NE    21  2   22  16  1  13

Ne opens up as a 9.5 fav. currently around 7.    NYJ  rank number 1 in rushing off., rushing def. and passing def.  While NE is better in Off. passing, Sagarin rank at 1 and schedule strength at 13.  When you look at history for similar opening lines and scenarios like the above - the home team usually scores a lot of points and gets the cover as well as over on the team total.   IMO the line has dropped because the jets have an incredible def. in both rushing and passing.....but I think NE gets it.

My Plays:  1.  NE - 7   2. NE over TT 27.5   3.  Houston +4   4.  Minn -1   5. Over wash/tb 41   6.   Norleans +4.5    7.  Oak +3.5   8.  Under kc/pitt  42.5   9.   Kc - 3   10.   Pilly +3

Good luck all



Posted Tuesday, October 20, 2015 06:26 PM

CFB Picks and why -week 8

We went 12- 7 Last week. Record stands at 74 – 47.  Let’s try to keep it rolling, let’s look at some numbers:

 

         UL Laf.    45  80   118   123  

7.5   Ark st     81   57     89      88

 

Ark st line opened at 7.5 – then jumped up to 8.5 – then dropped back down to 7.  Lafyett. Is only better in one category – Total off. While Ark st is better in total def., sagarin rank and sagarin  sched.strength.  Between the numbers and the opening line of 7.5 – historically the away team gets the cover and very often wins the game on the money/line.

My plays:   1. Laf. +7    2.   Laf. m/line +220

 

Good luck all.

Fire Cracker - Back at ya

... [More]

Posted Monday, October 19, 2015 07:03 PM

Giants and why

We went 4-1 yesterday - let's try to get this game tonite-let's look at some numbers:

49  NYG  26   7   2   32    9       8

 4.5 Phi   22  13  12  26   14     7 

Phi opens up as a 4.5 fav.  currently around 3.5.  Phi is better in rushing off, passing def. and sagarin schedule strength.  Ny is better in passing off, rushing def., and sagarin rank.   Historically when you have a situation like this and an opening line of 4.5 the away team, usually gets the cover and very often wins the game su. Typically these games are low scoring as well. 

I'm taking NY +3.5 . , under 50.5, a small play on the m/line and KC in baseball.

Good luck all

 



Posted Friday, October 16, 2015 08:00 PM

CFB Picks and Why - Week7

Record stands at 62-40.   We had our first losing week - last week at 7 - 10 . Let's loo at some numbers:

9.5  Boise st  19   5    11    78

       Utah st    96  17    53   58 

Boise opens up a 9.5 currently around 7.5 .   Boise is better in Total Off.   total Def.   Sagarin rank while Uta state is only better in Schedule strength.   In this situation- history has shown the home team usually gets the cover and periodically wins it su.

my plays:  1.   Utah st +7.5  2.Fresno st +  6.5   

good luck all

 

 



Posted Friday, October 16, 2015 07:11 PM

Royals and why

For the record - my posted record early on has not been good but I've been doing good lately - thought i'd post.  Let's look at some numbers:

120  Tor  Estrada  12

        KC   Volquez  26

Tor opens up as a 120 fav. currently around 110.   Estrada has a numerical rating of 12 and volquez 26 (lower the better).  Toronto looks like the play based on paper, however, history has shown - when you have two teams with similar numerical ratings along with an opening line of 120 - the home team usually gets the victory and often they win by multiple runs.   I'm taking KC on the m/line.  good luck all



Posted Sunday, October 11, 2015 12:27 PM

NFL Picks and Why - week 5

Record stands at 13-10 – we went 5-5 lweek.  Let’s look at some numbers:

        Clev    25   9   31   22   27   26

6.5   Balt    19  11  15   16  13    3

 Balt. Opens up as a 6.5 fav. Currently around 6.   Clev is only better in Off. Passing. While Balt. Is better in Off. Rushing, Def. rushing, Def. passing, Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. Strength. In this situation along with an opening line of 6.5 - history has shown – the home team overwhelmingly gets the cover.   I’m taking Baltimore.

My plays:   1.  Baltimore – 6.5   2. Atl. – 7   3. Over Atl tt 27.5    4.   KC – 9.5  5.  Kc TT over 27   6.   Philly -6.5  7.   Stl + 8    8.   Under Stl/GB  45   9.   Cincy – 3   10.    Detr +4  11.  Detr m/line +175   12.  2 team  Teaser Ne – 2.5/Neover 44.5  13.   Over Denver/Oak 44.5

 

Good luck all

... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 08, 2015 11:08 AM

CFB Picks and Why week 6

Overall record stands at 55-30. Last week we went 12-9.  We have had 5 positive weeks. We started off good - had a terrible middle but ended well. 

Let's look at some numbers:

         Smiss   13 105 91 132

6.5 Marshal  108 44  79 158

Mar. opens up as a 6.5 fav currently around 5.  Smiss is better in Total off. and sched. strength hile Mars. is better in total def. and sagarin rank.  When you have this scenario - the away team usually gets the cover and very often wins su.

My plays:  1. Smiss +5   2. 6pt Teaser Houst-20 /Smiss +11

Good luck all

 

 



Posted Thursday, October 08, 2015 10:53 AM

MLB Picks and why

Record stands at 0-1 with the Pitt losing.   Let's see if we can get them to day.   Let's look at some numbers:

       Hous  McChugh   27

133  KC   Ventura      26

The line opens up as a 133 fav for KC - currently around 137 -140. McChugh has a rating of 27 while ventura has a rating of 26 (lower the better).   The ratings are based on sagarin numbers and a formua I use to give each pitcher a numerical rating.  When you look at the numbers the data (limited because it's playoff data - not regular season) - history shows the away team often gets the victory.   I'm taking Houston.   Another thing I've noticed - when oddsmakers put lines like 133 as an opening line vice the usual 120, 125, 130 etc etc. - I track those numbers separately and found one game where the home team had an opening line of 133 and the away team won.  Not sure what that means exactly but i'm taking Houston.  

In the first game - I'm taking the Blue Jays on the run line -1.5 - several scenarios in the past support taking them on the run line vice laying 230 on the m/line.

My Plays:1. Pitt - loser  2.  Toronto - 1.5   3.  Houston m/line.

I appreciate the comments in the pitt and why post.  I'm travelling so my comments back to ya may b... [More]

Posted Wednesday, October 07, 2015 12:06 PM

Pitt and why

Let's look at some numbers:

115  Cubs Arrieta     1

        Pitt    Cole       11

Cubs open up as a 115 fav...currently around 130.   Arrieta has a numerical ranking of 1 and Cole 11 (lower the better).   The numerical ratings are based on a formula I use to evaluate pitchers using sagarin rankings.  Clearly Arrieta is one of if not the best pitcher in the NL and AL.   The reason I like Pitt - historically when you look at this game with pitchers who have similar ratings in games played in the playoffs (this tries to ensure an apples to apples comparison) with a line of 115 - 120 - the home team usually gets the victory.  I recognize Arrieta is simply amazing but what I find - if there was little room for error - the oddsmakers would have made him a bigger favorite IMO.   I'm taking Pitt.

Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, October 04, 2015 11:43 AM

NFL Picks and why - week 4

Record stands at 8-5: Let's look at some numbers:

         KC      16   25   14  28   12     2

4.5   Cincy    8    6       5    20   6   18

Cincy opens up as a 4.5 fav. currently around 3.5.   In this situation Cincy is better in off. rushing, off. passing, def. rushing, sagarin ranking while Kc is only better in Sagarin schedule strength.   Cincy dominates, however, history has shown - the away team covers and often wins straight up.  My play is Kc.

My plays:   1. Kc +3.5   2. Kc M/line +160   3.   Atl +5   4.  Nyg +6

5. Oak -3   6.   Philly - 3   7.  Minn +7   8.  Minn m/line +245  9. Over Stl/az 43.5  

Good luck all

 

 

 



Posted Thursday, October 01, 2015 12:22 AM

CFB Picks and why - week 5

Record stands at 43 -21.   We went 10-3 last week – we have had 4 positive weeks – let’s try to keep it rolling.   Let’s look at some numbers:

 

12.5 Memphis  8  104   45   117  

         Sfla           92   45   109   66

 

Memphis opens up as a 12.5 fav currently around 8.5.     Memphis ranks 8th in Total off., 104 in total def., 45 in sagarin rank and 117 in schedule strength.     Sfla is better in total Def. rank and schedule strength rank.   Memphis is better in Total off and sagarin rank.     When you look at games previously played and find games with lines exactly or around 12.5, along with similar ranks – history indicates the home team usally gets the cover and often wins su.   Thus I’m taking Sfla. on the spread and a smaller play on the m/line.  For the Thursday game I’m taking Cincy on the spread but be a little more careful due to the qb change but I believe they cover it.

My plays:    1.   Sfla +8.5    2. Sfla M/line + 282   3.  Under 44 Conn/BYU  4. Ga – ... [More]

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