TheBuddah's Blog

Posted 20 hours, 43 minutes ago

Picks and why

We had a positive day yesterday even with the Kc - let's revert back to 9 complete innings result.

Let's look at some numbers:

       Minn    Hughes   23

145  Balt     Gausman   80

Balt opens up as a 145 fav. currently down to 127.   Hughes has a rating of 23 while gausman 83.  Clearly Hughes is better.  However, when you have an opening line of 145 for the home team and pitchers with these numbers......history has shown the home team usually comes out on top.  I'm taking Bal - 1.

Other picks that side on history:   Clev., Milw, LAD, Bos., Oak, Tex,

Over SF, Under Oak

Good luck all.

 

 



Posted Sunday, August 31, 2014 11:38 AM

Mlb Picks and why

We have had a good week, however, yesterday went 0-2 with a push.  Let's look at some numbers:

        Philly    Burnett    53

135  NYM    Gee          69

NYM open up as a 135 fav...currently around 115.    Burnett has a numerical rating of 53 while Gee 69.   In this case the away team team usually picks up the victory - thus I take the phils.

Other picks on the side of history:

Cincy, Stl - 1,  LAD, Oak

Good luck all.



Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 12:17 PM

Early MLB Picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

115   Det    Scherzer     13

         CWS Sale            P2

Two great pitchers.   Scherzer opens up as a 115 fav....it's gone down a little bit.   Scherzer has a rating of 13 while Sale has a rating of -what I call P2....in my rating scheme - a P pitcher is better than a pitcher with a numerical rating like 13.   However, history has shown when the away pitcher has this rating....and the home team is a P2 pitcher....and the away team has a line of 115....take the away team - Tigers.

Early picks:   NYY,  Pitt (-1)   

Good luck all.



Posted Friday, August 29, 2014 04:39 PM

MLB Picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         Cincy      Leake    38

150    Pitt        Volquez  43

Pit opens up as a 150 fav (donbest.com)-currently around 140.  Leake has a numerical rating of 38 and volq. 43 (lower the better)....the rating is a formula I use based on numbers from sagarin.com.  The reason you take Cincy in this case.....is not because Leake has a lower number.....it's because history has shown when you have pitchers with these numerical ratings....and an opening line of 150....the away team....usually gets the victory.  I'm on Cincy.

Other picks on the side of history include:

Cubs, Dodgers, Balt - 1.5, Hous - 1, NYY,   LAA, Wash.

Good luck all.



Posted Thursday, August 28, 2014 06:37 PM

CWS and Why

Let's look at some numbers:

150 Clev   Carrasco    27

       Cws   Danks        55

Clev. opens as 150 fav.....currently around 125.   Carrasco has a rating of 27 while danks 55 (lower the better).    When you look at history and see other games with a line of 150 and pitchers with these numerical ratings......the home team most often gets the victory....thus i'm going with the CWS.

Only game I like tonite.....Longstah - good luck to you.

 

 



Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 10:31 PM

Thursdays picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

10.5  Miss      22    40    27    9

 56.5 Boise    21     76    47   75  

Miss opens up as a 10.5 fav, currently around 11.   The over under went from an opening number of 56.5 to currently around 53.5.  Looking at numbers from last year - Boise is only better in Total off. rank 21 vice 22.    Miss. is better in Total Def. with 40 and better sagarin rank of 27 and schedule strength of 9 vice 75.    History has shown - when you have this scenario....the best play is to take the UNDER.   I know it dropped but I think it will work out fine.

In addition:   SC, Tulane, Wash. st should cover and I like the over in the wash. st game.   

I recognize it's opening week but I find last years stats can be applied to the first weeks games.  Good luck all and have a great season.



Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 03:05 PM

Tex, other picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         Tex     Lewis        120

170   Sea     Ramirez  106

Sea opens up as a 170 fav. currently around 165.   Tex pitcher has a numerical rating of 120 while Ramirez is 106 (lower the better).   In this case with an opening number of 170 and pitchers having these numerical ratings.....the away team typically picks up the win based on similar historical opening line and numerical ratings.

Other games that I believe may come thru for us today:

NYM, TB, Miami CWS.    I also, like a parlay between Cincy and Dodgers.  Good luck all.



Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 11:54 AM

Pit and why

Let's look at some numbers:

130  Stl.   Wainright   5

        pit    Locke       80

Stl opens up as a 130 fav.   currently around 116.    Wain. has a numerical rating of 5 while locke is at 80 (lower the better).  Clearly on paper wainright looks like the clear choice.   However, when you look at history with teams having similar numerical ratings (the numerical ratings come from sagarin.com and a formula I use to calculate each sp - numbers)   and an opening line of 130....you find the home team usually gets the victory.  I'm on pit.   Good luck all.



Posted Monday, August 25, 2014 06:33 PM

Philly and why

Let's look at some numbers:

150    Wash  Roark     9

           Phil. Burnett     54

Wash opens up as 150 favorite currently around 134.   Roark has a pitcher rating of 9 while Burnett has a 54 rating (lower the better).  The numerical rating is a formula I use based on numbers from sagarin.com   Based on the numbers clearly Roark would appear to be the pitcher to go with.  However, based on history when you have two pitchers with similar ratings and a line of 150.....history indicates the home team gets the win...thus you take the phils. Obviously nothing is guaranteed but I think it's a situation wash falls tonite.

Other games:   Pitt -1  ,   Milw, TB, NYY, LAA - 1.5  , Tex  

Good luck all. 



Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 11:10 PM

Pre-season Week 2 Picks and why

Like many of you I was always skeptical of preseason and  avoided it for a long time.  I figured since the odds makers can put a line on the game - I will use last years data to apply to this years games (since there is really nothing else to go on) between now and the first week of the season.    I began doing preseason in 2011 and have accumulated enough data to develop trends that work.   Here's a write up on the AZ/Minn game:

       Az    23   13   1   14    7      3

2.5 Minn  8    23   16   31  27  22

Minn opens up as a 2.5 fav. (donbest.com).   Looking at ranks for last year  AZ ranked 23 for rushing off., 13 for passing off., 1 for def. rushing and 14 for def. passing.   Sagarin had AZ ranked 7 with a schedule strength of 3.   While Minn had the corresponding numbers for these categories.    Lower the better in all categories.  A you can see based on last years numbers AZ is better in all categories except off. rushing.  This is what I call a 5/1 situation.   When you have a 1 team that is either pk or favored it means you take them- thus I take Minn. 

Last week we had two situations where this came into play - Jax and Baltimore.

Other games... [More]

Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 05:44 PM

Yanks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         NY Phelps    82

150  Tex    Darvish   16

Tex opens up as a 150 fav (donbest.com) .   Phelps has a 82 numerical rating compared to Darvish with a 16 (lower the better).

On Paper Darvish is better by a wide margin.  Historically when you have two pitchers with these numerical ratings (#s are from sagarin.com - using my formula for the rating) and an opening line of 150 - history has sided on the away team.  Other picks tonite - Bos. - 1 ; Phillies; Sf - 1.

Good luck all.



Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 12:14 PM

MLB Picks and Why

 Lot's of opportunities today, let's look at some numbers:

         Balt.  Chen          57

150  Oak    Hammel      11

Oak opens up as a 150 fav. (donbest.com) .   Chen has a numerical rating of 57 and Hammel   11 (lower the better).   The numerical ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give every pitcher a numerical rating - thus an apples to apples comparison.   At this stage you would think Oak is the team to take, however, it doesn't work that way....you need to take into account both the opening line and what history has shown when you have teams with these or very similar numerical ratings.   In this case the data overwhelmingly supports taking Baltimore.   Thus I take Baltimore.

In addition, I think - Atl., NY yanks., CWS, LAA, Tor (-1)

Good luck all.

 

 



Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 06:31 PM

American L. and why

I typically don't put much on these games due to too many variables (pitchers lasting an inning or two, pitchers and hitters not so in tune with each other based limited matchups, etc.)   however, there is something interesting about this game.  

The opening line (donbest.com)  was initially - 110 for the national league, however, it changed last night to +100 for the AL.    Based on my years of doing this I keep track of these non typical lines.  I find when you have a line of +100 - you lessen your reliability on Pitcher data and go with the trends of a +100 line.    What my data indicates - the home team with a line of +100 has strong record of  25(w) - 7(L) - regular season games over the last few years.  Considering we don't have a lot to go on - I believe this may translate to the AL winning.   I'm on the A.L.    good luck all.      



Posted Sunday, July 06, 2014 11:12 AM

Philly and why

Let's look at some numbers:

        Phil  Burn.  45

160  Pitt.  Locke  37

Pitt opens up as a 160 favorite (donbest.com).  Burnett has a numerical rating of 45 (the rating is based on numbers from sagarin and a formula I use to calculate their rating - an apples to apples approach).  While locke has a rating of 37 (lower the better).   One would think Pitt would be the team to go with considering Locke has a better rating - unfortunately it doesn't work like that.   You gotta go a step further - look at the opening line the oddsmakers put on the game 160 - now do a comparison of what historically has occurred when you have two pitchers with numerical ratings of 45 - 37 and an opening line of 160.   I go to my spreadsheet and I find a high percentage of games where the away team comes out on top in these situations at a pretty consistent rate - thus I go with Philly.

Other picks based on this method:  Wash, Sf,Det,CWS,Oak.  Good luck all.

 



Posted Saturday, July 05, 2014 10:12 PM

gotta love morse

yeah baby

Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 06:10 PM

NY and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         Bos   Lackey    22

110   NY    Whitley   77

NY opens up as a 110 fav. (donbest.com), currently around 103.   Lackey has a numerical rating of 22 and whitely 77 (a formula I use based on numbers from sagarin.com).   Historically when teams have these numbers and an opening line of 110 - the home team often gets the victory.  Yesterdays game between the giants and reds was almost identical to this game.....unfortunately the giants blew it, hopefully the yanks will close it out.  I'm taking the yanks in the first 5 and the under along with the yanks for the game.  Good luck all.

.....................................................................................................

let's look at this game:

       Cinncy  Simone   23

110 Sf.   Cain              77

Sf opens up as a 110 fav. (donbest.com)    simone has a rating of 23 (lower the better) and cain has a rating of 77.  The ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to come up with a rating.  When you compare the numerical ratings along with the opening line of 110 for the home team......history shows the hom... [More]

Posted Sunday, June 01, 2014 12:49 PM

Picks and why

I've been doing well lately - thought i'd share:

Cubs, Minn, TB, Balt., Col.

Let's look at the TB game:

         TB   Bedard       70

150   Bos  Lester        23

I use #s from Sagarin.com to come up with a numerical rating for each pitcher - lower the better.    Bos opens up as a 150 favorite (donbest.com).    Bedard has a rating of 70 while lester has a rating of 23.  Clearly on paper  Lester is better.   Historically, when you have a line of 150 and ratings of 70 for the away team and 23 for the home team.....more often than not the away team gets the victory.   Thus I go with the away team.   I recognize Boston has been rolling.....but sometimes you got to buck the trend and this seems like a spot where that happens.  The same rationale supports the picks above.....based on the opening line and the numerical numbers and trends.....the teams above are plays as well.   Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, May 11, 2014 12:16 PM

MLB Picks and why

Yesterday we had Toronto but it didn't work out for us.  Let's look at some numbers:

        NYY   Phelps    65

135  Milw   Garza     47

Milw opens up as a 135 favorite currently around 128. 

Phelps has a rating of 65 and Garza 47.   These ratings are based on a formula I use from sagarin.com .  The lower the number the better; however, for betting purposes it's not as cut and dry as taking the team with the better ranking.    When you have these numerical ratings.....65 and 47 and a line of 135.....the away team more often gets the victory (based on past history with these lines and numbers) - thus you go with the Yankees.

Other games showing strong percentages:  Toronto (yes again);Col.; Miam; TB; Oak; Tex; Sea.

Good luck all.

 

 

 



Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 10:56 AM

Toronto and why

Let's look at some numbers:

         LAA       Skaggs  37  (lower the better)

110  Toronto    Happ     47

Toronto opens up as a 110 favorite.  Currently around 115.  The formula I use is based on sagarin rankings.    if you go to sagarin.com - it will take you to usa today.....and you will see his data for pitchers and hitters listed.    (rank +  (Mob - Ricky) )

I keep track of the numerical rating for each pitcher as well as the line and the result for each game - for the past 5 seasons.   Your just looking at percentages.   In this case the Home team wins more often than the away team (based on history with similar line and numerical ratings) - at a significant margin.  Thus you go with Toronto.  

Good luck all.

 



Posted Wednesday, May 07, 2014 08:55 PM

yanks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

        NY        Nuno    120

135  LAA  Santiago   47

LAA angels open up as a 135 favorite. Currently around 137.   Nuno has a numerical rank of 120 while Santiago has a rank of 47 - lower the number the better.   On paper Santiago is clearly the better pitcher, however, when you have an opening line of 135 and you have pitchers with these ranks - historically the away team gets the victory.   Thus I'm taking the Yanks.   Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, April 27, 2014 12:43 PM

NBA Picks and why

Solid picks are GS and Portland - here's why:

1.5 LAC   1  14    44%

      GS    7   8     43%

We have LAC opens up as a 1.5 pt Fav (donbest.com) - currently around 2.   Sagarin (sagarin.com)  has LAC ranked 1 and a sched. strength of 14 and they allow 44% shooting percentage def. while playng on the road (statfox.com).    On the other hand, GS has a rank of 7 sched. strength of 8 and a shooting percentage def of 43.   When you compare this scenario to previous games played with these (similar) numbers - the home team typically gets the win/cover -   thus i'm on GS.   

Different line and numbers for the Houst/port game but the home team should cover the 2.5 line.based on previous results with similar numbers. - thus i'm on Portland.

Good luck all.



Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 04:18 PM

KC - rally thread

Let's do it



Posted Saturday, April 05, 2014 09:33 AM

Siena and Why

Let's look at some numbers:

-1  Fres    11.7    9.5      98    100    44.6%

     Siena    14.4    12.9   151   142   39.8%

What we have here is - Fres. opens up as a 1 pt favorite (donbest.com).   Both Fres and Siena have +/-   assist to turnover ratios.  Sagarin has fres. ranked at 98 and their schedule strength at 100.   Siena on the other hand has a rank of 151 and a schedule strength of 142.   Fres allows their opp. to shoot a 44.6% while on the road and siena allows 39.8% while at home. 

Based on previous history when you have this scenario.....the home team gets the straight up victory.   Thus i'm taking Siena.   Good luck all.

 



Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 12:06 AM

MLB Picks and Why - season long thread

I picked the Dodgers in their second game (Aus.) - thus i'm 0-1.

Until the pitchers have a game under their belt all we can go on is preseason data along with last years numbers and patterns.  Here are the picks for tomorrow - i'll provide my rationale for one selection below:

1. NYM   2.   Milw.   3.   Cincy 4. AZ  5.   Bos.   6.   Tex  7.   TB  8. Clev.

Let's look at the Stl/Cincy game:

115    Stl      Wainw.             1.59       10 (lower the better)

          Cinn   Cueto                4.61      28

Stl. opened up as a 115 favorite currently around 113.   Wainw. had a 1.59 era for the spring and ended last year with a numerical rating of 10 based on a formula I use from sagarin ratings.   While Cueto had a spring era of 4.61 and a numerical rating of 28.  On paper  Stl would be the team to go with, however when you look at the opening line of 115 for the away team and when pitchers have a numerical ratings of   10-28    history has shown the home team often gets the victory... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 27, 2014 08:48 PM

MLB system - Step by step - one more time

I tried posting the step by step mlb system I developed and use but had many posting issues.   I'll try it again in one thread probably 4 posts and see if it comes out okay:

     One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed.   That being said……the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.  

Recognizing, they are human – imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what you are doing – which the rest of this post is trying to help you do.

 



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