TheBuddah's Blog

Ohio st and why

By TheBuddah | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 12:09 PM   2 comments

Let's look at some numbers and discuss:

        Indiana    14.3  12.4     2     60        39.7%

Pck  Ohio st     16.1  11.7    8      45       34.8%


In my opinion, the key drivers in a basketball game are assists, turnovers, power rank, sched. strength, and shooting percentage def.   Then you must consider the opening line. 

The game opens as a pck and currently around 2 for ohio st.

A good sign of well coached teams are having + assists to turnovers - which both of these teams do.  Indiana ranks 2 and has a sched. strength of 60.  Many stop there and say if Indiana has a better rank they should win the game - it doesn't work that way.  You have consider schedule strength and shooting percentage defense.  In this case ohio st is better in both schedule strength and shooting percentage defense (5 percentage points better.   You also have to consider the line of pck.   When you look at the line and historical games where this pattern was present - meaning both teams had a positive assist to turnover ratio, the away team has a better rank but the home team is better in sched strength and had a better def.  - it all points to the home team (ohio st) winning this game. They should cover the 2 pt spread. good luck all.  The numbers I use are home and away stats - not cumulative. 

2 comments
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indiobear says:
02/10/13 12:26PM
vetdrm says:
02/10/13 03:38PM
Lets get some more incense burning and get back to work.

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