TheThinker's Blog

Mathematical Line Versus A Perceived Line

By TheThinker | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, November 24, 2009 10:24 AM

47 comments

I have generated a Mathematical Formula to produce a line (spread and total) for sporting events...

I feel the books produce a Perceived Line, one in which they perceive which way the public will bet.

It is of my opinion that Mathematics can beat Perception, over a large volume of plays and a longer time period.

In this thread, i will play any difference of 3pts or more in the NBA. I will try and stick with the greek sportsbook for this experiment. I will personally be betting only to win $50 on each selection for the first 100 plays.... After that, the formula will undergo an evaluation, based on its performance.. A modest 55% ATS will be the goal, as there will be a large number of plays...

Here are MY LINES for tuesdays games..

Tor (-0.50) (205.5)

Wash (-1.5) (196.5)

Dallas (-9.5) (210.5)

Denver (-21) (195)

Utah (-6) (197)

Lakers (-8.5) (201.5)

here are plays that ive made for the 3 games that are currently posted at the greek..

Indiana +5

Ind/Tor Under 214

Denver -13

Den/NJ Under 203

Knicks +13

Lakers/Knicks Under 212

i will return later, when the other 3 games are posted and update a final card....

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Time_Is_Money says:

11/24/09 10:30AM

first off i said spreads second off i calculated Overall/away-home/last 5 for spreads and got every spread you put on there. so what is it a miracle i got the same numbers??

i'm not hating by the way

mach82 says:

11/24/09 10:54AM

That doesn't seem to be true. I can calculate NBA lines (spreads and totals) using very simple formulas. The lines I calculate are in 90% the same (+-1 pt) as the ones generated by the books. I suspect the books use the same method as me and this is not complicated at all.

Time_Is_Money says:

11/24/09 11:14AM

anyone on covers with a calculator can up up with the numbers you got

example IND@TOR

OVERALL

OFFENSE
IND 98.7
TOR 106.3

DEFENSE
IND 100.2
TOR 107.9

HOME/AWAY

OFFENSE
IND 97.2
TOR 107

DEFENSE
IND 99.0
TOR 103.5

LAST 5

OFFENSE
IND 98
TOR 103.8

DEFENSE
IND 101.2
TOR 110.4

STEP 1 ADD ALL THE IND OFFENSE 293.9 THEN DIVIDE BY 3 =97.96

STEP 2 ADD ALL THE TOR OFFENSE 317.1 THEN DIVIDE BY 3 =105.7

STEP 3 SUBTRACT GREATER NUMBER FROM SMALLER NUMBER 105.7-97.96 =TOR+7.74

STEP 4 ADD ALL THE IND DEFENSE 300.4 THEN DIVIDE BY 3 =100.13

STEP 5 ADD ALL THE TOR DEFENSE 312.8 THEN DIVIDE BY 3 =107.26

STEP 6 SUBTRACT GREATER NUMBER FROM SMALLER NUMBER 107.26-100.13 =IND -7.13

STEP 7 THEN SUBTRACT GREAT OFFENSE NUMBER TOR +7.74 BY IND -7.13 = TOR+0.61

PRETTY DAMN CLOSE TO YOUR -0.5 MY GUESS IS YOU ROUNDED DOWN

Langer88 says:

11/24/09 12:20PM

bsc111 says:

11/24/09 12:39PM

Lets see...should I follow the guy with the mathematical construct backing his picks...or the one with "Mensa" Charles Barkley in his avatar.....decisions, decisions....

johnnyflynn says:

11/24/09 12:56PM

The choice is clear. Mensa Charles Barkley will always win out over math constructs in the end.
Especially when said Charles Barkley Mensa avatar possesses a cigar.

Animax says:

11/24/09 01:43PM

nice calculation out there... we will see wat happens tomorrow

BOL

im with you on new york & denver

JerryWrasse says:

11/24/09 01:48PM

Wouldn't it be easier to just use accuscore?

tomius says:

11/24/09 07:15PM

TheThinker , I will follow your plays and I 'll wait to see how your system performs.I 'm interested on this one,as far as I use statistics and maths to make my numbers too.

In these days I 'm working a system on players props in NBA and in NFL games,but I track them on paper.

Good luck for tonight

tomius says:

11/24/09 07:22PM

Time_is_Money , on your analysis on step 7 you write

STEP 7 THEN SUBTRACT GREAT OFFENSE NUMBER TOR +7.74 BY IND -7.13 = TOR+0.61

But,If Raptors are up be +7.74 and Pacers are down by -7.13 why to subtract the numbers and not take the average by adding the absolute numbers and divide them by 2 ? I mean 7.74+7.13 equals to 14.87/2 equals to 7.435 and this is your number

What in case if Pacers were +7.13? What the number would be then ?

chump says:

11/24/09 10:07PM

I admire your analytical approach but there is soooo much more to it then crunching numbers. I go through 17 different considerations before making a wager -- such as venue, match ups, injuries, schedule and on and on ... sure, the "number" is very important but only one consideration of the process. Check out my results of picking one play a day ... my Survivor Pool numbers for the last 30 days is something like 25 wins 4 losses and 1 tie ( 86% ) . Expand upon your idea ... I put a line out for myself a day in advance and go from that point. One can make money betting sports but it's much more then a computer program ... good luck to you !!!

Frogskins85 says:

11/25/09 12:52AM

Looks like you went 6-2. In all, not bad at all my friend. Always have to expect a fluke. Fluke game was Toronto Indiana.

I just make 1 play a night and took Denver - 12.5.

I'll keep following your posts. Keep it up.

CrazyMilkMan says:

11/25/09 09:51AM

Falcon at the end of your posts reminds me of this one hella total capper from 2 or 3 years ago. I think he goes by the forum name of Falcon as well. Hope you're the same dude.

3BallBomber says:

11/25/09 09:54AM

think i remember him also.

LookKaPyPy says:

11/25/09 10:04AM

Math is only good for calculating stuff after it happens. Betting NBA = situation, motivation, pvp matchup skeelz

LookKaPyPy says:

11/25/09 10:37AM

the only math you ever get to work with is the aftermath

K4ngur13 says:

11/25/09 11:29AM

you are the biggest dumb ass. you must have been the one kid that come to a final in school and ask for number two pencil cuz you didn't have none.

tgarfield says:

11/25/09 11:39AM

I think I stuffed you in your locker in highschool.

gustoply282 says:

11/25/09 12:23PM

HoldenRg says:

11/25/09 12:35PM

BOL to you thinker. Math is a real beautiful thing. The numbers don't lie. I agree with you totally. If one takes a business approach to sports gambling one WILL profit

PEACE!

gamer63 says:

11/25/09 12:46PM

Falcon could you give an example of how your Mathematical Formula works in NHL?

tep says:

11/25/09 07:01PM

What would your record be betting against your mathematical line?

tep says:

11/25/09 07:11PM

No, I am asking how are the games fairing against your math line. Not fading. Against your math line are favorites wining more or less? Over or under is covering more?

tomius says:

11/26/09 07:53PM

Best of luck tonight , on the other side on Texas Total , but I 'm not a Football specialist!!On the same side with Giants points.

izmuny says:

11/26/09 02:23AM

looks like 6-12-1...love how i tailed you...i run so bad that i can destroy any capper on this site...long as im tailing you, you are screwed my man

gandalf6694 says:

11/28/09 06:46AM

I use a a mathmatical formula making my lines for the nba but you can not just blindly bet into those lines.There is alot that comes into play that you can not put into a math equation.Like motivation,revenge factors,and turmoil within the team.All this and whole lot more have to factored in when handicapping a game.Good luck with your numbers.

SirJohnDrake says:

11/25/09 06:54PM

You will gradually raise the flat bet...well believe me you're going to need to do that eventually when you start to see losses provided you have the bank to raise the level.

Why would I not believe that a more accurate line will win out? Because in gambling it's not about the line, it's about the money that you have. Money will win out always and so that's why I said you need a progressive wagering system and there will be no need to win at 55% of the time, 50% will do because your wagers won't be a fixed amount, it will vary.

Besides who is to say what line is more accurate and just because you feel you have an accurate line that doesn't mean you will always be on the right side 55% of the time. In the long run you will be on the right side very close to 50% of the time regardless that you believe you are dealing with a more accurate line that you have whipped up. Ok I won't say no more but good luck to you and make sure you keep accurate records on your experiment.

SirJohnDrake says:

11/25/09 04:35PM

Over time with numerous plays you won't be hitting close to 55%, you will be very close to 50% and so if you always keep your wagers the same amount you will be losing. The only way you could win being at 50% would be if you vary your wagers using a progressive wagering system.

Because you have a 50% chance of hitting everytime you make a pick on a matchup and after numerous upon numerous of wagers your winning pct. will be very close to 50% and this is because of a mathematical law called THE LAW OF AVERAGES.

SirJohnDrake says:

11/25/09 04:51PM

The only way to prove I'm right is for you to keep an on going record like how I do. Now you are going to always keep your wagers the same amount right? If so you will see thru time you will be at 50% and losing.

robbypants says:

11/25/09 08:07PM

robbypants says:

11/25/09 08:08PM

Please show me the light!

HoldenRg says:

11/25/09 01:00PM

we share some picks today, this is something to keep an eye on. bol to you sir BTW I send you a friend request hope you accept

PEACE!

bobtheking says:

11/25/09 02:47PM

You picked your favorites out in hockey, can you you do that in the nba too?

BigGame90 says:

11/25/09 07:51PM

It all comes down to a law of averages. Just because your numbers say the line should be one way, does not effect the outcome of the game. The books want you to bet longer, because in the long run the numbers all equal out around 50%. so in the mean time they are taking your 10% juice. GL its a theory, however so is throwing darts at a dart board.

BigGame90 says:

11/25/09 08:06PM

Im willing to bet in the "long run" your numbers will equal out to 52% or 48% if i were you i would stop now while your at 77% and call it a day, or a month in your case, or at the rate of your picks 2 weeks. Not much for a "LONG" period of time. Try 1000 picks ( maybe with no money, and then track it on wagerline.com and you will see your results. I have tried this and it all will equal out) If you actually know what your doing instead of following a set of numbers or equations ( that the books use to create a line, based off the LAW OF AVERAGES) you should be able to hit higher then 54%.
By the way this theory you mentioned does take some hugh rollercoaster swings. My theory on this system, is if the first few games lose, to bet the other way. If the first win, let them ride.

GL however if you stick with it, it will be nice to see the outcome.

BigGame90 says:

11/26/09 01:37AM

I'm guessing your getting your numbers from averages? Am i correct? I guarantee that your numbers do not hit over 55%. Your so called simple concept is not bullet proof. It it were everyone would be using that system. Some people get hot, and then they get cold. Its how this game works. The lines are set off a base set of numbers that gives the lines makers an AVERAGE FINAL SCORE. From that number they can add a point or 2, in your case sometimes 3 or more if need be for what ever reason could play into the game. They also take into account any injuries, home court, and where they believe people will be playing. Otherwise the books could care less on so called "precieved" lines. Books do not want to make major moves off their "average final score" lines because well, they are going against the average. Everything works off of averages. Book want an average of %50 on both sides. When the lines lean heavy on one side they move the line, to balance out the average money wagered. Its how you become balanced. They would rather have equal betting on both sides. When you find a line is off by 3 points from your so called lines, it could be for a reason we do not know about. Im still going to say you should have stoped after the first day and called it a day when you were 5 games ahead. Good luck going 55-45.

AChigurh says:

11/26/09 06:37PM

I dont know why people bask typos on this site. It does not happen on any other gambing sites and is just lpain annyoing. I dont spell check what i write i just write it. And if you are really interest in testing the accuracy of your system then PM me. If not, save the grammer correction for the fucking lit professors.

AChigurh says:

11/25/09 07:10PM

Math is for geeks and........... ADVATAGE GAMBLERS retard

AChigurh says:

11/25/09 07:11PM

There are much better ways to test the accurace of your system. Send me a PM and il get you in the right direction

glenndef62 says:

11/27/09 09:21AM

54%...I'd take that.....You took some serious heat, thinker....tell these guys "See ya when the smoke clears"!!!

glenndef62 says:

11/28/09 04:34PM

As a math lover, (although not very good it), I'll be rootin for ya, Falcon....If you can hit 55% over the long run, you've beaten life!!!

tripsurfer says:

11/26/09 02:19AM

tuff night Falcon better luck.... it sucks when the numbers roll and then you make the big post and they turn on you. stay with your system numbers will go right for ya next time...bol

Shiek1995 says:

11/25/09 04:44PM

MWdePro says:

11/25/09 07:00PM

Some real negative sht in the NBA forums,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cant believe how childish most people are here........They cant be happy with their own sunshine.........They want yours too......Good luck,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Jordan032503 says:

11/25/09 07:45PM

GL with your system

K4ngur13 says:

11/26/09 12:50AM

yea, you sound like you're still in H.S. go do your hw kid!

elcarim says:

11/26/09 07:49PM

hawks under 199

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