The_Dragon's Blog

Posted Friday, March 22, 2013 04:12 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 23rd

Time of Pick: 8:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 543, 544

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -12.5
Current Odds: -12.5
Betonline: -12.5
Pinnacle: -12.5
5 Dimes: -12.5

Situational Analysis
 
Illinois Chicago is coming off an 80-69 win over Chicago State in the CIT on March 20th. Daniel Barnes had 22 points.

Northern Iowa is coming off a 77-66 win over North Dakota on the 20th. Anthony James had 24 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Illinois Chicago has struggled in every other arena for bettors this year, other than its own, going just 5-8 ATS in road contests.

Note that Northern Iowa is 5-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Northern Iowa. I simply can't understate how important being able to play on their home floor will be for the Panthers in the second round of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament tonight. UNI is 14-3 at home this year, and one more victory would set the single-season record for home wins. UIC on the other hand earned its first ever postseason victory last time out. Experience and familiar surroundings tip the scales in favor of the home side in this one; consider laying the points!

Good luck, David

Posted Thursday, March 21, 2013 04:54 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 22nd

Time of Pick: 9:20 ET

TV: TBS, DTV: 247

Vegas rotation #'s: 829, 830

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -3
Current Odds: -3
Betonline: -3
Pinnacle: -3
5 Dimes: -3

Situational Analysis
 
Oklahoma is coming off a 73-66 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals on March 14th. Romero Osby was a lone bright spot with 18 points.

San Diego State is coming off a 60-50 loss to New Mexico in the semi-final round of the MWC tournament on March 15th. Xavier Thames had 14 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Oklahoma is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.

Note that San Diego State is 10-9 ATS as a favorite this season, and 3-2 ATS in all tournament games.

Pick Analysis

This is a 10* play on San Diego State. The Aztecs get the job done with tough defensive play, and I believe this will ultimately be the difference in the outcome tonight; SDSU's unit is ranked 13th in the country. Oklahoma has a capable point guard in Sam Grooms, but the plethora of guards that the Aztecs employ to slow down teams will prove to be too much. SDSU is also one of the NCAA's best rebounding teams, averaging 37 per game, and outrebounding opponents by an average margin of 3.2. I expect the Aztecs to get out and push the pace of this one from the outset, and for the Sooners fall away down the stretch!

Good luck, David

Posted Wednesday, March 20, 2013 04:02 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 21st

Time of Pick: 7:20 ET

TV: TNT, DTV: 245

Vegas rotation #'s: 729, 730

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -4.5
Current Odds: -4.5
Betonline: -4.5
Pinnacle: -4.5
5 Dimes: -4.5

Situational Analysis
 
Belmont is coming off a 70-68 OT win over Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament championship game on March 9th. Kerron Johnson had 12 points; JJ Mann had 18.

Arizona is coming off a 66-65 loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals. The Wildcats had already been assured a spot in the Tournament. Brandon Ashley had 15 points; Mark Lyons had 13.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Belmont is 1-2 ATS its last three as an underdog, and only 1-6 ATS this season in all tournament games.

Note that Arizona is 7-5 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Arizona. There's some room to read between the lines in the Bruins victory over the Racers, as they were actually outshot 53.3 percent to 49.1 percent, and were outrebounded by a whopping 33 to 23. The Wildcats on the other hand are coming off a frustrating setback, and will be eager to take their frustrations out on someone: ''I don't know what seed we're going to get,'' Arizona coach Sean Miller said after the loss to UCLA. ''We played well from start to finish and we lost. It's hard when you lose to a team three times.'' Consider laying the points on t... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 19, 2013 05:06 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 20th

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 653, 654

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +1.5
Current Odds: +1.5
Betonline: +1.5
Pinnacle: +1.5
5 Dimes: +1.5

Situational Analysis

The last time these teams played against each other, The Bison won 86-73 back on February 18th, 2012.
 
North Dakota State is coming off a 73-67 loss to South Dakota State on March 12th in the Summit League title game. Taylor Braun had 23 points. Mike Felt had nine points.

Western Michigan is coming off a 74-63 loss at Ohio on March 15th in the MAC semi's. Nate Hutcheson had 16 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that North Dakota State is a battle tested team, going 4-3 ATS in all tournament games this year.

Note that Western Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on North Dakota State. The teams have three common opponents: Western Michigan beat Oakland 76-72 at home, lost 71-66 at Duquesne, and lost 65-43 at Akron. NDSU split home wins with Oakland, won 57-43 at Duquesne, and lost 68-53 at Akron. North Dakota State's grit, determination, and experience prove to be the difference in the end between these two very evenly matched teams!

Good luck, David

Posted Monday, March 18, 2013 04:45 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 19th

Time of Pick: 7:35 ET

TV: MSG-Buffalo, TSN, RDS, DTV: 638, 776

Vegas rotation #'s:

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -176
Current Odds: -176
Betonline: -176
Pinnacle: -176
5 Dimes: -176

Situational Analysis
 
Buffalo has lost two straight, including a 5-3 loss at Washington on Sunday.

Montreal has won five straight, most recently a 2-1 win at New Jersey on Saturday.

These two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Buffalo is 10-15-4 overall, and just 5-9-2 on the road.

Note that Montreal is 19-5-4 overall, and 9-3-2 at home.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Montreal Canadiens. I believe the Habs are worth the price in this matchup. These teams have played twice this season, with each winning on its home ice. This trend continues here, as the red-hot Habs deliver the goods in front of the home town crowd by taking advantage of a Sabres side which is struggling in every facet of the game right now; lay the price!

Good luck, David

Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 02:35 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 18th

Time of Pick: 8:05 ET

TV: Altitude, CSN-Chicago+, DTV: 666, 681, 760, 761

Vegas rotation #'s: 513, 514

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +2.5
Current Odds: +2.5
Betonline: +2.5
Pinnacle: +2.5
5 Dimes: +2.5

Situational Analysis
 
Denver is coming off an 87-80 home win over Memphis on Friday. The Nuggets have won 11 straight, but with a tough game tomorrow night in Oklahoma City, I simply can't see how the they won't be caught looking ahead to that one.

Chicago is coming off a momentum building 113-95 win at Golden State on Friday. It snapped a two-game slide.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Denver is 45-22 overall, but just 15-19 SU away from friendly confines.

Note that Chicago is 36-29 SU overall, and 18-14 in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Chicago Bulls. These teams played on February 7th, and the Nuggets would win 128-96 in Denver, making the "revenge factor" a significant angle tonight. I believe there are overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side to warrant it a second look in this matchup.

Good luck, David

Posted Saturday, March 16, 2013 04:39 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 17th

Time of Pick: 7:05 ET

TV: FS-New Orleans, North, DTV: 668, 678, 755, 756

Vegas rotation #'s: 877, 878

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: 186.5
Current Odds: 186.5
Betonline: 186.5
Pinnacle: 186.5
5 Dimes: 186.5

Situational Analysis
 
New Orleans is coming off a 96-87 loss at Washington on Friday. Eric Gordon led the way with 20 points.

Minnesota is coming off a 108-100 setback at Houston on Friday. The Wolves were held to only 17 field goals after the break, as the team continues to deal with a rash of injuries. Minnesota's defense was a bright spot though, holding the league's highest scoring team to just 39 first half points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that New Orleans is 22-44 SU overall, but just 10-24 on the road. And note that the Hornets host Golden State tomorrow night.

Note that Minnesota 22-31 SU overall, and 15-16 in front of the home town crowd. And note that the Wolves are in Memphis tomorrow night.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the "under" New Orleans/Minnesota. These teams have played each other three times this year. Minnesota won 113-102 in New Orleans on December 14th. New Orleans won 104-92 at home on January 11th. The Wolves won 115-86 in Minnesota on February 2nd. All three games went "over" the posted number. However, because of the "situation" each team finds itself in coming into this contest, I believe this strong trend finally gets bucked ... [More]

Posted Friday, March 15, 2013 06:02 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 16th

Time of Pick: 8:05 ET

TV: FS-Prime Ticket, Midwest, DTV: 671, 693, 782, 783

Vegas rotation #'s: 21, 22

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +105
Current Odds:
Betonline:
Pinnacle:
5 Dimes:

Situational Analysis
 
These teams have played twice this year. Anaheim won 6-5 in St. Louis on February 9th, and 4-2 at home on March 10th.

Anaheim is coming off a 2-1 shootout win at Dallas on Thursday. Goaltender Jonas Hiller is 7-0-1 in his last eight outings: ''If you're fighting hard and doing the right things, things will go your way,'' said Hiller after the win.

St. Louis is coming off a 3-0 win over Phoenix on Thursday. Jake Allen made 29 saves. Chris Stewart had two goals and an assist.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Anaheim is 20-3-3 overall, and 9-2-3 on the road.

Note that St. Louis is 15-10-2 overall, and 7-5-1 at home.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim is 7-0-2 in its last nine, and is an amazing 11-2-1 when its opponent scores first. For me this one comes down to goaltending though; great value on Hiller in this matchup. Consider a second look at the red hot Anaheim Ducks tonight!

Good luck, David

Posted Thursday, March 14, 2013 01:59 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 15th

Time of Pick: 9:00 ET

TV: CBSSN, DTV: 613

Vegas rotation #'s: 877, 878

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +1
Current Odds: +1
Betonline: +1
Pinnacle: +1
5 Dimes: +1

Situational Analysis

San Diego State won 55-34 at home over New Mexico on January 26th, before New Mexico won 70-60 over SDSU on February 27th.
 
San Diego State is is coming off a 73-67 win over Boise State on the 13th. Jamaal Franklin had 19 points and eight boards; Xavier Thames had 18 points; Chase Tapley had 17, and four steals: "The game plan going in was just pressuring the ball more and getting into them," said Tapley after. "We got a lot of deflections that led to fast breaks. That's what we need to do for 40 minutes; we can't do it for 20. But I liked our new concept, pressuring the ball and getting them out of their comfort zone on offense." .

New Mexico is coming off a 59-46 win over Wyoming on the 13th. Tony Snell had 15 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that San Diego State has won 91 straight games that it's led with five minutes remaining.

Note that New Mexico led start to finish in its win over Wyoming.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on San Diego State. Two very evenly matched teams, and each comes into this contest with considerable momentum. But after watching the Aztecs' impressive defensive performance last time out, I believe they'll pull off the victory tonight, and win the se... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 13, 2013 04:05 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: March 14

Time of Pick: 9:30 ET

TV: CBSSN, DTV: 613

Vegas rotation #'s: 759, 760

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: PK
Current Odds: PK
Betonline: PK
Pinnacle: PK
5 Dimes: PK

Situational Analysis

These teams played on February 20th, and East Carolina won 72-63 in Tulsa as a 3.5 point fav.
 
East Carolina is coming off an 86-79 win over Marshall on the 9th. Miguel Paul had 22 points and 10 assists; Maurice Kemp added 21 points. East Carolina is a vastly improved team this year from seasons past, and posted a winning conference record for the first time since joining back in 2001.

Tulsa is coming off a 77-71 win at Rice on the 9th. D'Andre Wright had 15 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that East Carolina is is 5-4 ATS in its last nine neutral court games, and 6-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more.

Note that Tulsa is just 1-2 ATS in all neutral court games this year, and only 1-3 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on East Carolina. The 4th and 5th seed meet in the second round of the C-USA Tournament. Very evenly matched, but the Pirates already have the confidence in beating this Tulsa team earlier in the year, and is unchartered waters right now as far as its record, and overall turn around season. I believe that's the difference in tipping the scales in their favor as this team leaves everything it has on the floor a... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 12, 2013 04:26 PM

Chan's Free Play: March 13th

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: MASN, ALT, CSNCA, DTV: 640, 681, 698

Vegas rotation #'s: 657, 658

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +8.5
Current Odds: +8.5
Betonline: +8.5
Pinnacle: +8.5
5 Dimes: +8.5

Situational Analysis

These teams played twice during the regular season. WVU won 77-61 at Texas Tech on February 2nd, and 66-64 at home on February 16th.
 
Texas Tech is coming off a tough 71-69 OT loss to Texas on March 9th. Jaye Crockett led the way with 15 points and eight boards.

West Virginia is coming off an 83-74 loss to Iowa State on March 9th. Jabarie Hinds had 19 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Texas Tech is 5-4 ATS this year in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. And interestingly, the Red Raiders are 8-7 during weekday games, compared to just 2-12 in games played on the weekend.

Note that West Virginia is just 5-8 ATS as a favorite this year, and just 2-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Texas Tech. This was the first year that WVU finished the regular season with a losing record since 2002. Simply put, these are a couple of bad teams. The Red Raiders though were on the cusp of beating the Mountaineers last time out, and I believe have a legitimate shot at getting the better of WVU outright this time around in the opening round of the Big 12 Championship; that said, I'll recommend grabbing th... [More]

Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 04:20 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 8:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 573, 574

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -2.5
Current Odds: -2.5
Betonline: -2.5
Pinnacle: -2.5
5 Dimes: -2.5

Situational Analysis
 
Nevada is coming off a 77-66 loss at Colorado State on March 9th. Deonte Burton had 27 points.

Wyoming has had a few extra days to absorb its 78-56 loss to Colorado State on the 6th. Larry Nance Jr. had 16 points; Derrious Gilmore added 12.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Nevada's offense is ranked seventh in the Mountain West, averaging just 67 PPG.

Note that Wyoming is ranked second in the league in three-point defense at 28.6 percent.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Wyoming. These teams played twice this year. Wyoming won 59-48 in Nevada on January 12th. Wyoming also beat the Wolf Pack 68-49 in front of the home town crowd on February 13th. And now these two face each other in the conference tournament's first round. To put it bluntly, this is simply a horrible matchup for the Wolf Pack, who were outplayed in all phases in their regular season setbacks. The Pokes have in fact won eight straight in the series, and I expect that mark to be added to here; consider a second look at Wyoming in this one!

Good luck, David

Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 03:35 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 519, 520

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -7
Current Odds: -7
Betonline: -7
Pinnacle: -7
5 Dimes: -7

Situational Analysis
 
Miami Ohio is coming off a 58-54 loss at Ohio on the 9th. Will Felder had 20 points; Jon Harris had 13 points and nine boards.

Bowling Green is coming off a 76-65 win over Buffalo on the 8th. Jordan Crawford had 26 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Miami Ohio is just 8-21 SU overall, and a dismal 3-13 away from friendly confines.

Note that Bowling Green is only 13-18 SU overall, but there's no doubt that it's a "different" team in front of the home town crowd, going 11-4.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Bowling Green. These teams split the season series, with each team winning on its home floor. I believe this strong trend continues here. The RedHawks have lost nine straight. Bowling Green enters the MAC Tournament opener off a convincing effort. I simply can't see Miami Ohio matching the production of the Falcons on the offensive end (BGSU has scored 94 points in the paint over the past two games). The Falcons have also outrebounded five of their last six opponents, and are +52 during the six-game stretch. Consider laying the points on the "better" team!

Good luck, David

Posted Saturday, March 09, 2013 06:59 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 10th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208

Vegas rotation #'s: 829, 830

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -7.5
Current Odds: -7.5
Betonline: -7.5
Pinnacle: -7.5
5 Dimes: -7.5

Situational Analysis
 
Maryland is coming off a 79-68 loss to North Carolina on the 6th. Dez Wells had 18 points. Nick Faust chipped in 16. It was a disappointing setback for the Terps as the Tournament draws near.

The Cavaliers will be eager to return to friendly confines after Thursday's frustrating 53-51 setback at Florida State. Akil Mitchell had 15 points, while Joe Harris had 12.

Statistical Analysis

Maryland is 20-10, but just 3-6 away from friendly confines.

Virginia is 20-10, and has clearly been a "different" team at home all year, going a near perfect 17-1 in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is 1* free play on Virginia. These teams played on March 10th, and Virginia would win 80-69. This is a big game for both teams obviously. But the home side certainly has a lot to play for here, as a victory today would clinch the Cavs the No. 4 seed and a first round bye in the ACC Tournament. It's the final home game of the year, and after two straight road losses, a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for this Cavaliers team to get untracked. I simply feel that Virginia's tough defensive play will once again prove to be too much f... [More]

Posted Friday, March 08, 2013 06:15 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 9th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 9:00 ET

TV: ESPN Full Court, DTV: 721

Vegas rotation #'s: 627, 628

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -9.5
Current Odds: -9.5
Betonline: -9.5
Pinnacle: -9.5
5 Dimes: -9.5

Situational Analysis

UT Arlington is 17-11 overall, and 10-4 on the road. It's coming off a lacklustre 84-55 loss at Denver on March 7th.

New Mexico State is 20-10 overall and a near perfect 14-1 at home this season. It's coming off a 78-60 win over Louisiana Tech on March 7th. Daniel Mullings led the way with 23 points. Tyrone Watson had 12 points and 11 boards.

Statistical Analysis

The lone bright spot in UT Arlington's last game was Karol Gruszecki, who had 16 points and five boards.

Note that New Mexico State shot 55 percent from the floor vs. LA Tech, en route to clinching the No. 3 tournament seed.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on New Mexico State. When these teams battled each other last, the Mavericks would come away with the 68-47 win back on December 29th, 2012. But that was then, and this is now. And now is senior night in New Mexico State. I believe the home side turns up the heat as it prepares for a tournament run, builds off its last victory, and uses the earlier loss to UT Arlington as the motivation to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Good luck, David

Posted Thursday, March 07, 2013 02:59 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 8th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:30 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 853, 854

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: PK
Current Odds: PK
Betonline: PK
Pinnacle: PK
5 Dimes: PK

Situational Analysis

This is the opener for the 2013 Sun Belt Conference championship.

North Texas is coming off a 74-50 win over Arkansas State on February 28th. Alzee Williams had 19 points, while Jordan Williams added 12.

Lafayette is coming off a 71-63 win at LA Monroe on the 2nd. Shawn Long had 17 points and 10 boards. Alan-Michael Thompson and Bryant Mabamalu each had 13.

Statistical Analysis

In the win over LA Monroe, Louisiana would go 50% from behind the arc (8 of 19); this would prove to be the difference, and I believe this team carries that accuracy and momentum over into this one.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Ragin Cajuns. These teams have played two games this year. Lafayette won 80-76 in North Texas on December 1st, before destroying the Mean Green 105-74 on its home floor. Long had a double-double in that one as well with 23 points and 13 boards. Mabamalu had 18. This is simply a bad matchup for North Texas, which allowed Lafayette to shoot almost 63% from the floor in the second half. Ultimately though, I feel that the Ragin Cajuns will have last seasons disappointment square at the front of their minds. Louisiana swept UNT during the regular season, only to... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 06, 2013 06:53 PM

NHL: Free Play March 7th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:35 ET

TV: SNET-West, FS-Detroit, DTV: 663

Vegas rotation #'s: 67, 68

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -170
Current Odds: -170
Bookmaker: -170
Pinnacle: -162
5 Dimes: -170

Situational Analysis

Edmonton is just 4-5-3 on the road this year, and is coming off a 4-3 OT loss at Columbus on Tuesday. It was the Oilers third loss in a row.

Detroit is 8-4-2 at home, and is coming off a 2-1 win over Colorado on Tuesday. Goaltender Jimmy Howard was brilliant, stopping 36 shots. Niklas Kronwall and Johan Franzen potted the goals.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Edmonton is 0-3 this year after playing three consecutive road games.

Note that Detroit has won four of the last five in this series, including a 2-1 victory at home on February 9th.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Detroit Red Wings. Simply a tough spot for the Oilers, who must turn around and hit the road for a game the following night in Nashville, before heading to undefeated Chicago on Sunday. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case, I have no problem in recommending a second look at the home side in this one!

Good luck, David

Posted Tuesday, March 05, 2013 06:04 PM

NHL: Free Play March 6th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:05 ET

TV: RDS, TSN, DTV: 769

Vegas rotation #'s: 1, 2

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -155
Current Odds: -155
Bookmaker: -155
Pinnacle: -155
5 Dimes: -155

Situational Analysis

Ottawa is coming off a 3-2 OT loss at the Islanders on Sunday. It was the third straight loss, and the Sens are struggling to put the biscuit in the basket.

Toronto is coming off a 4-2 win over New Jersey on Monday. Goaltender James Reimer has won two in a row. Reimer is a near perfect 5-1-1 with a 1.70 GAA vs. the Sens in his career.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Ottawa is 12-7-4 overall, but just 3-6-2 on the road. It's scored just four total goals to go 0-1-2 to start a five-game trip.

Note that Toronto is 4-1-0 in its last five in front of the home town crowd. The Leafs have scored at least four goals in the past three wins. Nazem Kadri has four goals and five assists during a five-game streak.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Toronto Maple Leafs. These teams have split two meetings this year. The Leafs won 3-0 at home on February 16th, before the Sens would return the favor in a 3-2 victory in Ottawa a week later. I believe this home ice advantage trend continues tonight, and that Toronto continues its excellent play of late. Consider laying the price!

Good luck, David

Posted Monday, March 04, 2013 07:37 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 5th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: STO, ESPN 3.com, DTV: 662

Vegas rotation #'s: 523, 524

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +18
Current Odds: +16
Sportsinteraction: +16.5
Pinnacle: +16
5 Dimes: +16

Situational Analysis

The RedHawks are coming off a 78-58 loss to Kent State on the 2nd. It was Miami Ohio's seventh straight setback. Will Felder had 18 points on 7 of 10 shooting.

Akron is coming off an 81-67 loss at Buffalo on the 2nd. Zeke Marshall led the way with 17 points.

Statistical Analysis

While Miami Ohio has been an overall disappointment for bettors this year in almost every single ATS statistical category, it's still significant to note that it's 2-0 ATS over the last two years as a road dog in the 15.5 to 18 point range.

Note that Akron is just 5-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, and 0-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Miami Ohio. The last time these teams played against each other, Akron would hold on for the 54-50 win on February 9th. Akron had a 19 game win streak snapped in the setback to Buffalo. This often has a hangover like effect for College level athletes, and I believe that's going to be the case tonight. While I'm not calling for an outright upset, I definitely feel that the pieces are in place for the RedHawks to keep this one much closer than wha... [More]

Posted Sunday, March 03, 2013 08:20 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 4th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208

Vegas rotation #'s: 715, 716

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -24.5
Current Odds: -24.5
LVH: -24.5
Pinnacle: -24.5
5 Dimes: -24.5

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech is 10-17 SU overall, and just 1-7 on the road. It's coming off a 72-63 win over TCU on the 2nd.

Kansas is 25-4 SU overall, and 16-1 at home. It's coming off a 91-65 win over West Virginia on the 2nd. Ben McLemore had 36 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Texas Tech is just 6-12 ATS as an underdog this year, and 2-6 ATS on the road.

Note that Kansas is 9-6 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest, and 9-7 ATS vs. conference opponents.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Kansas. These teams played on January 13th, and Kansas would hammer Texas Tech 60-46. The Red Raiders continue to struggle in this matchup, as I expect an even bigger lopsided affair this time around. This is a big game for the home side, which can not afford to let up even a tiny bit as the regular season winds down, as take note that the Jayhawks are tied atop the Big 12 and in a real dog fight with Kansas State. Texas Tech has lost 28 in a row to Top 25 teams, and that streak of futility gets extended tonight; consider a second look at Kansas in this one!

Good luck, David

Posted Saturday, March 02, 2013 08:38 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 3rd

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 2:00 ET

TV: Big East Net, MASN, ESPN Full Court, DTV: 723

Vegas rotation #'s:

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +4
Current Odds: +4
Bookmaker: +4
Pinnacle: +4
5 Dimes: +4

Situational Analysis

DePaul is coming off a 79-58 loss to Louisville on the 27th. Brandon Young had 22 points; Cleveland Melvin added 20. ''I think we just let up,'' Young said after. ''We can go as hard as we want to. We just kept letting them do what they like to do. I don't think we stopped it real well.''

South Florida is coming off a 64-44 loss at Pittsburgh on the 27th. Victor Rudd had 16 points.

Statistical Analysis

DePaul is 6-3 ATS on the road this year, and 4-3 ATS after three or more consecutive losses.

South Florida is 3-12 ATS vs. conference opponents, and just 3-6 ATS after three or more consecutive losses.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on DePaul. These two bottom feeders have played every year since 1995. Last season USF won 75-59. But DePaul is a year older, and I don't think the Bulls have anyone that can properly matchup against Young and Melvin. In this game of very evenly matched schools, I'll recommend in grabbing the points!

Good luck, David

Posted Friday, March 01, 2013 10:07 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 2nd

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: FS-West, DTV: 692

Vegas rotation #'s: 675, 675

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +3
Current Odds: +3
LVH: +3
Pinnacle: +3
5 Dimes: +3

Situational Analysis

Long Beach State will be looking to atone for a 68-60 setback to Stephen F. Austin on the 22nd. Mike Caffey lead all scorers with 24 points. James Ennis added 12 points and 10 rebounds.

Cal Irvine is coming off a 77-70 win over Texas Arlington on the 23rd. Will Davis II and Adam Folker scored 16 points apiece.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Long Beach State is 8-7 ATS vs. conference opponents this year, and 4-2 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less or pick.

Note that Cal Irvine is just 6-9 ATS vs. conference opponents, and just 3-7 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Long Beach State. The last time these teams played against each other the 49ers would win 81-59 on January 26th, and I'm expecting a similar result here. LBSU enjoys significant matchup advantages, and will look to once again exploit them tonight, as a victory will clinch it the outright Big West regular season crown. Consider a second look at the visitors in this one!

Good luck, David

Posted Thursday, February 28, 2013 08:37 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 1st

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 833, 834

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +2
Current Odds: +2
Boomaker: +2
Pinnacle: +2
5 Dimes: +2

Situational Analysis

Marist is coming off a 112-74 win over Virginia Military on the 23rd. Chavaughn Lewis had career-highs of 30 points and 16 rebounds. Let's not get too caught up in that victory though, as Marist is just 8-20 overall, and 2-11 on the road.

Siena is coming off a 65-57 OT win over Radford on the 24th. Davis Martens had 18 points and nine boards; O.D. Anosike added 11 points and 14 rebounds. The victory snapped a five-game losing streak, and suffice it to say, I'm expecting this team to carry that momentum over into tonight's contest.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Marist is just 4-5 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 64 points or less per contest this year, and just 3-4 ATS following a conference games.

Note that Siena is 5-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, and 6-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Siena. The last time these teams played against each other, Siena came away with a 79-75 win on January 27th. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I simply can't understate how important home floor advantage will be this evening, and look for the Saints to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night;... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 27, 2013 07:03 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 28th

Title of Pick: Chan' Free Pick

Time of Pick: 11:00 ET

TV: ESPN2, DTV: 209

Vegas rotation #'s: 547, 548

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +6
Current Odds: +6
Bookmaker: +6
Pinnacle: +6
5 Dimes: +6

Situational Analysis

This is a revenge game for BYU after it fell 83-63 to Gonzaga back on January 24th.

Gonzaga is coming off a relatively easy 81-50 victory over San Diego on the 23rd. Kevin Pangos had 18 points. The team has now won 10 straight games.

BYU is coming off a 64-57 setback at St. Mary's on the 21st. It was an unfortunate loss, as the Cougars did in fact hold the Gaels to just 36% shooting from the floor. BYU shot over 51%, but was just 12 of 19 from the charity stripe. Brandon Davies led the way with 25 points and nine boards.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Gonzaga is just 3-4 ATS its last seven as a road fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 range.

Note that BYU is 3-2 ATS in its last five in revenging a road loss.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on BYU. Gonzaga has actually won three straight over BYU. A victory tonight and the Zags will clinch the league title outright. Easier said than done in my humble opinion though, as the Cougars will be looking to play spoiler on their home floor, and to atone for the earlier setbacks. The last time that the Bulldogs lost to the Cougars was an 83-73 road loss a year ago. WCC scoring leader Tyler Haws was held to just a ... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 27, 2013 06:27 AM

NCAAB: Free Play February 27th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 723, 724

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +5.5
Current Odds: +5.5
LVH: +5.5
Pinnacle: +5.5
5 Dimes: +5.5

Situational Analysis

This is a "revenge game" for the home side after it lost 69-54 at Hofstra on January 9th.

Delaware is coming off a 79-78 win at NC Wilmington on February 23rd. Devon Saddler had 24 points.

Hofstra is coming off a momentum building 70-59 win over Old Dominion on the 24th, and I believe this team carries that play over into this contest. David Imes had 18 points, while Taran Buie added 15. Stevie Mejia chipped in 10 points and 10 assists. Hofstra would hold OD to just 37.5% shooting.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Delaware is just 5-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

Note that Hofstra is a near perfect 7-1 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Hofstra. "Revenge" is a powerful motivator, and I believe will ultimately prove to the be the difference here. These teams are actually very evenly matched, and I believe that home court advantage can not be overlooked in this one; grab the points!

Good luck, David

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