The_Dragon's Blog

Posted Thursday, February 28, 2013 08:37 PM

NCAAB: Free Play March 1st

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 833, 834

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +2
Current Odds: +2
Boomaker: +2
Pinnacle: +2
5 Dimes: +2

Situational Analysis

Marist is coming off a 112-74 win over Virginia Military on the 23rd. Chavaughn Lewis had career-highs of 30 points and 16 rebounds. Let's not get too caught up in that victory though, as Marist is just 8-20 overall, and 2-11 on the road.

Siena is coming off a 65-57 OT win over Radford on the 24th. Davis Martens had 18 points and nine boards; O.D. Anosike added 11 points and 14 rebounds. The victory snapped a five-game losing streak, and suffice it to say, I'm expecting this team to carry that momentum over into tonight's contest.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Marist is just 4-5 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 64 points or less per contest this year, and just 3-4 ATS following a conference games.

Note that Siena is 5-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, and 6-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Siena. The last time these teams played against each other, Siena came away with a 79-75 win on January 27th. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I simply can't understate how important home floor advantage will be this evening, and look for the Saints to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night;... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 27, 2013 07:03 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 28th

Title of Pick: Chan' Free Pick

Time of Pick: 11:00 ET

TV: ESPN2, DTV: 209

Vegas rotation #'s: 547, 548

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +6
Current Odds: +6
Bookmaker: +6
Pinnacle: +6
5 Dimes: +6

Situational Analysis

This is a revenge game for BYU after it fell 83-63 to Gonzaga back on January 24th.

Gonzaga is coming off a relatively easy 81-50 victory over San Diego on the 23rd. Kevin Pangos had 18 points. The team has now won 10 straight games.

BYU is coming off a 64-57 setback at St. Mary's on the 21st. It was an unfortunate loss, as the Cougars did in fact hold the Gaels to just 36% shooting from the floor. BYU shot over 51%, but was just 12 of 19 from the charity stripe. Brandon Davies led the way with 25 points and nine boards.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Gonzaga is just 3-4 ATS its last seven as a road fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 range.

Note that BYU is 3-2 ATS in its last five in revenging a road loss.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on BYU. Gonzaga has actually won three straight over BYU. A victory tonight and the Zags will clinch the league title outright. Easier said than done in my humble opinion though, as the Cougars will be looking to play spoiler on their home floor, and to atone for the earlier setbacks. The last time that the Bulldogs lost to the Cougars was an 83-73 road loss a year ago. WCC scoring leader Tyler Haws was held to just a ... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 27, 2013 06:27 AM

NCAAB: Free Play February 27th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 723, 724

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +5.5
Current Odds: +5.5
LVH: +5.5
Pinnacle: +5.5
5 Dimes: +5.5

Situational Analysis

This is a "revenge game" for the home side after it lost 69-54 at Hofstra on January 9th.

Delaware is coming off a 79-78 win at NC Wilmington on February 23rd. Devon Saddler had 24 points.

Hofstra is coming off a momentum building 70-59 win over Old Dominion on the 24th, and I believe this team carries that play over into this contest. David Imes had 18 points, while Taran Buie added 15. Stevie Mejia chipped in 10 points and 10 assists. Hofstra would hold OD to just 37.5% shooting.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Delaware is just 5-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

Note that Hofstra is a near perfect 7-1 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Hofstra. "Revenge" is a powerful motivator, and I believe will ultimately prove to the be the difference here. These teams are actually very evenly matched, and I believe that home court advantage can not be overlooked in this one; grab the points!

Good luck, David

Posted Monday, February 25, 2013 08:24 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 26th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208

Vegas rotation #'s: 523, 524

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +11
Current Odds: +11
LVH: +11
Pinnacle: +11
5 Dimes: +11

Situational Analysis

Auburn will be looking to rebound after losing a listless 88-55 contest at Mississippi on the 23rd. Shaquille Johnson had 18 points.

Alabama is coming off a crushing 97-94 triple OT loss at LSU on the 23rd. Trevor Releford had 36 points; Rodney Cooper chipped in 18.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Auburn is 11-8 ATS as an underdog this year, and 10-7 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

Note that Alabama is just 2-9 ATS at home this season, and 0-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Auburn. These teams last played on February 6th, and the Tigers would come away with a convincing 49-37 victory. Eight of the Crimson Tide's 14 SEC games have been decided by four points or less. Expect another battle here, and consider a second look at the visitors in this one!

Good luck, David

Posted Sunday, February 24, 2013 07:04 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 25th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208

Vegas rotation #'s: 711, 712

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -19.5
Current Odds: -19.5
LVH: -19.5
Pinnacle: -19.5
5 Dimes: -19.5

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech is just 1-6 SU on the road. The Red Raiders have in fact lost eight in a row overall. Most recently they got hammered 86-66 at Iowa State on Saturday.

Is a big game for the home side as it's in a tight battle for its first ever Big 12 title. Most recently the Wildcats beat Texas 81-69 on Saturday. Rodney McGruder had 20 points, and four players would go on to score in double figures.

Statistical Analysis

Not only is Texas Tech just 4-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, but it's also just 5-9 ATS vs. conference opponents, and 6-11 ATS as an underdog this season.

Note that Kansas State is 10-7 ATS this season as a favorite. It's also 8-6 ATS vs. conference opponents, and 8-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Kansas State. These teams played on February 5th, and Kansas State would go on to win 68-59 at Texas Tech. It was not able to cover the 11 point spread. I believe K-State's clear home court advantage (15-1 SU so far this year), and it's sheer determination turns out to be the difference in the end today though, and expect the Wildcats to pull away down t... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 23, 2013 08:01 PM

NHL: Free Play February 24th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 5:05 ET

TV: TSN-Jets, MSG+, DTV: 635, 770

Vegas rotation #'s: 3, 4

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -170
Current Odds: -170
LVH: -170
Pinnacle: -170
5 Dimes: -170

Situational Analysis

Winnipeg's achilles heel has always been its play on the road, and it's had an especially difficult time whenever playing in New Jersey, having dropped five straight in this series on the road. Most recently the Jets are coming off 5-3 loss at Philadelphia yesterday.

The Devils are 6-1-2 at home this year. After losing 5-1 to the Capitals on Saturday, venerable goaltender Martin Brodeur is expected back between the pipes. Brodeur is 5-1-1 with a 1.84 GAA over his last seven outings, and has posted a minuscule 1.57 GAA in winning his last five starts vs. the Jets franchise.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Winnipeg is just 3-5 (-1.2 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.

Note that New Jersey is 4-2 (+1.8 units) when playing against a team with a losing record.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the New Jersey Devils. The Jets are mired in an 0 for 21 slump on the power-play right now. Their penalty kill has been equally as inept of late, allowing three goals on six opportunities in the loss to the Flyers. I believe the home side takes full advantage of this tired Winnipeg team. Lay the price!

Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 10:19 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 23rd

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 8:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 597, 598

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -5
Current Odds: -4.5
LVH: -5
Pinnacle: -4.5
5 Dimes: -5

Situational Analysis

The Cardinal are coming off an 82-72 win at Oregon State on February 21st. Josh Huestis had 20 points and 11 boards; Dwight Powell added 14 points and 11 boards.

The Ducks are coming off a disheartening 48-46 loss to California on the 21st. Arsalan Kazemi had 11 points and 18 boards. Carlos Emory chipped in 13 points. Not only was it a season-low in points, but it was a season low 27.6 percent shooting from the floor. The Ducks were also just 2 of 15 from behind the arc, and 12 of 20 from the charity stripe. To say this team will be looking to atone for that setback would be a bit of an understatement I'd say. Expect a much more concerted effort from the opening tip, until the final horn this evening.

Statistical Analysis

Not only is Stanford just 7-10 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record, but it's also only 4-5 ATS on the road this season.

Note that Oregon is in fact 6-4 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Oregon. This is a "revenge game" for the home side after it lost 76-52 to Stanford on February 23rd. The Ducks have their back against the wall, tied now with Arizona for first place in... [More]

Posted Thursday, February 21, 2013 08:35 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 22nd

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: N/A

Vegas rotation #'s: 831, 832

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -1
Current Odds: -1
Bookmaker: -1
Pinnacle: -1
5 Dimes: -1

Situational Analysis

Princeton is 5-4 SU on the road. It's coming off a 69-57 setback at Harvard on the 16th. Ian Hummer had 18 points.

Columbia is 4-5 SU at home. The Lions are coming off a 75-56 setback to Yale on the 16th. Steve Frankoski had 16 points. Columbia is stumbling to the finish line, having lost two straight, and six of its last seven.

Statistical Analysis

Not only is Princeton 5-2 ATS on the road, it's also 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing against a team with a losing record.

Not only is Columbia just 2-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year, but it's also just 1-3 ATS when playing with five or six days of rest.

Pick Analysis
 
This is a 1* free play on the Princeton Tigers. This is simply a bad matchup for Columbia. When these teams tangled on February 2nd, Princeton would come away with a 72-66 victory. I'm fully expecting a similar result tonight, as the visitors take full advantage of their mismatches to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Good luck, David

Posted Wednesday, February 20, 2013 09:00 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 21st

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN2, DTV: 209

Vegas rotation #'s: 509, 510

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -10
Current Odds: -10
Bookmaker: -10
Pinnacle: -10
5 Dimes: -10

Situational Analysis

This is a "revenge game" for the home side after it lost to Georgia 81-59 on February 8th, 2012.

The Bulldogs are coming off an 84-74 OT loss at Mississippi on the 16th. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 19 points and 12 board. Kenny Gaines added 13.

The Razorbacks are coming off a 73-71 win over Missouri on February 16th. Arkansas actually trailed 70-66 with less than one minute remaining. Marshawn Powell led the way with 24 points; BJ Young added 18, while Coty Clarke chipped in 13.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Georgia is in fact just 26-32 ATS in its last 58 when playing against a team with a winning record.

Not only is Arkansas 5-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year, but it's also 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 15-1 at Bud Walton arena this year. Arkansas is 3-3 vs. teams in the top 50 and are still the only team in the SEC to beat the Florida Gators in league play. The Bulldogs sloppy play will once again come back to plague them here, as they're giving up the ball more than 15 times per game, with on... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 19, 2013 10:49 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 20th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN Full Court, DTV: 723

Vegas rotation #'s: 801, 802

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: 2
Current Odds: 2
Betonline: 2
Pinnacle: 2
5 Dimes: 2

Situational Analysis

This is a revenge game for Morehead State after it lost 66-60 to the Racers on January 18th, 2012.

Murray State is coming off a 79-70 setback at Eastern Illinois on the 16th. Stacy Wilson had 20 points. Dexter Fields added 14. Isaiah Canaan added 12. Jeffrey Moss chipped in 11.

Morehead State is coming off a 65-63 win over Tennesse Tech last time out. Chad Posthumus finished with 13 points. Angelo Warner finished with 12.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Murray State is just 4-6 ATS on the road this year, and 2-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.

It's interesting to note that Morehead State is just 27-20 ATS in its last 47 following a conference game.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Morehead State. It's Senior Night at Morehead State, the final game of its home portion of its 2012-13 schedule. This is in fact a double revenge situation for the home side. In last year's setback the Eagles actually held the lead with four minutes left when the Racers were 18-0 and ranked nationally. These teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by the oddsmakers. The difference is the significant external motivating factors... [More]

Posted Monday, February 18, 2013 09:28 PM

NHL: Free Play February 19th

Title of Pick: David Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 8:35 ET

TV: SNET-Pacific, CSN-Chicago, DTV: 665, 775, 776

Vegas rotation #'s: 63, 64

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: 5.5
Current Odds: 5.5
LVH: 5.5
Pinnacle: 5.5
5 Dimes: 5.5

Situational Analysis

Vancouver is one of just three teams to hand the Blackhawks a loss this year; it wasn't able to get the job done in regulation though. Roberto Luongo is 4-0-3 with a 1.63 GAA. Corey Schneider is 4-3-0 with a 2.62 GAA.

Most recently the Blackhawks are coming off a 3-2 home victory over LA on Sunday. In this strike shortened season, every game is crucial: "What's important to us is getting home-ice advantage, making the playoffs," said Chicago captain Jonathan Toews yesterday. "Those are our goals. Once you get there, the real season starts. When you get to that point, no one really cares or remembers those streaks at the start of the season." Goaltender Ray Emery has been key to the team's success, going 5-0-0 with a 2.17 GAA. Corey Crawford is 7-0-3 with a 1.65 GAA.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Vancouver has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four when playing against a team with a winning record, and in its last three road games where the total is 5.5.

Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in four of five vs. teams with winning records and in all four home games this year where the total is 5.5.
... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 09:52 PM

NCAAB: Free Play February 18th

Title of Pick: David Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 9:00 EST

TV: ESPN, DTV: 206

Vegas rotation #'s: 709, 710

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +10.5
Current Odds: +10.5
LVH: +10.5
Pinnacle: +10.5
5 Dimes: +10.5

Situational Analysis

This is a "revenge game" for the Mountaineers after they lost 65-64 to Kansas State on January 12th.

WVU comes into this game with plenty of momentum as well after beating Texas Tech 66-64 on February 16th. Deniz Kilicli had 25 points. Eron Harris chipped in 15. It was the third sweep of a Big 12 team in WVU's inaugural season after coming over from the Big East. WVU was sharp in the second half, shooting almost 59% from the floor.

The Wildcats are coming off an 81-61 win over Baylor on the 16th. Angel Rodriguez had 22 points; Shane Southwell added 18 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that West Virginia is 7-6 ATS vs. conference opponents this year, and 3-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

Note that Kansas State is just 1-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, and just 3-4 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free-play on West Virginia. I believe these teams are very evenly matched, and believe the obvious "revenge factor" can not be overlooked. While I won't call for an outright victory, I do believe that WVU keeps this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beli... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 03:38 AM

NCAAB: Free Play February 17th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 8:00 ET

TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208

Vegas rotation #'s: 823, 824

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -2
Current Odds: -2
LVH: -2
Pinnacle: -2
5 Dimes: -2

Situational Analysis

Wichita State is most recently coming off a 71-56 win over Drake on February 13th. Fred VanVleet had 17 points off the bench. However, this is a "revenge game" for the home side after it lost 74-62 to the Shockers on January 16th.

Illinois State comes into this game with plenty of momentum after hammering Bradley 79-59 on February 13th. Jackie Carmichael had 27 points and 13 boards. Tyler Brown added 22 points, eight boards and five assists. And it was the way the Redbirds closed the game which leads me to believe they'll continue strong tonight, finishing on a 24-4 run.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Wichita State is just 3-6 ATS on the road this year.

Note that Illinois State is a perfect 4-0 ATS this month, and 9-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite.

Pick Analysis

"Revenge" is a powerful motivator. Look for the Redbirds to take advantage of home court, and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night!

Posted Friday, February 15, 2013 08:42 PM

NHL: Free Play February 16th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 3:05 EST

TV: SunSports, FS-Florida, DTV

Vegas rotation #'s: 7 & 8

Market Conditions

Covers opening total = 5.5
Current Odds
LVH = 5.5
Pinnacle = 5.5
5 Dimes = 5.5

Situational Analysis

After starting the year 6-1, and averaging 5.3 GPG, Tampa Bay has been outscored 21-12 during an 0-5-1 slide. Martin St. Louis leads the team with 19 points: "We're all disappointed with where we're at, I feel like we wasted a good start," St. Louis. "But we're fighting here, we're trying to keep plugging away and finding answers. I don't think we got away from it, I just think we had a favorable schedule, playing teams on back-to-backs, backup goalies, tons of power plays that was clicking. So that helps getting your team off to a good start." A date vs. the Panthers is just what the doctor ordered as Tampa Bay has outscored them 21-10 during a five game win streak in the series.

Florida goaltender Jose Theodore has allowed a combined 10 goals in going 0-1-2 over his last three vs. the Lightning. Tampa Bay goaltender Mathieu Garon is expected to get the start here, and he's just 0-3-0 with a 4.07 GAA this month.

Statistical Analysis

Despite the recent slump, Tampa Bay still comes into this game as one of the highest scoring teams in the league, as the O/U is 9-3-1 thus far. However, it's coming off six straight losses, including identical 4-3 setbacks. Note that th... [More]

Posted Thursday, February 14, 2013 08:03 PM

NHL: Free Play February 15th

Boston is 8-1-2 and is coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Rangers on the 12th.

Tuukka Rask had 26 saves.

''We kind of dug ourselves a hole of our own doing, but at the same time you have to appreciate that we never gave up,'' Boston coach Claude Julien said after. ''I don't think we're going to get carried away thinking this was a great situation.''

Note though that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four vs. division opponents this year.

Buffalo is 5-8-1 and is coming a 2-0 loss at Ottawa on the 12th.

Goaltender Ryan Miller continues to be a bright spot though, and had 29 saves in the setback.

Note that Buffalo has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous contest.

These teams played on February 10th, and the Bruins would come away with the 3-1 victory. In fact, three of the last five in the series have gone "under" the posted number. I believe these divisional foes battle tough again, and would recommend a second look at the "under" in this one as well!

Posted Wednesday, February 13, 2013 08:17 PM

NHL: Free Play February 14th

Colorado is 4-6-1, and is coming off three straight losses, including a 3-2 setback in OT to Phoenix on the 11th.

''At the end of the day, it's a terrible bounce,'' said the Avs Matt Duchene. ''As soon as you see it happen, you kind of know it's going to go in. That doesn't happen very often. It's a tough bounce.''

The Avs had there chances though, and were simply unable to put the puck in the net, going 0 for 4 with the man advantage.

Note that Colorado has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four this year when playing against a team with a losing record.

Minnesota is 6-6-1, and is coming off a 2-1 setback at Vancouver on the 12th.

Devin Setoguchi scored the lone goal for Minnesota, snapping the Wilds two game win streak.

It was in fact just the seventh goal that the Wild have scored in their last six games.

Note that Minnesota has seen the total go "under" the number in four of five vs. teams with losing records.

I believe these offensively challenged clubs battle to a low-scoring affair on Thursday night!

Posted Tuesday, February 12, 2013 06:44 PM

NHL: Free Play February 13th

Ottawa is coming off a game vs. Buffalo just last night.

The last time the Sens played Pittsburgh, they lost 2-1 in front of the home town crowd on January 27th.

Note that Ottawa has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five road games where the total is 5.5.

Pittsburgh is 8-5, and is coming off back to back 3-1 losses, including vs. New Jersey on the 10th.

Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous game.

I don't think there's any need to overanalyze this pick. The Sens come into this game with "heavy legs", and these two Eastern conference foes once again battle to a lower-scoring affair!

Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 07:36 PM

NHL: Free Play February 12th

New York is 6-5 and is coming off back to back victories, including a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay on the 10th. The Rangers have scored a combined 9 goals over the modest two-game win streak.

The Rangers though are just 1-3-0 on the road this year, so will be looking for another big effort tonight:

"Boston is a tough building to play in, but I think this is the next step in restoring our identity, by playing well in a big road game," New York defenseman Michael Del Zotto said last night.

Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in three of four this year vs. teams with winning records.

Boston is 8-1-1, and is coming off three straight victories, including a 3-1 win at Buffalo on the 10th.

The Bruins are off to their best start in franchise history after Patrice Bergeron scored the go-ahead goal on the power-play in the third period:

"I think we've got to keep playing the way we've been playing," Bergeron assessed afterwards. "I think character has been key so far. We haven't had our best games every time and we've found ways to battle back and get back into the game and get the lead."

It's interesting to note that Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in its only game this year after a three game unbeaten streak.

These teams played each other two weeks ago and New York would escape with a 4-3 OT win. Whenever these Original Six teams get together, it's always a battle, and I believe all signs point t... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 06:37 PM

NHL: Free Play February 11th

Minnesota is 5-5-1, and is coming off a 2-1 OT win over Nashville on the 9th, a victory that snapped a three game slide in which the Wild scored a combined 3 goals.

The Wild though have lost four straight on the road.

It was Devin Setouguchi who scored with just 40 seconds left in the extra frame which was the difference vs. the Predators, and snapped a 10-game goal drought for him.

Note that Minnesota has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four this year vs. teams with losing records.

Calgary is 3-4-2, and is coming off a 5-1 loss at Vancouver on the 9th.

Goaltender Leland Irving will make his third start of the year in place of the injured Mikka Kiprusoff:

"Leland Irving kept us in the game. Without him, it would have been much worse than this," Flames' coach Bob Hartley assessed after the loss to the Canucks. "The bottom line is they outworked us. They wanted it more than us.

"We need to show urgency. We're not going to get any gifts from anyone."

Note that Calgary has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this year after allowing 4 goals or more.

Expect these two offensively challenged divisional opponents to battle each other tough, and look for this total to sneak below the posted number!

Posted Saturday, February 09, 2013 10:37 PM

NBA: Free Play February 10th

Oklahoma City is 38-12 SU and 30-18-2 ATS; it's coming off a 127-96 win over Phoenix on the 8th as a 14 point fav.

The win over the Suns was the finale of a three-game home stand.

Thabo Sefolosha scored 18 points in the win over the Suns.

Note though that Oklahoma City is in fact just 9-10 ATS this year after three or more consecutive victories.

Phoenix is 17-34 SU and 20-28-3 ATS; it's coming off back to back losses, including the lacklustre setback to the Thunder.

To say this is a "revenge game" would be an understatement as the Suns have lost nine straight in the series.

And to say the team is focused on atoning for that setback would be an understatement as well:

"Every loss is disheartening, but by that many points, that's embarrassing - that adds a little more," said Phoenix forward Michael Beasley afterwards. "That's where we want to be in the near future."

But it's interesting to note that Phoenix is 4-3 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games.

Behind a highly focused effort, I look for the home side to keep this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; grab the points!

Posted Friday, February 08, 2013 10:40 PM

NBA: Free Play February 9th

Denver is 32-18 SU and 30-20 ATS; it's coming off a 128-96 beatdown of Chicago as a 6 point fav on the 7th.

Kenneth Faried finished with 21 points and 12 boards.

Wilson Chandler had 24 points, connecting on all five of his 3-point shots.

''Wilson and Kenneth, what an incredible performance,'' Denver coach George Karl assessed afterwards. ''That's 45 points on 19 shots. I'll take that every night.''

Note that Denver is 10-7 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records.

Cleveland is 16-34 SU and is coming off a 119-108 win over Orlando last night.

Kyrie Irving had 24 points; Marreese Speights had 18; Tristan Thompson chipped in 16.

Note though that Cleveland is just 8-13 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year.

No need to overanalyse this selection; Cleveland comes into this game with "heavy legs", and the streaking Nuggets take full advantage, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Posted Thursday, February 07, 2013 11:05 PM

NBA: Free Play February 8th

Portland is 25-24 SU and 22-25-2 ATS; it's coming off a 105-99 loss at Dallas as a 5.5 point dog on the 6th.

The Rockets though have struggled vs. the Blazers so far this year, losing 95-85 at home on November 3rd, and 119-117 in Portland on November 16th.

LaMarcus Aldridge has been key to his team's success vs. Houston, averaging 28.0 points over those two contests, while Damian Lillard has averaged 23.5.

Nicolas Batum would explode for 35 in the second victory.

Note that Portland is 13-8 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record.

Houston is 27-24 SU and 27-23-1 ATS; it's coming off a 114-108 loss at Miami as a 7.5 point dog on the 6th.

James Harden would score 36 points, grab 12 boards and dish out seven assists, but it simply wasn't enough. And I believe this team suffers another letdown tonight.

Note that Houston is just 7-13 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more.

I believe this matchup continues to be a difficult one for the home side, and while the outright win is certainly not out of the question, I'll recommend grabbing the points in this situation!

Posted Thursday, February 07, 2013 07:05 AM

NHL: Free Play January 7th

The Isles are 4-4-1 and are coming off back to back losses, including a 4-2 setback to Pittsburgh on the 5th.

It's interesting to note that the Isles are just 1-3 (-1.6 units) after allowing 4 goals or more this year.

The Rangers are 4-5 and are coming off a lacklustre 3-1 setback at New Jersey on the 5th.

Note though that the Rangers are 2-1 (+1.1 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous contest this year.

So where's the value in this one?

Both teams have been struggling of late, but the home side has a big opportunity to return to form against a club that it's enjoyed plenty of success against, going 10-3-1 in the last 14 in this series. The Rangers have in fact taken the last seven in front of the home town crowd, winning by a combined 31-10.

Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist started six of those games, posting a 1.32 GAA, and three shutouts.

And that doesn't bode well for the Isles, who were 0 for 7 with the man advantage in each of their last two outings.

Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case, I absolutely have no problem in recommending to lay the steeper price!

Posted Tuesday, February 05, 2013 09:27 PM

NBA: Free Play February 6th

New York is 31-15 SU and 25-20-1 ATS; it's coming off a 99-85 win over Detroit as a 10 point fav on the 4th.

It's interesting to note thought that New York is just 1-4 ATS this year as a road fav of 3.5 to 6 points this season.

Washington is 12-35 SU and 28-17-2 ATS; it's coming off a 98-90 win over the Clippers as a 3 point underdog on the 4th.

Not only is Washington 14-9 ATS in front of the home town crowd, but it's also 10-6 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per contest.

To say this is a "revenge game" would be a bit of an understatement as Washington has lost ten straight in the series.

The Wizards have won six of seven at home though, and I believe have the firepower to catch the complacent Knicks off guard; consider a second look at the home side in this one!

Posted Tuesday, February 05, 2013 02:03 AM

NBA: Free Play February 5th

Golden State is 30-17 SU and 27-19-1 ATS; it's coming off a 113-93 win over Phoenix as a 10.5 point fav on the 2nd.

As good as the Warriors have been playing of late, take note that they haven't won in Houston in over five years.

Stephen Curry would lead the charge vs. the Suns, scoring 29; Andrew Bogut contributed 11 points, seven boards and three blocks.

It's interesting to note though that Golden State is 0-3 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest.

Houston is 26-23 SU and 25-23-1 ATS; it's coming off a 109-95 win over Charlotte as a 12 point fav on the 2nd.

The Rockets have won five of seven, including four of five, while averaging 112.6 points in the process.

James Harden continues his strong season, finishing with 21 points, 11 boards and 11 assists; Chandler Parsons and Patrick Patterson finished with 24 apiece.

The Rockets would use their size down low, outscoring the Bobcats 58-32 in the paint, while also winning the rebound battle 50-35.

And note that not only is Houston 15-9 ATS at home this year, but it's also 4-2 ATS as a home fav of 3 points or less.

With a tough game on the road in Oklahoma City tomorrow night, I believe the Warriors get caught looking ahead to that contest, and the Rockets continues their strong push in front of the home town crowd!

Posted Sunday, February 03, 2013 09:26 AM

NHL: Free Play February 3rd

New Jersey is coming off a 5-1 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday.

The Devils have lost four straight, giving up 15 goals during the slide.

And that doesn't bode well vs. this Islanders team which is averaging 3.86 GPG.

Note that New Jersey is already 0-3 (-3.1 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

New York is 4-2-1 and is coming off a 5-4 OT win over New Jersey on the 31st.

It was the successful end to an overall 3-1-1 road trip.

It's been the power-play which has been the difference, converting on 37.5% of its chances.

And special teams have been equally adept at shutting down the man advantage, failing just once in 25 short-handed situations.

It's interesting to note that New York is 3-1 (+2.9 units) after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous game.

No need to overanalyze this play. These teams are moving in opposite directions, and I believe the Islanders take full advantage of this tired Devils side, finding a way to get the job done at the end of the day!