The_Dragon's Blog

Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 02:35 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 18th

Time of Pick: 8:05 ET

TV: Altitude, CSN-Chicago+, DTV: 666, 681, 760, 761

Vegas rotation #'s: 513, 514

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +2.5
Current Odds: +2.5
Betonline: +2.5
Pinnacle: +2.5
5 Dimes: +2.5

Situational Analysis
 
Denver is coming off an 87-80 home win over Memphis on Friday. The Nuggets have won 11 straight, but with a tough game tomorrow night in Oklahoma City, I simply can't see how the they won't be caught looking ahead to that one.

Chicago is coming off a momentum building 113-95 win at Golden State on Friday. It snapped a two-game slide.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Denver is 45-22 overall, but just 15-19 SU away from friendly confines.

Note that Chicago is 36-29 SU overall, and 18-14 in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Chicago Bulls. These teams played on February 7th, and the Nuggets would win 128-96 in Denver, making the "revenge factor" a significant angle tonight. I believe there are overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side to warrant it a second look in this matchup.

Good luck, David

Posted Saturday, March 16, 2013 04:39 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 17th

Time of Pick: 7:05 ET

TV: FS-New Orleans, North, DTV: 668, 678, 755, 756

Vegas rotation #'s: 877, 878

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: 186.5
Current Odds: 186.5
Betonline: 186.5
Pinnacle: 186.5
5 Dimes: 186.5

Situational Analysis
 
New Orleans is coming off a 96-87 loss at Washington on Friday. Eric Gordon led the way with 20 points.

Minnesota is coming off a 108-100 setback at Houston on Friday. The Wolves were held to only 17 field goals after the break, as the team continues to deal with a rash of injuries. Minnesota's defense was a bright spot though, holding the league's highest scoring team to just 39 first half points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that New Orleans is 22-44 SU overall, but just 10-24 on the road. And note that the Hornets host Golden State tomorrow night.

Note that Minnesota 22-31 SU overall, and 15-16 in front of the home town crowd. And note that the Wolves are in Memphis tomorrow night.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the "under" New Orleans/Minnesota. These teams have played each other three times this year. Minnesota won 113-102 in New Orleans on December 14th. New Orleans won 104-92 at home on January 11th. The Wolves won 115-86 in Minnesota on February 2nd. All three games went "over" the posted number. However, because of the "situation" each team finds itself in coming into this contest, I believe this strong trend finally gets bucked ... [More]