The_Dragon's Blog

NCAAB: Free Play February 18th

By The_Dragon | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 09:52 PM   0 comments
Title of Pick: David Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 9:00 EST

TV: ESPN, DTV: 206

Vegas rotation #'s: 709, 710

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: +10.5
Current Odds: +10.5
LVH: +10.5
Pinnacle: +10.5
5 Dimes: +10.5

Situational Analysis

This is a "revenge game" for the Mountaineers after they lost 65-64 to Kansas State on January 12th.

WVU comes into this game with plenty of momentum as well after beating Texas Tech 66-64 on February 16th. Deniz Kilicli had 25 points. Eron Harris chipped in 15. It was the third sweep of a Big 12 team in WVU's inaugural season after coming over from the Big East. WVU was sharp in the second half, shooting almost 59% from the floor.

The Wildcats are coming off an 81-61 win over Baylor on the 16th. Angel Rodriguez had 22 points; Shane Southwell added 18 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that West Virginia is 7-6 ATS vs. conference opponents this year, and 3-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

Note that Kansas State is just 1-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, and just 3-4 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free-play on West Virginia. I believe these teams are very evenly matched, and believe the obvious "revenge factor" can not be overlooked. While I won't call for an outright victory, I do believe that WVU keeps this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe!

Good luck, David.
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