The_Dragon's Blog

NCAAB: Free Play February 20th

By The_Dragon | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, February 19, 2013 10:49 PM   0 comments
Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN Full Court, DTV: 723

Vegas rotation #'s: 801, 802

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: 2
Current Odds: 2
Betonline: 2
Pinnacle: 2
5 Dimes: 2

Situational Analysis

This is a revenge game for Morehead State after it lost 66-60 to the Racers on January 18th, 2012.

Murray State is coming off a 79-70 setback at Eastern Illinois on the 16th. Stacy Wilson had 20 points. Dexter Fields added 14. Isaiah Canaan added 12. Jeffrey Moss chipped in 11.

Morehead State is coming off a 65-63 win over Tennesse Tech last time out. Chad Posthumus finished with 13 points. Angelo Warner finished with 12.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Murray State is just 4-6 ATS on the road this year, and 2-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.

It's interesting to note that Morehead State is just 27-20 ATS in its last 47 following a conference game.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Morehead State. It's Senior Night at Morehead State, the final game of its home portion of its 2012-13 schedule. This is in fact a double revenge situation for the home side. In last year's setback the Eagles actually held the lead with four minutes left when the Racers were 18-0 and ranked nationally. These teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by the oddsmakers. The difference is the significant external motivating factors working in favor of the home side!
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