The_Dragon's Blog

NCAAB: Free Play February 25th

By The_Dragon | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, February 24, 2013 07:04 PM   0 comments
Title of Pick: Chan's Free Pick

Time of Pick: 7:00 ET

TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208

Vegas rotation #'s: 711, 712

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -19.5
Current Odds: -19.5
LVH: -19.5
Pinnacle: -19.5
5 Dimes: -19.5

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech is just 1-6 SU on the road. The Red Raiders have in fact lost eight in a row overall. Most recently they got hammered 86-66 at Iowa State on Saturday.

Is a big game for the home side as it's in a tight battle for its first ever Big 12 title. Most recently the Wildcats beat Texas 81-69 on Saturday. Rodney McGruder had 20 points, and four players would go on to score in double figures.

Statistical Analysis

Not only is Texas Tech just 4-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, but it's also just 5-9 ATS vs. conference opponents, and 6-11 ATS as an underdog this season.

Note that Kansas State is 10-7 ATS this season as a favorite. It's also 8-6 ATS vs. conference opponents, and 8-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Kansas State. These teams played on February 5th, and Kansas State would go on to win 68-59 at Texas Tech. It was not able to cover the 11 point spread. I believe K-State's clear home court advantage (15-1 SU so far this year), and it's sheer determination turns out to be the difference in the end today though, and expect the Wildcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Good luck, David
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