Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 9:00 ET

TV: ESPN Full Court, DTV: 721

Vegas rotation #'s: 627, 628

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -9.5
Current Odds: -9.5
Betonline: -9.5
Pinnacle: -9.5
5 Dimes: -9.5

Situational Analysis

UT Arlington is 17-11 overall, and 10-4 on the road. It's coming off a lacklustre 84-55 loss at Denver on March 7th.

New Mexico State is 20-10 overall and a near perfect 14-1 at home this season. It's coming off a 78-60 win over Louisiana Tech on March 7th. Daniel Mullings led the way with 23 points. Tyrone Watson had 12 points and 11 boards.

Statistical Analysis

The lone bright spot in UT Arlington's last game was Karol Gruszecki, who had 16 points and five boards.

Note that New Mexico State shot 55 percent from the floor vs. LA Tech, en route to clinching the No. 3 tournament seed.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on New Mexico State. When these teams battled each other last, the Mavericks would come away with the 68-47 win back on December 29th, 2012. But that was then, and this is now. And now is senior night in New Mexico State. I believe the home side turns up the heat as it prepares for a tournament run, builds off its last victory, and uses the earlier loss to UT Arlington as the motivation to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Good luck, David