The_Dragon's Blog

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 23rd

By The_Dragon | View all Posts
Posted Friday, March 22, 2013 04:12 PM   0 comments
Time of Pick: 8:00 ET


Vegas rotation #'s: 543, 544

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -12.5
Current Odds: -12.5
Betonline: -12.5
Pinnacle: -12.5
5 Dimes: -12.5

Situational Analysis
Illinois Chicago is coming off an 80-69 win over Chicago State in the CIT on March 20th. Daniel Barnes had 22 points.

Northern Iowa is coming off a 77-66 win over North Dakota on the 20th. Anthony James had 24 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Illinois Chicago has struggled in every other arena for bettors this year, other than its own, going just 5-8 ATS in road contests.

Note that Northern Iowa is 5-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on Northern Iowa. I simply can't understate how important being able to play on their home floor will be for the Panthers in the second round of the Tournament tonight. UNI is 14-3 at home this year, and one more victory would set the single-season record for home wins. UIC on the other hand earned its first ever postseason victory last time out. Experience and familiar surroundings tip the scales in favor of the home side in this one; consider laying the points!

Good luck, David
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