The_Dragon's Blog

Posted Monday, March 18, 2013 04:45 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 19th

Time of Pick: 7:35 ET

TV: MSG-Buffalo, TSN, RDS, DTV: 638, 776

Vegas rotation #'s:

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -176
Current Odds: -176
Betonline: -176
Pinnacle: -176
5 Dimes: -176

Situational Analysis
 
Buffalo has lost two straight, including a 5-3 loss at Washington on Sunday.

Montreal has won five straight, most recently a 2-1 win at New Jersey on Saturday.

These two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Buffalo is 10-15-4 overall, and just 5-9-2 on the road.

Note that Montreal is 19-5-4 overall, and 9-3-2 at home.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Montreal Canadiens. I believe the Habs are worth the price in this matchup. These teams have played twice this season, with each winning on its home ice. This trend continues here, as the red-hot Habs deliver the goods in front of the home town crowd by taking advantage of a Sabres side which is struggling in every facet of the game right now; lay the price!

Good luck, David

Posted Friday, March 15, 2013 06:02 PM

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play: Mar 16th

Time of Pick: 8:05 ET

TV: FS-Prime Ticket, Midwest, DTV: 671, 693, 782, 783

Vegas rotation #'s: 21, 22

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: +105
Current Odds:
Betonline:
Pinnacle:
5 Dimes:

Situational Analysis
 
These teams have played twice this year. Anaheim won 6-5 in St. Louis on February 9th, and 4-2 at home on March 10th.

Anaheim is coming off a 2-1 shootout win at Dallas on Thursday. Goaltender Jonas Hiller is 7-0-1 in his last eight outings: ''If you're fighting hard and doing the right things, things will go your way,'' said Hiller after the win.

St. Louis is coming off a 3-0 win over Phoenix on Thursday. Jake Allen made 29 saves. Chris Stewart had two goals and an assist.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Anaheim is 20-3-3 overall, and 9-2-3 on the road.

Note that St. Louis is 15-10-2 overall, and 7-5-1 at home.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim is 7-0-2 in its last nine, and is an amazing 11-2-1 when its opponent scores first. For me this one comes down to goaltending though; great value on Hiller in this matchup. Consider a second look at the red hot Anaheim Ducks tonight!

Good luck, David

Posted Wednesday, March 06, 2013 06:53 PM

NHL: Free Play March 7th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:35 ET

TV: SNET-West, FS-Detroit, DTV: 663

Vegas rotation #'s: 67, 68

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -170
Current Odds: -170
Bookmaker: -170
Pinnacle: -162
5 Dimes: -170

Situational Analysis

Edmonton is just 4-5-3 on the road this year, and is coming off a 4-3 OT loss at Columbus on Tuesday. It was the Oilers third loss in a row.

Detroit is 8-4-2 at home, and is coming off a 2-1 win over Colorado on Tuesday. Goaltender Jimmy Howard was brilliant, stopping 36 shots. Niklas Kronwall and Johan Franzen potted the goals.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Edmonton is 0-3 this year after playing three consecutive road games.

Note that Detroit has won four of the last five in this series, including a 2-1 victory at home on February 9th.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Detroit Red Wings. Simply a tough spot for the Oilers, who must turn around and hit the road for a game the following night in Nashville, before heading to undefeated Chicago on Sunday. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case, I have no problem in recommending a second look at the home side in this one!

Good luck, David

Posted Tuesday, March 05, 2013 06:04 PM

NHL: Free Play March 6th

Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 7:05 ET

TV: RDS, TSN, DTV: 769

Vegas rotation #'s: 1, 2

Market Conditions

Covers opening line: -155
Current Odds: -155
Bookmaker: -155
Pinnacle: -155
5 Dimes: -155

Situational Analysis

Ottawa is coming off a 3-2 OT loss at the Islanders on Sunday. It was the third straight loss, and the Sens are struggling to put the biscuit in the basket.

Toronto is coming off a 4-2 win over New Jersey on Monday. Goaltender James Reimer has won two in a row. Reimer is a near perfect 5-1-1 with a 1.70 GAA vs. the Sens in his career.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Ottawa is 12-7-4 overall, but just 3-6-2 on the road. It's scored just four total goals to go 0-1-2 to start a five-game trip.

Note that Toronto is 4-1-0 in its last five in front of the home town crowd. The Leafs have scored at least four goals in the past three wins. Nazem Kadri has four goals and five assists during a five-game streak.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the Toronto Maple Leafs. These teams have split two meetings this year. The Leafs won 3-0 at home on February 16th, before the Sens would return the favor in a 3-2 victory in Ottawa a week later. I believe this home ice advantage trend continues tonight, and that Toronto continues its excellent play of late. Consider laying the price!

Good luck, David