The_Dragon's Blog

NHL: Free Play February 24th

By The_Dragon | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, February 23, 2013 08:01 PM   0 comments
Title of Pick: Chan's Free Play

Time of Pick: 5:05 ET

TV: TSN-Jets, MSG+, DTV: 635, 770

Vegas rotation #'s: 3, 4

Market Conditions

Covers opening total: -170
Current Odds: -170
LVH: -170
Pinnacle: -170
5 Dimes: -170

Situational Analysis

Winnipeg's achilles heel has always been its play on the road, and it's had an especially difficult time whenever playing in New Jersey, having dropped five straight in this series on the road. Most recently the Jets are coming off 5-3 loss at Philadelphia yesterday.

The Devils are 6-1-2 at home this year. After losing 5-1 to the Capitals on Saturday, venerable goaltender Martin Brodeur is expected back between the pipes. Brodeur is 5-1-1 with a 1.84 GAA over his last seven outings, and has posted a minuscule 1.57 GAA in winning his last five starts vs. the Jets franchise.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Winnipeg is just 3-5 (-1.2 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.

Note that New Jersey is 4-2 (+1.8 units) when playing against a team with a losing record.

Pick Analysis

This is a 1* free play on the New Jersey Devils. The Jets are mired in an 0 for 21 slump on the power-play right now. Their penalty kill has been equally as inept of late, allowing three goals on six opportunities in the loss to the Flyers. I believe the home side takes full advantage of this tired Winnipeg team. Lay the price!
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