Posted Sunday, January 31, 2010 09:57 AM
Record: 39-25
Portland -5.5 ($1,650 to win $1,500)
I have a theory I have used for close to 20 years in CBB and it's has done really well for me. When a bad team plays its biggest game of the year on national TV, suffers a heartbreaking defeat in that game and then returns to play a home game a couple of days later, go against that team. My reasoning is obvious but profitable. The bad team expends all of its energy for the huge TV game and isn't mentally prepared to play its next opponent. Anyone who saw Santa Clara play Gonzaga on Thursday knows what I mean. The Broncs led virtually the entire game until Gonzaga closed on a 20-4 run to steal a victory. Up until about 3:00 left in that game it looked like the Broncs would pull the huge upset and the fans would storm the court but Santa Clara let the game slip away as quickly as any lead I've seen in a while.
The Gonzaga game is everything to that school. To beat Gonzaga on ESPN was their Super Bowl. In my opinion, there is no way those kids will be there Saturday night against Portland. Not only the players but the fans as well. That gym will be dead. That's why part of the theory is the losing team playing again at home. The entire school is numb from that loss so being back at home is tougher than going on the road in my opinion. Also, this is a young Santa Clara team so I think it hurts even more. The Broncs left everything they had on the court Thursday nigh... [More]