TimTowner's Blog

Posted Wednesday, October 12, 2011 11:25 PM

Auburn cleared on 13-month NCAA investigation

As an Auburn fan, I was worried about Auburn having to vacate wins and even the Heisman that Cam Newton won.  But just a few hours ago, Yahoo news released that the NCAA has concluded their investigation on Auburn after 13 months and cleared them.

Whew!



Posted Tuesday, September 22, 2009 01:46 PM

Possible ASU/Georgia handicapping info

Some of you, like me, do think teams travelling from Pacific time to Eastern and vice versa affects a team's performance if they are not prepared.

I'm at ASU now and I just read the schools paper.  The ASU football team will be leaving on Thursday, instead of Friday, just to prepare for the 3-hour time difference for the game against Georgia.

Dennis Erickson says, "I just wanted them to get settled down and get a chance to think about what's going on."

He also said junior kicker Thomas Weber will have an MRI and his status for the game is questionable.  He did miss the ULM game last weekend as well.



Posted Thursday, September 17, 2009 08:17 AM

Should You Buy The Half-Point?

Here are the percentages of games that end on key lined numbers in the NFL for a PUSH.  This should help you to determine if you should buy the "hook" or not.

1 - 2.50%
2 - 1.98%
3 - 9.79%
4 - 3.00%
5 - 1.68%
6 - 3.40%
7 - 5.72%
8 - 2.14%
9 - 0.90%
10 - 4.91%
11 - 2.22%
12 - 0.44%
13 - 1.30%
14 - 4.90%
15 - 1.46%
16 - 3.48%
17 - 4.55%
18 - 2.33%

As you can see, the line of +/- 3 results in a PUSH about 10% of the time (1 out of every 10 bets) which has the highest PUSH rate.

The number 7 is at just under a 6% PUSH rate and the numbers 10, 14 and 17 are almost at a 5% rate.

Buying a half-point to 3 or off of 3 seem to be the best plan, depending on juice, since it hits about 1 out of every 10 games that are lined at 3.

Most of the other higher percentage numbers only hit about 1 out of 20 games.

This also shows that when the Books line a game at 3, it tends to be a close game.


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User: TimTowner
Joined: September 2009
Location: Arizona
Team: Chicago Bears
Occupation: Arts/Entertainment

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