Timmy_the_Greek's Blog

Week 5 - Bears @ Jags

By Timmy_the_Greek | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, October 06, 2012 01:58 PM   0 comments

The Take:

If Jax couldn’t get their passing attack going against a Cincy secondary with its top 4 CBs either out or hampered by injury, it probably isn’t happening against this Chicago defense that did such a good job against the high-powered Dallas and GB offenses.  Taking the road favorite is the square play here, but I think there are good reasons for it.  The Jags don’t throw the ball downfield (Gabbert’s 4.6 net yds/attempt is among the lowest in the NFL) and don’t protect the Gabbert very well (allowed 6 sacks and 7 hits to the Bengals last week).  The Jags are tied for the 2nd fewest number of red zone trips thru 4 games, and will be facing one of the league’s best red zone defenses (10 rz trips allowed, 6 rz scores allowed are among the lowest in the nfl thru 4 games).  The Jags only managed 69 rushing yards last week against one of the worst rush defenses in the AFC.  The Chicago defense forces offenses to put together long drives in order to score, and Jax just does not have the weapons to do so.  Their big free agent signing, WR Laurent Robinson, is not expected to play this weekend.


Meanwhile, the Chicago offense was more solid and consistent on Monday night, facing a much better defense than they will face on Sunday.  The Jags lack the pass rushers to really give Chicago problems and are once again without one of their defensive stalwarts, LB Daryl Smith. 


Certainly this is not the best spot for Chicago, going on the road following a SU win as a road dog on MNF, but Jax doesn’t have much of a home field advantage.  I would expect a lot of Bears fans on Sunday (they are reportedly removing some tarps to provide additional seating, and I doubt it’s for an influx of Jaguar fans after last week’s home loss).  Also consider the Bears are 6-0 on the road off a Monday nighter since 2004.  I’ll lay the points.


Chicago -5.5 play  

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User: Timmy_the_Greek
Joined: September 2009

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