The Take:
If Jax couldn’t get their passing attack going against a
Cincy secondary with its top 4 CBs either out or hampered by injury, it
probably isn’t happening against this Chicago defense that did such a good job
against the high-powered Dallas and GB offenses. Taking the road favorite is the square play
here, but I think there are good reasons for it. The Jags don’t throw the ball downfield
(Gabbert’s 4.6 net yds/attempt is among the lowest in the NFL) and don’t protect
the Gabbert very well (allowed 6 sacks and 7 hits to the Bengals last
week). The Jags are tied for the 2nd
fewest number of red zone trips thru 4 games, and will be facing one of the
league’s best red zone defenses (10 rz trips allowed, 6 rz scores allowed are
among the lowest in the nfl thru 4 games).
The Jags only managed 69 rushing yards last week against one of the worst
rush defenses in the AFC. The Chicago defense
forces offenses to put together long drives in order to score, and Jax just
does not have the weapons to do so. Their
big free agent signing, WR Laurent Robinson, is not expected to play this
weekend.
Meanwhile, the Chicago offense was more solid and consistent
on Monday night, facing a much better defense than they will face on
Sunday. The Jags lack the pass rushers
to really give Chicago problems and are once again without one of their
defensive stalwarts, LB Daryl Smith.
Certainly this is not the best spot for Chicago, going on the
road following a SU win as a road dog on MNF, but Jax doesn’t have much of a
home field advantage. I would expect a
lot of Bears fans on Sunday (they are reportedly removing some tarps to provide
additional seating, and I doubt it’s for an influx of Jaguar fans after last
week’s home loss). Also consider the
Bears are 6-0 on the road off a Monday nighter since 2004. I’ll lay the points.
Chicago -5.5 play
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