TomE's Blog

Posted Tuesday, November 06, 2012 03:36 PM

NFL Week 10

First off, there's something I have to get off my chest, a therapeutic rant if you will. The target of my rant is.....ME!
Week 9 was my first posting of the season, and my head was clear to start, picking SD, Balt, Pit, Dal, NO (4-1). My week wasn't the worst, adding 6.35 units to my roll. However, my week 9 ended on a doubly-sour note which has me feeling like a stupid fuking moron and a loser. First off, I did my picks early in the week, late Mon and early Tues which usually works well for me.  I have a fresh perspective of what is, unpolluted by thinking too much on what is actually quite simple. Perhaps from winner's euphoria or too much time on my hands, I spent way too much time thinking about the games after that, all week long, and even committed a cardinal sin, which was to change a pick. I ignored the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) and over-thought the matchups. I had already learned in the past that changing a pick is a bad thing. For me, it results in way more losers than winners and the obvious truth is that if one first picks one way, and then changes to the other side, the  fact is that there is clear confusion which should be respected. The correct play then is to PASS (or leave the original pick alone). Show some damn discipline for Pete's sake! I changed my pick from N.O. to Phil.-  LOSER!

I added a pick I had already rejected early in the week: Cin. - LOSER!

Part 2 of my stupidity is this. I had great discipline to start... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 30, 2012 03:21 PM

NFL Week 9

S.D. -7.5
S.D. needs this game badly. Who better to pound than their personal doormat team, the Chiefs? S.D. has problems, but K.C. has just way more too many to even list, from the Coach on down. (I'm not a fan of coaches who can't delegate...ie Def Cord and HC - too much too handle). I think S.D. gets a feel-good win here.

Balt -3 1/2
Normally, I shy away from going against the HD divison rival, but Balt is coming off their bye and total embarrassment at the hands of Hou. Cleve, in spite of their feel-good win over S.D., is a crap team and Balt will show what's what in this game.

Pit +3
I have a rule about Pit. If you can have them getting points, take the points. The bonus is that NYG are due for a let-down after their big win in Dal, and they typically don't perform well as a favorite at home. Also, NYG have a comfortable lead in their division, there is no sense of urgency for this game unlike Pit who can't afford to drop another game back of Balt.

Dal +4
I went against Dal vs the NYG because I know Dal is an underachiever at home and it also seems that the bigger the game, the bigger the choke. Conversely, they are a great value on the road as an underdog. They play better on the road and here's a game they need badly. Atlanta is a good team but not a great team (look at the quality of their opponents so far). They will want to win this, but they won't need to win. I look for Dal to make a game of this contest so I'll be happy with the p... [More]

Posted Wednesday, January 04, 2012 02:55 PM

NFL WILD CARD ROUND

Part 1
To begin, I would like to take a stroll down memory lane and take a peek at the past 5 wild card rounds, to get a feel and flavor for the type of action (dogs, favs, home, road) we can anticipate.
2010
NO   36    NO -10      
Sea  41                         home dog
NYJ  17
Indy  16    Indy -2           road dog
Balt  30
KC     7     Balf -3           road fav
GB   21
Phil  16     Phil -1.5         road dog       home 1-3,    fav 1-3
2009
NYJ   24    Jets -2.5      
Cin    14                         road fav
Phil   14
Dal    34     Dal -4            home fav
Balt   33
NE    14     NE  -3        &nb... [More]

Posted Wednesday, December 28, 2011 03:23 PM

Final games NFL reg season - ideas and leans

In this final week of the reg season, I will be looking at match ups which have huge import regarding the playoffs, and games in which the playoff team has little to play  vs the team playing their final game of the season and approaching their season finale as their own personal Super Bowl.

SF -10.5 @ SL. SF dominated SL earlier to the tune of a 26-0 shutout. SF is 11-3 ATS overall and 8-2 ATS as a fav. SL is 2-12 ATS overall and 2-10 as a dog.  I like SF to take care of business in this mismatch and clinch #2 seed. I know SL will play their best in this season finale but honestly, they don't have what it takes to beat a motivated SF team which has been pretty darn good on the road as well. I give SF a pass for losing @ Ari after SF clinched their division and losing @ Balt on 3 days rest.

Det -3.5  @ GB.  GB has HFA and should be resting starters as early as possible in this game with nothing to gain by playing for a win. Det needs this game to clinch #5 seed. I don't think Det would want Atl to take over the #5 seed as if I am not mistaken, the #6 seed would have to go to NO and that would be terrible for the road team. NO is 4-0 all by blowouts at home in Prime Time games. Det already was beat convincingly in NO in a Prime Time game this season, as was Atl MN.  I think it would be much better for Det to have to play @NYG or Dal. I like Det -3.5  with something to play for vs GB with nothing to play for.

Car @ NO -9. ... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 25, 2011 02:05 PM

XMAS NFL

Chi     +18
Under 47.5
NO  -.5          3 team teaser 1 unit to win 1.8 units

1st Q
GB -3 -115      1 unit

With 1st Seed at stake, I expect GB to play fired up out of the gate
and coming off their loss @ KC, I also think they'll be particularly motivated early. Later in the game, I can see them going into kill the clock mode and sitting starters. It's going to be cold, and I don't see Chi suddenly being effective putting points on the board, so it looks to me that Unders is also a reasonable idea, hence my teaser.

BOL


Posted Friday, December 23, 2011 08:14 PM

NFL Saturday

Narrowed my card down to:
Balt -12
SD +2
Sea +1
Phil +1
Lean - NYG

Balt -   Cleve has been dominated by Balt for quite awhile. I like that Balt was humiliated last SN and so I think they come into this game with some attitude. Thanks to some help: Pit losing @ SF, Hou losing @ Indy.....Balt is now front-runner for the #2 seed and has plenty of motivation.

SD -      SD red hot of late and in Dec bring their win rate to 25-2. I know Det is playing to clinch a playoff spot, but they do have some cushion tied with Atl @ 9-5 leading the rest of the wild card chasers who are 7-7. SD can't hold anything back for this contest due to the fact that if they lose, that's their season and so, it's a MUST WIN game. While SD has been playing dominating FB their last 3 games, Det is coming in with 2 less than impressive wins: 34-28 over Min, 28-27 over Oak.

Sea -       SF off their "statement" game win over Pit MN and now follow as a road fav vs a hot Sea team sporting some decent trends too: 8-2 ATS against conf., 3-1 ATS vs team with winning record, 8-3 as a dog, 6-2 on turf. The key IMO is that although SF is hunting the #2 seed, they are on the short week, off a big emotional win, playing a Sea team that is MUST WIN or done, and biggest factor of all, playing in Sea where the fan noise is a big handicap for the visitors.

Phil -        Dal needs... [More]

Posted Tuesday, December 20, 2011 02:14 AM

Thurs Nt Prime Time : Houston @ Colts

I just bet Hou -5.5 for 1 unit now for the Thurs Nt. Prime Time match up.
I'm thinking that once people get over their hang-over with the Pit loss MN or their celebrating the SF win...they are going to figure out the following and bet this line up. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe there will be support for the Colts, but consider the following:

The backdrop for this game:
NE   11-3                      1st seed
Hou  10-4    8-2 conf      2nd seed
Balt  10-4    7-3 conf
Pit    10-4    8-3 conf

Balt is ahead of Pit in their division because of the div record.
However, for the 2nd seed in the AFC playoffs, Hou is ahead of both of them due to the better conf record.
Hou has everything to play for with 2 games left to earn #2 seed!

SF had a let down @ Ari after clinching their division. A real stinker game yet they came back with a vengeance and beat Pit at home.

Hou had a let down vs Car after clinching their division, a real stinker game too - embarrassing really - seemingly blowing their chance to maintain their lead for 2nd seed. Now, thanks to Balt and Pit both losing, they have a reprieve and another chance to take care of business. I expect they are collectively and absolutely thrilled for this opportunity.

Earning a bye in the wild c... [More]

Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 09:31 AM

MNF Steelers @ Niners. Opinions Welcome

Survived yesterday's Dog Sunday winning with SD to exactly break even on units won/lost for this NFL weekend up to tonight.
My prime time steak is still alive. Since last SN, my Prime Time streak is a perfect 5-0 going into tonight:  NYG @ Dal- W, SL @ Sea - W, Jack @ Atl - W, Dal @ TB - W, Balt @ SD - W
Tonight's match up is really tough as there can be a strong case made for either side. Both are 10-3, but SF is 10-3 ATS while Pit is 6-7 ATS...and let's face it - what matters more to bettors, SU or ATS? Also, Pit is 2-4 ATS on the road, SF stellar at home. Trend edge to the Niners.
If QBs healthy, I would choose Big Ben over Smith all day long. However, even though I expect Rothlisberger to play (which personally I don't think is wise)...I believe he will be vulnerable due to an obvious lack of mobility. Also, 37YO Batch is a downgrade at QB should Big Ben sit out. I don't believe I can say either side has an edge here which on one level sounds preposterous...but that statement simply betrays my distrust of QB Smith. In some ways, I think it's good he's coming off a poor performance, because I can see that should make him better prepared and focused for tonight.

SF is coming off a loss, and Pit is coming off a win which I believe favors SF from a motivational point of view. The team coming off a loss has more to prove to themselves and I believe will play with more intensity.

In terms of Playoff Motivation, I see this as a toss up. Both teams hav... [More]

Posted Friday, December 16, 2011 02:40 PM

MERRY XMAS 5 Team Teaser

This is my favorite time of year from an NFL handicapping point of view.
"Playoff Factor" winning picks seems to stand out without a great deal of effort. However, I did put a fair amount of brain-power into these match ups. At no other time of the year does Motivation stand out so clearly. Each of these picks is a mismatch to various degrees, and chopping off or adding 6 points to the lines have me loving this teaser big-time. I only chose a 6 pt teaser: A) to give myself the best payoff odds B) I'm pretty much only asking my teams to win, adding another 1/2 point or a couple more only reduces the payoff and shouldn't really make much difference in the lines anyway....

Dal -1
Cin -1/2
NO -1
Hou Pk
Jets +9    1 unit to win 4.48 units

Don't ask me how it worked out to 4.48 to 1, I bet an uneven amount and this is what it divided out to...screwy odds.

Each pick has a huge motivational factor to make the playoffs going for the picked side.

A commentary on each:

Dal  - This game is a mismatch. Dal:PF/PA 24.1/21.6, TB 17.8/21.5. A winning team vs a losing team. A MUST WIN for Dal vs a crap TB team. However (and that's why this pick is on a teaser), Dal is not necessarily likely to convert that mismatch edge to a point spread cover.  Dal: 1-7 ATS vs conference opponents this season. 1-5 vs teams with losing records. Their MO seems to involve choking, making terrible mistakes with the game on the line, and p... [More]

Posted Friday, October 21, 2011 07:37 PM

TomE Week 7 Final Card

Been studying this all week and turning the match ups around in my head over and over. Unfortunately(shhh), I am going away this weekend to visit with friends for a birthday celebration,
so I had to make the rest of my final plays today for Sunday morning and afternoon games. I'll be back in time to see how I'm going to deal with the SN and MN games (leaning Indy plus all those points and I definitely like Balt).

Anyway:
Jets +3  last Mon Nt.
Wa +12
Dal -1.5
GB +2
NO -4
Balt +2.5  6 team 10 pt teaser (+135)  1 unit

GB -1.5
Balt -1.5   6pt teaser (-110)   2 units   locked in earlier this week

SD +9
Ten +7
Oak +5.5    3 team 10 pt teaser (-130)  1 unit

TB +1      1 unit

Wa @ Car   I'm not too enthused about this any more but I do think Beck will make the most of his opportunity and can't be worse than Rexy last week. I can't see Car blowing out anyone so I feel OK about my 12 points. Wa on paper sports a decent defense and Car is a work in progress...

Dal vs SL  What can I say? A good team coming off a loss vs a shit team struggling for answers. 325 ypg passing for Dal and 240 ypg pass defense for SL is a mismatch. SL gifting 163 ypg rushing to opponents bodes well for Dal struggling run game of 85 ypg. Dallas gives up only 70 ypg rushing so I think SL is in for a looooong day. Dal on my teaser is just... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 17, 2011 03:07 PM

TomE NFL Week 2

Hey there. I've been an NFL junkie for years, but only found this site late last NFL season. Decided to become a member this year and thought I would take the plunge and make myself a participant rather than a watcher.
I had decided beforehand that I was not going to make any plays in Week 1, just write my picks down and see how I did. Watching all my winners go by un-bet was just too much to bear, so I finally decided to make a play on my best Wk 1 pick (Mon nt. - Patriots) which was a winner (1 unit to win .9 unit).
Regardless, I didn't post anything so you all have no reason to believe what I did or didn't do in week 1, so I'll just leave that at that.

Week 2
Chi
N.O.  -6*     Good N.O. team with 0-1 start in Home Opener in a game they need to win if they are going to be playoff contenders which I believe they will be. Home crowd. I expect a huge effort by a very motivated N.O. team in a venue which will be difficult for Chi to play in (noisy, raucous).                         PICK     N.O.

Sea
Pit -14         Very angry and embarrassed Pitt team now in their Home Opener looking to take it out on someone. Very bad Seattle Road team looking to be crushed in 2nd straight road game and traveling across the country West to East. Normally, I absolu... [More]

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