TomE's Blog

NFL WILD CARD ROUND

By TomE | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, January 04, 2012 02:55 PM   16 comments
Part 1
To begin, I would like to take a stroll down memory lane and take a peek at the past 5 wild card rounds, to get a feel and flavor for the type of action (dogs, favs, home, road) we can anticipate.
2010
NO   36    NO -10      
Sea  41                         home dog
NYJ  17
Indy  16    Indy -2           road dog
Balt  30
KC     7     Balf -3           road fav
GB   21
Phil  16     Phil -1.5         road dog       home 1-3,    fav 1-3
2009
NYJ   24    Jets -2.5      
Cin    14                         road fav
Phil   14
Dal    34     Dal -4            home fav
Balt   33
NE    14     NE  -3           road dog
GB    45     GB -1
Ari     51                         home dog      home 2-2, fav 2-2
2008
Atl    24
Ari    30     Ari  -2           home fav
Ind    17     Ind -2
SD    23                        home dog
Balt   27    Balt -3.5
Mia    9                         road fav
Phil    26
Min    14    Phil -3.5       road fav          home 2-2, fav 3-1
2007
Wa    14
Sea   35      Sea -3.5    home fav
Jack   31
Pit     29     Jack -3      home dog
NYG   24
TB     14     TB  -3       road dog
Ten    6
SD    17     SD -10.5    home fav     home 3-1, fav 2-2
2006
KC   8
Indy  23      Indy -7        home fav
Dal   20     
Sea   21     Sea -2        road dog 
NYJ  16
NE    37     NE  -9.5     home fav
NYG  20
Phil   23    Phil -6.5      road dog     home 2-2, fav 2-2

ALL ATS:
Home Dog 4, Home Fav 6, Road Dog 6, Road Fav 4
Home   10/20    Road  10/20
Fav      10/20     Dog    10/20


My point in this exercise is to show that in the Wild Card round, it is pretty much a toss up as to how Home, Road, Fav, Dog come out. The implication is that if you go with all favs, or dogs, or home, or road teams...you will likely go 50%

Part 2 next.....

16 comments
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MJ2345 says:
01/04/12 03:02PM
Europa says:
01/04/12 03:03PM

Jets were +2.5 NOT -2.5 at Bengals in that 2009-2011 Wildcard game.

So, it was road dog won straight up.

Europa says:
01/04/12 03:03PM
***2009-2010
TomE says:
01/04/12 03:13PM
Game 1
Cin @ Hou     Cin -3
Cin 5-1 ATS Road, 4-3 Dog
Hou 5-2 Home, 6-3 Fav
Good road dog vs good home fav (before Shaub was injured)
Cin coming in having won 2 of their last 3, Hou losing 3 in a row.
Hou in a weak division, Cin in a brutally tough division having to play Balt and Pit each twice a year.
Essentially, what I see as the main factor is that Hou injury-wise has taken quite a few hits this season.
Also, I do not like at all what I've seen from the Hou play-call/game-plan dept the last several games. They are playing very conservative, and are not showing much trust in rookie QB Yates. I don't see any reason for them to alter their recent inclinations, especially considering Yates suffered a shoulder injury getting sacked on his first snap this last weekend. I can see them protecting him with a heavy dose of run plays. I think there will be a lot of run, run, pass type play calls, and IMO this plays into Cin hands. Cin has a stingy defense 20.2 ppg, 104.7 RY, 211.6 PY.
Hou's offensive pass #s are inflated due to Shaub's early season #s which are completely irrelevant for this game.
I'll take the points here with Cin +3
TomE says:
01/04/12 03:15PM


THANK YOU for the correction!
Still, my point is valid that it has been a 50-50 prop dogs vs favs, home vs road in the wild card round...at least these last 5 years.
TomE says:
01/04/12 03:27PM
Game 2
Det @ NO  NO -11
Det 3-3 dog, 3-4 road
NO 11-3 fav, 8-0 home
mediocre road dog team vs outstanding fav and home team.
First, these are 2 explosive offenses but the main difference is that NO is balanced 132 RY and 334 PY while Det is 95 RY and 300 PY per game.  One dimensional teams are easier to defend.
The main advantage and factor IMO for this game is the venue.
NO is a beast at home, and on Prime Time, they have posted 4 blow out victories this season, including a 17 pt victory against Det.
Since this will be NO's only home Play Off appearance, I expect them to come out just as fired up as any of the Prime Time games they played already. I don't see Det as having much of a chance in this game. Besides their one-dimensional offense, they kill themselves with penalties, and they should struggle as before with the crowd noise in the Superdome making quite a racket when they are on offense. IMO, I would either have to take NO, or pass.
I'll take NO laying the points.
TomE says:
01/04/12 03:38PM
Game 3
Atl @ NYG -3
Atl 2-4 dog, 3-5 road
NYG 3-5 fav, 3-4 home
lousy road dog vs lousy home fav....tough choice
Atl PF/PA  25.1/21.9    NYG  24.6/25   Atl scores more than they give up, NYG scores incrementally less than they allow.   Pretty equal.
Atl  114.6 RY, 262 PY.    NYG  89.2 RY, 255.1 PY   Here, it is pretty obvious that Atl has a balanced offense, while NYG rushing game has been surprisingly poor this year.   Adv - Atl
NYG has been extremely inconsistent, losing a number of games they were favored and should have and needed to win; Sea @ home, Phil @ home, Was @ home most notable IMO. They won a big game against Dal to clinch the division.
Since I don't see NYG current home history as an advantage, I will take the points with the more balanced team which also happens to be the better defensive team as well.
Atl + the points
TomE says:
01/04/12 04:43PM
hmmm, my game 4 did not post and I got bumped off this site.
Anyway, here's another try after restarting my computer....
Game 4
Pit -9 @ Den
Pit 6-6 fav, 2-6 road
Den 6-4 dog, 1-6 home  
pretty bad ATS results overall for both
Pit PF/PA 20.3/14.2   Den 19.3/24.4   One team scores more than they give up, the other gives up more than they score  Adv - Pit
Offense: Pit 118.9 RY, 253.4 PY 372.3 TY balanced, good #s
Den 164.9 RY  152.3 PY  317.1 total.  above avg rushing, below avg passing - unbalanced offense. Also, the rushing yards padded by Tebow who is also the reason for the poor passing game. Adv - Pit
Defense:  Pit 99.8 RY, 171.9 PY, 271.8 TY
Den 126.3 RY, 231.5, 357.8 TY   One team has a very good defense, the other not     Adv - Pt
Pit comes into this game winning 2 of their last 3, Den losing their last 3...with 2 of those losses to very poor teams (Buf, KC).
IMO, even with Big Ben hobbled and Mendenhall out...I think this is a mismatch. Pit's D should smother Den. Den's poor D should allow Pit's hobbled offense some but maybe limited success.
I'll lay the big -9 with Pit.

Recap:
Cin +3
NO -10.5
Atl +3
Pit -9          2 dogs, 2 favs


BOL Everyone!
MJ2345 says:
01/04/12 05:26PM
BOL TomE

I like ATL ,I love over in the NO game but I am thinking Det will stay within 10.The other 2 games not sure yet.
gary69 says:
01/04/12 11:11PM
   Nice writeup. Just starting to study the games, but my experience with Pitt. is that they do the opposite of what is expected of them.  GL
MJ2345 says:
01/04/12 11:37PM
So why not just skip the first game and then bet the other 3 the opposite of that result.
EzzMoney says:
01/05/12 01:55AM

Recap:
Cin +3
NO -10.5
Atl +3
Pit -9          2 dogs, 2 favs

__________________________________________________

With you on Cin +3

Like the OV more than -10.5.  Concerned about the back door cover. 

Like NYG -3.5.  Have no faith in ATL on the road.  NYG have essentially been home for the whole month, where as, this will be second consecutive short week for ATL.  For their last five games, ATL lost at Hou (10-17) to a third stringer, beat 31-23 to a 4-8 Car team @Car, beat another 4-9 team with a rookie qb 41-14 vs Jags, lost 16-45 @NO, and beat yet another weak team 4-11 TB.

On the contrary, NYG lost to GB, beat Dallas (twice), beat NYJ and lost to Was.  Granted, loss to Was was alarming but it was Eli's worst game in 2011, IMO.  NYG other recent losses were @SF and @NO.  NYG are now a bit healthier at the LB's and RB's as well. 

Pitt@Den is a stay away game at this point.  Steelers are hurt.  They have not been impressive in their last five games.  They beat Cinci, lost to SF, beat Clvd (twice) and beat STL.  IMO, Denv D will keep the game close unless big Ben is 100%, which he is not.  I would likely place a wager in the 2nd half.

BOL

 



 

TomE says:
01/05/12 04:55PM

Thanks for your thoughts. You make a compelling argument for NYG. I still can't change my pick to NYG because they have a history of laying a big egg when expected to win.

In considering your points, I'll start with Atl with the consecutive short week. They played on Sunday, they will play on this coming Sunday again, I fail to see what you mean by the short week. Also, they had a laugher-butt-kicking of a game vs TB, those are not the ones which take a huge toll on the team from a physical or emotional point of view. They jumped out on top early, and I hope you realize that when they were  42-0 in the FIRST HALF when they already pulled Ryan and Turner, taking full advantage of the opportunity to sensibly rest starters. It's the hard-fought struggles which tend to take their toll. In contrast, the Giants had to play a Sun NIGHT game, and against a division foe which are usually brutal games which take a physical and emotional toll on the team. I know NYG won by a comfortable margin, but I didn't see them pulling starters late in the game, and they played a hard-fought, play-off atmosphere type game all the way to the end. So, Atl played one half of a Sun aft game, NYG played a full SN game...my question to you is...who is on the "short week"? There goes that argument out the window.

In considering your argument about Atl's games... the Hou loss was on the road at arguably one of the top defenses in the NFL at the time. That a third-stringer was the Hou QB is not very relevant IMO. Hou's offense only scored 17, that's not a bad job by Atl's defense. Yeah, they beat Car on the road which is not that impressive, unless you take into account it was a divisional game, and those are always tough games. They stomped on Jack 41-14, and that's exactly what a good team should do. The loss @ NO is understandable, no one has beaten NO at the Superdome. NYG lost @ NO 49-24, Atl @ NO lost 45-16. One team lost by 29, the other by 25...pretty equal. As mentioned earlier regarding their last "unimpressive" win, Atl was up 42-0, starters got pulled already late in the 1st half, and TB "only" lost by 45-24 in the end.

NYG's games you mention, loss to GB...a home game and at the time a "must-win" type of game considering their losing streak at the time...it was a valiant effort,but they still found a way to lose letting GB march down the field in 5 plays and how many seconds (?!) to kick the winning FG, which is not too impressive regarding NYG's defense. A case of good news, bad news. As far as beating Dal twice (Dal lost 4 of their last 5) and Jets (Jets lost their last 3), that is not that impressive considering those 2 teams stunk it up bad late in the season. The loss to SF is excusable. 2 loses to a bad Wa team and that stinker vs Sea @ home is a real head-scratcher....

Anyway, my point is that there is more than one way to look at the argument you present. You may be right that NYG will cover a third game in a row, something they have done once this season...but I remain doubtful regardless. NYG should be the pick considering they are at home, but they have a terrible record winning the games they should this season. Home teams are not that historically impressive in Wild Card round, NYG are definitely the type of team which may well disappoint.

We agree on Cin. I too like the overs in the NO game, but I am not terribly worried about a back door cover. NO at home has been extremely dominant on Prime Time this year and I don't see why I should suddenly think they won't be this one and only time. No has a well balanced offense and play good D at home, Det is a one-dimensional offense and a not-so-good D.

I also agree with you that Pit is not a "great" pick regarding their injury situation. However, I can't support a team with a terrible QB and facing a still dominant Pit defense. Believe it or not, I think Pit's D can win this game on their own. I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple turnovers, and Pit defensive scoring. I have a really tough time envisioning where Den's points are going to come from.

Anyway, I enjoyed thinking over your points, and I wish you the BOL this weekend!


TomE says:
01/05/12 05:11PM
I have the following wagers placed for this weekend:

WV +9    (Win)
Cin  +9
NO  -5
Atl  +9
Pit  -2.5    6 pt teaser    1 unit to win 4.5 units

Ark -1.5
over 57
NO -5
Over 53    6 pt teaser    1 unit to win 3 units

Cin +9
NO -5
Over 53   6 pt teaser    1 unit to win 1.8 units

NO   -11
Over  59     parlay    1 unit to win 2.6 units

Obviously, it must be apparent that NO and Over is my favorite play for this weekend, with a couple of units worth of teasers and a parlay on it.
That's all I'm going to play for now. After Saturday's card is said and done, I'll decide if there is any need or desire to make any Sunday wagers. Hopefully, my Sat picks will come through and I'll be able to ride that teaser with Atl +9 and Pit -2.5 remaining.

BOL everyone!
EzzMoney says:
01/06/12 02:03AM

"Atl played one half of a Sun aft game, NYG played a full SN game...my question to you is...who is on the "short week"? There goes that argument out the window."

<<< I goofed on the ATL playing on a short week.  I though they were playing on Saturday, 1/7 >>>  Your analyis of NYG and ATL games are equally valid.  Here is how I see the individual match up's.  Eli over Matt---a super bowl winning QB vs one without a playoff win.  A slight edge to Gmen's running game over ATL.  Bradshaw and Turner are both good but Jacob (when running hard) is a load and an advantage in the fourth qtr.  WR's/TE are about equal; ATL has a slight edge at TE, where as, Giants have three good wideouts vs two from ATL.  Yet, ATL will have to max protect on passing down as NYG have arguably one of the better defensive line in the NFL thus requiring Turner and Gonzalez to chip in on blocks.  Turner's style of running (power back), IMO, plays into Gmen's strength.  I also see an advantage in LB's and DB's for the NYG, especially, with Grimes and Spoon being limited in ATL's secondary.  Special Teams for either team, IMO, are nothing special.

The aformentioned are just my thoguhts and observations by watching the two teams and not derived from box scores so I could be totaly off-base when comparing actual stats.  I do like the fact that, while pondering on other's views, you stick to your guns when wagering. 

BOL

 

Copag07 says:
01/06/12 02:31AM


GL Bruh!

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