TomE's Blog

NFL Week 9

By TomE | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, October 30, 2012 03:21 PM   29 comments
S.D. -7.5
S.D. needs this game badly. Who better to pound than their personal doormat team, the Chiefs? S.D. has problems, but K.C. has just way more too many to even list, from the Coach on down. (I'm not a fan of coaches who can't delegate...ie Def Cord and HC - too much too handle). I think S.D. gets a feel-good win here.

Balt -3 1/2
Normally, I shy away from going against the HD divison rival, but Balt is coming off their bye and total embarrassment at the hands of Hou. Cleve, in spite of their feel-good win over S.D., is a crap team and Balt will show what's what in this game.

Pit +3
I have a rule about Pit. If you can have them getting points, take the points. The bonus is that NYG are due for a let-down after their big win in Dal, and they typically don't perform well as a favorite at home. Also, NYG have a comfortable lead in their division, there is no sense of urgency for this game unlike Pit who can't afford to drop another game back of Balt.

Dal +4
I went against Dal vs the NYG because I know Dal is an underachiever at home and it also seems that the bigger the game, the bigger the choke. Conversely, they are a great value on the road as an underdog. They play better on the road and here's a game they need badly. Atlanta is a good team but not a great team (look at the quality of their opponents so far). They will want to win this, but they won't need to win. I look for Dal to make a game of this contest so I'll be happy with the points. At this point, I view Dal as in desperation mode. They really need this game and a desperate team is a dangerous team.

N.O. -3
I have 2 rules regarding N.O.  1) Stay away from them when they are on the road. 2) Don't bet against them at home in Prime Time games (SN, MN). It's one of the toughest venues for opposing teams, and N.O. feeds off of the electric atmosphere, they will not be the same team you just saw Den crush....

I like Hou as well but I won't lay DD points. I have them teased:
SD - 1/2
Balt +3 1/2
Hou -3
Pit +10    7pt teaser

I don't make plays in the first weeks of the season, I like to see what's going on first and get the lay of the land so to speak. Also, although I haven't posted yet this season until now, I've been betting 2-3 plays a week for 3 weeks, and I have no complaints. I won't say how well I'm doing because I didn't post and you wouldn't believe it anyway.
Finally, I try to find only a couple of games each card. The more I narrow down my picks, the better I do. This week will feature the greatest number of picks with 4 (not counting Hou as a teaser pick) but that's because there are 4 I like, not because I kept digging until I found that many....

I wish everyone good capping and BOL.
Feel free to disagree, whatever. It's a free country.....  
29 comments
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TomE says:
10/30/12 04:18PM
Adding 7 pt teaser (6 teamer)
S.D. - 1/2
Balt +3 1/2
Hou -3
Pit +10
Dal +11
N.O. +4   

That's it for me. All my plays are in, 1 unit each.

avenue says:
10/30/12 04:19PM
Best of luck as always to you bud!
patsrus says:
10/30/12 05:21PM
loving the same pics.
TomE says:
11/01/12 11:57AM
Adding:

S.D. -4 1/2  1st Half  1 unit
KktdocT says:
11/01/12 04:40PM
GL, mate.
TomE says:
11/01/12 11:28PM
Recap:
1H SD -4 1/2   1 unit   
     SD -7 1/2   1 unit   

SD   - 1/2      
Balt  +3 1/2
Hou   -3
Pit   +10    7pt teaser   1 unit to win 1.9 units    3 pending

S.D.  - 1/2    
Balt  +3 1/2
Hou   -3
Pit   +10
Dal   +11
N.O.  +4     7 pt teaser    1 unit to win 4.75 units   5 pending

Also Pending:
Balt -3 1/2    1 unit
Pit   +3        1 unit
Dal  +4        1 unit
N.O. -3        1 unit     


Good start






TomE says:
11/01/12 11:43PM
ADDED

Cin + 3 1/2     1 unit


Cin is 3-4 chasing both Balt and Pit and they can not afford to lose this game. They're coming off the bye and it's now or never for them. Den has the current lead in their division having beaten SD already and they won a good game at home over the horrible, woeful road Saints last SN. Now, everybody is super-high on Den, and while I do like the team, they are now a bit over-rated I believe. I'll take a shot with the home dog getting over a FG.
clubtnt says:
11/02/12 10:45AM
is PIT still an easy pick even though they won't travel to NYG until game day?
TomE says:
11/02/12 12:43PM


I do wear reading glasses, but seriously, I could do with out the bold type, thanks (yeah, I know full well why you're using it). You're questioning my sanity. Come back and question it AFTER the game!  If Pit doesn't cover, I'll be questioning it myself anyway, lol.

Anyway, according to how I think of the term, "easy pick", my answer is yes, absolutely. It's a no-brainer.

I could care less that they won't arrive until game day. That's a smart move considering the Sandy mess there anyway. I'm absolutely certain the Steelers aren't going to use that as an excuse to bring anything less than their best in this situation. They know what's on the line, it's not just any old game.

Such worrisome thinking as insinuated by your question might have had you taking the points with the Lambs vs NE in London. SL got there well before the game, gave themselves a chance to acclimate themselves to the time change, etc. NE practiced at home until the last minute and arrived in London and played the game, they were all business. How did that work out? People make WAY TOO MUCH out of inconsequential matters. There are things that matter, and things that don't.

As far as I'm concerned, what matters to me is this:
NYG have a comfortable lead in their division. There is NO sense of urgency. Sure, they would like to win, but they don't have to win this game. They are feeling quite comfortable right now. Comfort and complacency is not where you want to put your money. I want the team with their backs to the wall, fighting for their lives! Also, NYG's very MO is that they cover when they're expected not to (@ SF, for example), they don't when they're expected to  (@home Wk1 vs Dal, home vs Wash, for example). This is nothing new, they've been doing this for years. Remember last year's shocker @ home vs Seattle?

Pit is a team that in my experience has been awesome in the role of dog. They are trailing Balty, they absolutely can not afford to lose this game and drop another game back (I expect Balt off their bye to handle Cleve and I'm sure Pit is fully aware of this). This is about as MUST WIN as it gets. They don't win this game, their playoff hopes are crippled and on life-support. By the way, Big Ben, the Pit defense (defensive genius Dick LeBeau), and the team in general is not exactly chopped liver.

If the situation was reversed, Pit leading their division, must win for NYG, NYG plus points, I'd take NYG. But it's not. This is a different mentality for both teams. Pitt will be the team with the chip on their collective shoulders.  I like this pick!
Absolutely, this is an EASY pick. That however, is not the same thing as saying it will be an EASY game, understand? No way in hell though would I entertain the idea of backing NYG as a fav in this situation. That's a homer play or a suicide play, same difference IMO.

I felt the same way about SD last night (EASY pick). I never considered KC as a viable option, period. I saw so much stupid talk about KC and the Unders yesterday, it was ridiculous. Those are people who have no clue "who" these teams are, here and now. SD needed the game to keep their play off hopes alive and could not afford to drop another game back of Den.  KC's season was already kaput, done, finished. SD had a lot to prove stinking it up last few games, and in spite of that, were still in the playoff hunt. They also typically crush KC. They already beat them on the road handily, and peeps were doubting they could do the same at home, with super-motivation? Now, that's insanity. They also come on strong this time of year. Seriously, what was so hard about that pick?  Only fools IMO could think KC was going to cover that game. That said, I can see KC winning a tough game at home down the road for pride like they did to undefeated GB last year, but they are still some distance from turning around their current funk. Right now, that is a team on pace to set some kind of record of giving the ball away. Last night was just more of the same. That is not a team anyone with a brain and the capacity to use it properly should want to back, especially it that situation.

You have to know the teams, what their tendencies are. You have to consider the all important motivations this time of year concerning making the playoffs. Pitt @ NYG is a situational play. Those are the ones I look for, wait for. Nothing is guaranteed in life, nevertheless, that pick is as EASY as they come.

BOL whatever





TomE says:
11/02/12 01:46PM
By the way, I want to mention I think that NO is the weak link on my card this week. IF my teasers are alive come Monday, I might consider making a play on Phil + the points covering my 2 units spent (2 units to win 6.65 units) and a little extra to ensure a profit no matter what happens, with a chance to middle as well. If my teasers are dead, I may even buy back my straight bet on N.O.

Both teams have tons of motivation. NO @ home in Prime Time (SN, MN) has been golden last 14 months, but I can also see some value with Phil + points with their backs to the wall as well (like what happened @ Pit) .

This game is not as clear to me as the others on my card. I'm going to forget about it for now and give it more thought come Sunday/Monday.

BOL

choiOi says:
11/02/12 03:11PM

 

philly........

choiOi says:
11/02/12 03:21PM

 

i am still trying to figure this game out...i know the stock on manning has gone up since the comback vs. chargers. i know he is the public darling along with brady...but i just can't pull the trigger on cincy +pts. now that it's +3.5...i may do so, but i know it's going to be a sweating contest the entire game. i took the safe route and teased den up to +7 earlier in the week. gl.

TomE says:
11/02/12 04:38PM


If Cincy not coming off the bye, playing @ home, and not being in their current predicament (about to see their season go up in flames if they lose another game and Balt and Pit pull away some more), I would not consider this play. Also, if I believed they are a crap team (like KC for instance) incapable of mustering a good effort as I view the team as they are right now, I would also pass.

I think people are a little too high on Denver right now. They are only 4-3, that's not exactly a "super bowl contender?" as mentioned from people who should know better,  LOL!  People give kudos for coming back against SD down big (but forgetting that this team was down 24-zip in the first place) and for smacking NO at home SN (when Den was also coming off their bye), NO - a horrible road team to boot.

I have all respect for Den and I believe they are actually a playoff caliber team. I do think they are beatable, especially on the road. I do believe Cin can beat them. Whether they will, we'll see. If they lose by 3, I'll be satisfied nevertheless.

Cin will be fighting for their season's life, but I have no doubt just as you pointed out that it will be a sweating contest. Probably some nail biting and hair pulling too, lol. It just might be I've got a little too much gamble in me with this pick. I added it being quite high from the winners I bagged last night. Right before that game, I added SD -1 1/2 to over 34 1/2 teaser, because I thought the number (total) was a bit low and I honestly believed S.D. was going to lay the wood on KC, maybe getting the teaser total all by themselves. I never had a doubt that S.D. was the right side. Also, after I won my first H pick, and seeing the way the 1st half was played, I added SD -3 +105 for 2nd H. Won all 4 of my 1 unit bets and was clearly inebriated with winner's euphoria....hahaha

If I lose that Cin pick, that's what I'm going to blame it on, lol.

BOL

TomE says:
11/02/12 04:41PM



LOL, I know.   
TomE says:
11/04/12 11:04AM
Adding teaser:

4 teams, 7 points

Ind +9
TB +9
GB -3
Phil +10     1 unit to win 1.95

As mentioned, I'm now feeling I made a mistake with my N.O. pick. That was based on my past observation that they have been awesome at home in Prime Time games (SN, MN). However, I was ignoring the glaringly obvious fact that this is not the same N.O. team as has been taking the field the last several years. The "pay for pain" blow-back resulting in the suspension of HC has a huge effect on this team. They are now one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the fact that Phil has been underachieving, is talented, and a desperate team has me thinking this contest is going to be close, if not Phil winning outright.

Mia is typically a terrible favorite + Indy is quite the Luck-y team now playing scrappy, inspired ball. I look for a tight contest here as well.

Oak is another team that is great as a dog, and often so very disappointing as a favorite. I look for TB who is playing pretty good ball right now to make this another tough game.

Finally, GB at home facing Ariz on the short week ("played" MN) and on the road. I don't see how their offensive line is going to allow the Skeleton to survive this game, let alone find much success in this contest. Arizona's defense made SF's Smith look like one of the greatest QBs of all time (which he is NOT) and I can see the better QB Rodgers having a field day in this spot

I have 3 live dogs (IMO) in this teaser and a home team who should enjoy laying the wood on the currently hapless Cardinals.

BOL!
clubtnt says:
11/04/12 11:43PM
you knew i'd be back. your easy picks:

pit
dal

1 for 2, which is what statistics dictates. no "easy" picks in gambling.
TomE says:
11/05/12 12:10PM
Recap:  WEEK 9
1H SD -4 1/2   1 unit   
     SD -7 1/2   1 unit   
     Balt -3 1/2    1 unit 
     Pit   +3        1 unit 
     Dal  +4        1 unit
     Cin + 3 1/2   1 unit

     N.O. -3        1 unit    PENDING
________________________

SD   - 1/2      
Balt  +3 1/2   
Hou   -3         
Pit   +10            7pt teaser   1 unit to win 1.9 units  
__________________________________

S.D.  - 1/2    
Balt  +3 1/2  
Hou   -3        
Pit   +10        
Dal   +11       
N.O.  +4     7 pt teaser   
 (  NO + 4 PENDING )        1 unit to win 4.75 units 
_________________________

Ind +9   
TB +9    
GB -3    
Phil +10      7 pt teaser
(Phil + 10 PENDING)   1 unit to win 1.95
************************************************************
SCORE:
+5.9 units
-2.2  units          +3.7 units total

ALL PENDING PLAYS:
6 team teaser (NO +4 remaining)   1 unit to win 4.75 units
NO -3      1 unit 
4 team teaser  (Phil + 10 remaining) 1 unit to win 1.95 units

With my remaining plays pending, I'm up roughly 4 units for Wk 9
with 3 units at risk
However, no matter the outcome of tonight's game, the worst that can happen is I would lose .15 units if No loses by more than 4
All scenarios:
A) NO loses by more than 4: +1.95 units -2.1 units =  -.15 unit
B) If N.O. loses by exactly 4, my 6 team reduces to a won 5 team (+3.25), NO -3 loses, 4 team Phil teaser wins (+1.95): 3.25 -1.1 + 1.95 = +4.1 units
C) If NO wins by exactly 3, I tie the straight bet and win both teasers: 4.75 + 1.95 = +6.7 units
D) If NO wins by more than 3, but less than 10, I win everything
1 + 4.75 + 1.95 = +7.90 units
E) If NO wins by exactly 10,  I win the NO straight, NO teaser (+4.75 units), and the 4 team reduces to a won 3 teamer (+1.2 ):
1 + 4.75 + 1.2 = +6.95 units
F) If NO wins by more than 10, then +1 + 4.75 -1 = +4.75 units

Initially, my knee-jerk reaction to the matchup was to take N.O. @ home in a Prime Time game (SN,MN) where they have been awesome last 14 months, and unfortunately, I did not think it out beyond that.  Problem is, on further thought, this is not last years N.O. team. HC suspension, defense suffering. Also, Phil is a "capable" (talent-wise), under-performing (thus far), desperate team. Phil as a dog in this spot looks mighty tempting and I think it could easily be a winner.  Also, road dogs this season are currently 51-31-3, and that's not a trend I want to be on the wrong side of.

I believe Phil covers the +3 tonight, so I'm adding:
Phil + 3 -125 to the mix which changes my worst scenario (A) from  -.15 to +.85 unit
B) +5.1 units
C) +6.7 units (no change - both straights push)
D) +6.65 units
E) +5.70 units
F) +3.5 units

I'm happy now with the situation. I've bagged + 3.7 units, and no matter what happens tonight, will increase my win by another .85 unit minimum, to anywhere from +3.5 to +6.7 units based on the spread of the final score.  Obviously, I'm rooting for Phil to win by 4 points or less, or any score where NO wins, but hopefully no more than 10. Great key numbers to work with, I'm excited to see how it resolves!

All in all, I'm pleased with this week except that I stupidly added the Cin pick (which almost immediately gave me buyer's remorse). I rejected it initially, and at best, I would call it a "gutsy" pick.
The Dal pick was a play I would make again and again in that situation. If Atl gets one last first down before they kick the field goal (they had 2nd and 5), it's kneel-down time and I would have won that too. Bummer....

BOL everyone!




 
clubtnt says:
11/05/12 12:20PM
nice score for the week

on the ATL game, if the kicker hadn't missed those chip shot field goals the last ATL drive wouldn't even be worth mentioning.
choiOi says:
11/05/12 12:20PM
TomE says:
11/05/12 12:55PM


Yeah, I did know you'd be back because I already had you correctly pegged as a DICKHEAD. The bold type, and bringing up a NON-STORY with Pitt flying into NY the day of the game. You likely considered that a "huge" disruption of Pitt's routine completely IGNORING the much bigger disruption to NY's routine with Sandy and how it completely messed up their whole week of practice. You were 100% wrong bringing up that point in your post as some kind of evidence that the pick wasn't "easy"... That was a super-easy pick based on awareness and situational knowledge.

Also, you just proved to me as well that your reading and comprehension skills are quite poor, thus you're a dumbass. I already explained to you previously that there's a difference between an EASY PICK and an EASY GAME.
The Dal pick was as easy as they come and I would repeat the same pick in the same situation over and over. Desperate team in playoff contention with loads of talent although under-performing getting points against a team that did not need the win.
The game, was not "easy". Moronic play calling by Dallas, much too conservative. When they finally turned Romo loose as the gun-slinger he is, he marched Dal down the field in 2 minutes for a TD. Unfortunately, by then, it was already too late. Also, if Atl picks up one last 1st down at the end, they kneel down and don't kick that all-changing final FG. I had a great chance to nail that winner too.

Do you get it now that I've had to explain it to you twice that an EASY PICK is not dependent on the result? Just because I believe a pick is EASY, that doesn't mean it will win!
"easy pick", "easy game or winner"   - not referring to the same thing, different meanings.  One refers to the PICK, the other to the RESULT. You are confusing what I said, with what you thought I meant.

By the way, I kicked a$$ week 9, thank you very much. By the end of 2nite's game, I will be up a minimum of another +4.55 units with chances to more than double that based on the spread of the final score.

So you take take your "what statistics dictate" and shove it up there where the sun doesn't shine.


TomE says:
11/05/12 01:06PM


I wish Atl had made those FGs. That would have changed the entire dynamics of the game. Because they missed, Dal's idiot play-calling would not have given them the option of being so conservative. As long as Dal was winning, or tied, or only within a FG - they were playing conservative "try not to lose" ball, a sure-fire way to lose. As soon as they needed to cut it loose, they did but it was already too late.


TomE says:
11/05/12 01:08PM


thank you  
TomE says:
11/05/12 01:24PM


Had I seen this post before I replied to your previous one, I would have toned it down and been much more diplomatic, perhaps not even responding.

Had I said "my pick will be an easy winner", I would have deserved your criticism and my reply would have been "you are right".

However, I had already explained to you before what I meant, and you either didn't see it or didn't care.

Anyway, I take back my harsh words and wish you BOL in the future.



clubtnt says:
11/05/12 01:57PM


geesh that was kinda harsh. i've never been harsh to you have i? you're right, in my mind i did have easy pick = easy cover because the easy picks you quoted in the past were winners. so the clarification: easy pick does not necessarily equal easy cover. easy/hard game is beyond the point.

you assume pitt traveling was an issue to me but it wasn't. just wanted to know if it affected your decision and clearly it did not and it was the right call.

BOL to us in the future and lets make some .
TomE says:
11/05/12 03:27PM


I've already explained why I reacted as I did. When someone makes his post extra large and in bold print, it's like a poke and a jab (to me). That post was like saying, "Hey idiot, see this? Now, is it still an easy pick?" Then you came back to say "I told you so".

I had already thought better of what I said to you in response, regretted it and "took it back".

I completely agree with you that it was pretty harsh.

To make things completely clear, let me just add that I apologize for my crude remarks.

As you added, BOL to us in the future. The books are the enemy, not you or me. 




i_Win_u_Lose says:
11/05/12 04:15PM

.......seems like youve been betting for a while and know what you talking about.....u know situations and angles that if i was to try to explain those angles to my sqaure co workers or sqaure family members..why the reason i would take dallas or pitt.... they would think im an idiot... all they say to me is ... HOW IS DALLAS TEAM GONNA BEAT A 7-0 TEAM AT HOME?... they uncontrollable says its gonna be a blowout 47-10 type of game. funny after the game was over.. i was the only dallas backer in the room filled with atlanta backers telling me "i told you so...take atlanta" .... but yet them fuckers was sweating they ass of the whole game .... cuzz 1 or 2 plays fucked up the outcome... i took dallas cuzz i knew its gonna be a one possession game all the way ... so why not take a desperate dallas team +5 ... same as you... i would make that bet over and over again .... BOL tonight as I also got philly +3
i_Win_u_Lose says:
11/05/12 04:18PM
both teams are desperate in the dome tonight... but one team can play D and the other can't...
TomE says:
11/05/12 08:21PM
adding 1 unit
Phil ML +120

Just heard something in the pregame stuff I liked.
Last Thurs, in the pregame interview with Norv, he said they had one of their best practices of the year and he was feeling good about facing KC. I liked it when I heard it.

Now, I just heard that after the Phil Player's Only meeting, they followed with 2 of their best practices of the year....

choiOi says:
11/05/12 08:25PM
It's not the 1st time iggles had a players only meeting. GL....
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