S.D. needs this game badly. Who better to pound than their personal doormat team, the Chiefs? S.D. has problems, but K.C. has just way more too many to even list, from the Coach on down. (I'm not a fan of coaches who can't delegate...ie Def Cord and HC - too much too handle). I think S.D. gets a feel-good win here.
Balt -3 1/2
Normally, I shy away from going against the HD divison rival, but Balt is coming off their bye and total embarrassment at the hands of Hou. Cleve, in spite of their feel-good win over S.D., is a crap team and Balt will show what's what in this game.
I have a rule about Pit. If you can have them getting points, take the points. The bonus is that NYG are due for a let-down after their big win in Dal, and they typically don't perform well as a favorite at home. Also, NYG have a comfortable lead in their division, there is no sense of urgency for this game unlike Pit who can't afford to drop another game back of Balt.
I went against Dal vs the NYG because I know Dal is an underachiever at home and it also seems that the bigger the game, the bigger the choke. Conversely, they are a great value on the road as an underdog. They play better on the road and here's a game they need badly. Atlanta is a good team but not a great team (look at the quality of their opponents so far). They will want to win this, but they won't need to win. I look for Dal to make a game of this contest so I'll be happy with the points. At this point, I view Dal as in desperation mode. They really need this game and a desperate team is a dangerous team.
I have 2 rules regarding N.O. 1) Stay away from them when they are on the road. 2) Don't bet against them at home in Prime Time games (SN, MN). It's one of the toughest venues for opposing teams, and N.O. feeds off of the electric atmosphere, they will not be the same team you just saw Den crush....
I like Hou as well but I won't lay DD points. I have them teased:
SD - 1/2
Balt +3 1/2
Pit +10 7pt teaser
I don't make plays in the first weeks of the season, I like to see what's going on first and get the lay of the land so to speak. Also, although I haven't posted yet this season until now, I've been betting 2-3 plays a week for 3 weeks, and I have no complaints. I won't say how well I'm doing because I didn't post and you wouldn't believe it anyway.
Finally, I try to find only a couple of games each card. The more I narrow down my picks, the better I do. This week will feature the greatest number of picks with 4 (not counting Hou as a teaser pick) but that's because there are 4 I like, not because I kept digging until I found that many....
I wish everyone good capping and BOL.
Feel free to disagree, whatever. It's a free country.....