First off, there's something I have to get off my chest, a therapeutic rant if you will. The target of my rant is.....ME!
Week 9 was my first posting of the season, and my head was clear to start, picking SD, Balt, Pit, Dal, NO (4-1). My week wasn't the worst, adding 6.35 units to my roll. However, my week 9 ended on a doubly-sour note which has me feeling like a stupid fuking moron and a loser. First off, I did my picks early in the week, late Mon and early Tues which usually works well for me. I have a fresh perspective of what is, unpolluted by thinking too much on what is actually quite simple. Perhaps from winner's euphoria or too much time on my hands, I spent way too much time thinking about the games after that, all week long, and even committed a cardinal sin, which was to change a pick. I ignored the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) and over-thought the matchups. I had already learned in the past that changing a pick is a bad thing. For me, it results in way more losers than winners and the obvious truth is that if one first picks one way, and then changes to the other side, the fact is that there is clear confusion which should be respected. The correct play then is to PASS (or leave the original pick alone). Show some damn discipline for Pete's sake! I changed my pick from N.O. to Phil.- LOSER!
I added a pick I had already rejected early in the week: Cin. - LOSER!
Part 2 of my stupidity is this. I had great discipline to start the season, consciously deciding to pass on the first month, getting a feel for what's happening and I'm happy with myself about that. I believe my idea had the intended result. When I jumped in a few weeks ago, I had 2 picks which both won, followed the next week with 2 weeks that won, followed the next week with 4 picks that won. Then, I got completely full of myself, revisited my account here on covers and posted my picks for week 9. Had I just left it at that as I intended, I would not be so down on myself going 4-1 on my original picks. But, I then got way too involved, added a loser (Cin), and then changed a winner to a loser. I spent way too much time reading other's opinions and perhaps even confusing myself with too much damn information. After that Phil game, I couldn't even sleep being sick to my stomach at how my last two picks (Dal, Phil) were such horrible, crap picks and that I should have known better. I jumped onto the angle that teams with playoff aspirations and in desperation mode "needing" to win, and therefor... good picks (WRONG!). Hence; Cin, Dal, Phil. The reason these picks were such crap picks IMO is that I was ignoring the reality which I was also fully aware of. The reality is that those teams are CRAP teams (and 2 of them were facing good teams: Den, Atl!). Dal and Phil especially bad due to the fact that they feature 2 idiot coaches who do not have a clue. I shouldn't even have to explain why Jason Garret is an idiot as a HC, he's made quite a few very costly mistakes regarding game planning and game management over the last couple seasons and this last extremely conservative approach at Atlanta was no exception. Reid, although highly respected, is not too bright either. I can point to a few examples. Last year, he promoted J. Castillo, an offensive guy, into the spot of Def Cord. WTF? Look at what happened, was that a "smart" move? Duh, NO! Another example is I heard that Vick thought he was going to be benched, when in fact, Reid had no such ideas at all. The HC is supposed to be the guy who manages games, manages personnel. He should know when and what when it comes to stroking players, or cracking the whip. He's supposed to keep his players prepared, happy, and focused. How is it that he allowed Vick to think he was getting benched, when there was no such intention? Why did he allow a key player to get embroiled in an inner turmoil which could not possibly have had any other effect than remove the focus from where it should be? Vick should have been thinking about how to improve his game, reducing costly errors...not worrying about whether he's getting benched or not. Isn't communication a pretty important part of managing personnel?
Anyway, whatever. I shouldn't care whether a coach is a moron or not. I should instead be happy that I'm aware of it and then take advantage by fading those idiots hard and often.
The fact is that I allowed some somewhat intangible "angles" obscure my knowledge that these teams are shit. Shit rolls downstream as they say. Two teams loaded with talent, yet they are stinking it up, under-performing at nearly every opportunity.
You've got 2 shit coaches, polluting the teams with shit rolling downstream resulting in shit play from players who are loaded with talent. Putting talented players in positions to lose is how "good" team lose. That does not correct itself. It can only be corrected by shit-canning these coaches, and trying to replace a losing culture with a winning one (want an example? - looks @ SF and what Harbaugh did in ONE season with basically the same personnel!!!!!). If the situation persists uncorrected, the obvious play from a bettor's perspective is just take it for what it is, and bet accordingly! Hence, Atl and N.O. were OBVIOUS picks. So was Den for that matter. I allowed myself to be blinded by some ethereal angles, grabbing on to smoke and mirrors and ignored the flat-out obvious reality.
THAT IS WHY I AM SOOO PISSED AT MYSELF!
Anyway, I had to get that out of my system. Now I feel I've got my head screwed on straight again and I plan on getting back to where I was before I got blinded by my own success. Thankfully as well, before there's much damage as well!
Next post coming up is my week 10 thoughts and picks. Coming up in a few......