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NBA Rating Plays (Friday, 11/28)

By VGPOP | View all Posts
Posted Friday, November 28, 2008 08:07 AM

15 comments

OVERALL Rating Posted Record: 19-11-0 (63.3%) (Yesterday: 2-0-0) (POWER PLAYS: 4-4-0)
LAST 10 Rating Posted Record: 14-12-0 (53.8%) (Yesterday: 1-1-0) (POWER PLAYS: 5-3-0)
ROAD/HOME Rating Posted Record: 19-12-0 (61.3%) (Yesterday: 2-0-0) (POWER PLAYS: 9-6-0)

AVERAGE: 20-12-0 (62.5%) (Yesterday: 2-0-0) (POWER PLAYS: 8-3-0)

Friday, November 28 2008

AVERAGE Power Rating Line:

- Atlanta/Toronto (PK)

- Boston -6.0

- Detroit -1.5

- Minnesota -8.0

- Utah -11.0

- LA Lakers -10.5

- Cleveland -19.0

- Phoenix -6.0

- Indiana -4.5

- San Antonio -12.5

- Portland -4.5

Later, if I have the time, I'll post game by game in depth lines.

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TheBest says:

11/28/08 01:50PM

its a good guide to let u know where the line should be good stuff .

baseball467 says:

11/28/08 03:52PM

good stuff vgpop

Jammer11 says:

11/28/08 04:17PM

VGPOP, than you very much for posting your ratings. can you or someone explain this to me. Not the system but how to read who to play and whovthe PowerPlays are? Any help would be appreciated!!!!

VGPOP says:

11/28/08 04:24PM

Plays, based on average:

Atlanta ATS (Power Play)
Philadelphia ATS
Cleveland ATS (Power Play)
Minnesota ATS (Power Play)
Miami ATS
Milwaukee ATS (Power Play)
Charlotte ATS
San Antonio ATS
(Sacramento/Utah) too close to call
(New Orleans/Portland) too close to call
(Dallas/LA Lakers) too close to call

VGPOP says:

11/28/08 04:24PM

Power Plays are when ratings differ at least (-/+ 4 points) from vegas closing lines.

dencol says:

11/28/08 04:37PM

bol

D-Town says:

11/28/08 04:48PM

CrazyMilkMan says:

11/28/08 06:30PM

VGPOP says:

11/28/08 06:44PM

Ok, I have completed my ratings. The rating plays I have posted until today did not take into account WIN-LOSSES + STRENGHT OF SCHEDULE.

I have decided to use my own version of ESPN RPI (Relative Power Index) ratings which take into account teams winning percentage (25%), opponents winning percentage (50%). and opponent's opponents winning percentage (25%).

I tweaked it with my own numbers and formula, and that's what I will use for WIN-LOSS + STRENGHT OF SCHEDULE RATINGS for OVERALL Ratings and LAST 10 Ratings. I will not use it for ROAD/HOME ratings since only 41 games are played (instead of 84 for regular season)

So, my ratings take into account

- Margin of victories/losses
- Defense (Points Allowed Per Game)
- Wins/Losses + Strenght of Schedule (RPI, my own version)

I will not include days of rest, because there will not be sufficient data to get a good read on teams. (Besides, Covers already keep track of this, so there's no reason to go in-depth there).

Friday, November 28 2008

Atlanta @ Toronto
OVERALL: Toronto -0.108 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Atlanta -0.418)
LAST 10: Toronto -3.217 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Toronto -1.821)
ROAD/HOME: Atlanta -3.379

Philadelphia @ Boston

OVERALL: Boston -5.535 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Boston -12.038)

LAST 10: Boston -6.761 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Boston -12.513)

ROAD/HOME: Boston -5.627

Golden State @ Cleveland

OVERALL: Cleveland -18.850 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Cleveland -19.366)

LAST 10: Cleveland -21.042 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Cleveland -22.246)

ROAD/HOME: Cleveland -17.367

Minnesota @ Oklahoma
OVERALL: Minnesota -5.017 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Minnesota -1.805)

LAST 10: Minnesota -7.657 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Minnesota -3.825)

ROAD/HOME: Minnesota -11.586

Miami @ Phoenix

OVERALL: Phoenix -2.845 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Phoenix -6.957)

LAST 10: Phoenix -2.483 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Phoenix -9.764)

ROAD/HOME: Phoenix -8.201

Milwaukee @ Detroit

OVERALL: Detroit -3.373 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Detroit -6.358)

LAST 10: Detroit -0.657 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Detroit -3.222)

ROAD/HOME: Detroit -0.820

Charlotte @ Indiana

OVERALL: Indiana -4.305 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Indiana -5.786)

LAST 10: Indiana -3.319 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Indiana -6.663)

ROAD/HOME: Indiana -6.609

Memphis @ San Antonio

OVERALL: San Antonio -10.221 (NEW UPDATED RATING: San Antonio -10.081)

LAST 10: San Antonio -18.194 (NEW UPDATED RATING: San Antonio -16.894)

ROAD/HOME: San Antonio -8.992

Sacramento @ Utah

OVERALL: Utah -11.932 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Utah -10.092)

LAST 10: Utah -6.754 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Utah -7.567)

ROAD/HOME: Utah -13.723

New Orleans @ Portland

OVERALL: Portland -2.481 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Portland -3.674)

LAST 10: Portland -8.151 (NEW UPDATED RATING: Portland -7.688)

ROAD/HOME: Portland -3.603

Dallas @ LA Lakers

OVERALL: LA Lakers -13.110 (NEW UPDATED RATING: LA Lakers -13.776)

LAST 10: LA Lakers -10.003 (NEW UPDATED RATING: LA Lakers -11.715)

ROAD/HOME: LA Lakers -7.825

Jammer11 says:

11/28/08 06:52PM

Thank you!!

VGPOP says:

11/28/08 06:54PM

VGPOP says:

11/28/08 06:56PM

Meant to write 82, don't know why 84 came out.

VGPOP says:

11/28/08 09:27PM

After I incorporated win-losses + strenght of scheduled, Boston became a play (instead of originally 76ers)

Boston is blowing up 76ers (as of 4th quarter)

and it's understandable.

Taking Orlando out of the equation in their last game, 76ers went 3-2 against teams combined record of 15-58 (if you revised that, the actual combined record is 13-55) (23.6%).

And that's exactly why strenght of schedule is so important.

docterd597 says:

11/28/08 09:58PM

akison03 says:

11/29/08 05:18AM

pls... post early pics for saturday

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User:	VGPOP
Joined:	September 2001
Location:	Florida
Team:	Orlando Magic
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