If you remember a few weeks back, I discussed how Jazz home lines had become extremely inflationary given all the advantages Utah gets from playing at Energy Solutions Arena.  These advantages include most noticeably their extreme home/road dichotomy which sees the Jazz play infinitely better at home as their 31-6 SU record certainly indicates.  Furthermore, the Jazz also boast the loudest fans in the NBA, they benefit frequently from catching road teams in tough to impossible travel/situational spots, the zebras give them a disproportionate amount of calls, and lastly they defend better and score more points on their home-court.  So what’s there not to like about the Jazz at home?  Well, everything is great I guess except for again the INFLATED LINES.

When I brought this point up, the Jazz were in the midst of their twelve game winning streak, (longest such stretch in the NBA all year) which included a stretch of five straight wins and covers at home.  But as the Jazz began heating up- which coincided with the return of Carlos Boozer to the starting lineup- it was only a matter of time before people started catching onto their dominance.  Accordingly, the linesmakers had no choice but to start jacking up their home lines as bettors were lining up at virtually every turn for a chance to grab the Jazz at home.  When a team even the most novice gambler could see was cruising on their home-court, the linesmakers couldn’t just sit there idly and let it continue, they had to take measures to protect themselves.  

They say all good things must come to an end, and lately that’s certainly been the case in regards to Utah covering on their home-court.  In fact, the Jazz have been unable to cover five out of their past six home games.  Straight-up wins, yet non-covers came versus Sacramento, Houston, Denver, Washington***** and Phoenix.  The sole cover in that six game home stretch of non-covering futility came last Tuesday in another game versus the Rockets.

Bettors attempting to profit off one of the NBA’s pre-eminent home teams have to be growing somewhat disenchanted given recent performances.  A stretch of non-covers certainly doesn’t endear a team to me either.  However, tonight is a great opportunity to ride the Jazz  as there poor ATS home record in recent games is essentially allowing you to get a discount on the line here I feel.  Betting on the Jazz at home during their zenith was and is not the optimal strategy.  You don’t want to be betting into inflated lines.  As I said earlier, when Utah was covering like crazy it was a great time to begin fading them as it was inevitable the linesmakers would start catching up.  And they did just THAT.  But now after a poor stretch of home games ATS wise --having not covered five of six games--the value now lies back in betting on the JAZZ, as people are beginning to discount them at home it might appear. 

The Knicks are beaten down , injured and tired right now.  I'm surprised I'm seeing such a groundswell of support today for a team that just lost straight-up to the Clippers (gulp) and Kings (double-gulp).  In watching them play, it almost seems like they're legs are simply shot after playing at a frenetic pace all year.  Chris Duhon looks like he's about ready to drop dead any minute now on the court due to exhaustion.

After blowing a twenty-point lead in the second half Saturday to the Suns, I think we can assume the Jazz will be on their best behaviour for a full 48 minutes tonight to avoid a letdown once again.  That was very un-Jazz like to slip up in that fashion.  So tonight against the Knicks, if they get a chance to be in the same position, I think they will really look to bury the Knicks into the ground.

Jazz 1Q -3

Jazz 1H -6