ValueforRent's Blog

Gonzaga/Portland- Game of the Month

By ValueforRent | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, February 04, 2010 02:28 PM   34 comments
I really think we have a great situation tonight in Spokane to catch a vastly superior team that will not only be extremely focused to win, but win BIG and by a MARGIN.  First though, let's examine the Gonzaga basketball season so far to help uncover the mindset and make-up of this Bulldogs team.

After an impressive non-conference season that featured wins over Wisconsin (N), Cincinnati (N) and Illinois (A) and close losses to Wake Forest (H) and Michigan State (A), the Zags embarked upon play in the West Coast Conference.  They began the conference season rather impressively, winning and covering their first three games at Portland (-2) 81-78 (wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated), at St. Mary's (+4.5) 89-82 (led by as many as fifteen before the Gaels rallied late) and at San Diego (-8) 68-50.  So at this point the entire team must have been brimming with confidence considering their quick start.  They were also rising up the national rankings.  However, that's when complacency appeared to set in for this talented, albeit young squad.  In their fourth conference game, they stumbled and bumbled around at home against Pepperdine as 23-point favorites winning 91-84.  They followed that up with yet another lethargic home performance vs. Loyola Marymount (game was tied at half-time) before pulling away to eventually triumph 85-69, but any chance of covering the large 20.5-point spread was foiled by the slow start.  But those two weak home efforts ended up being the calm before the storm.  The over-confident Bulldogs waltzed into Santa Clara last Thursday laying 13 big points against an over-matched Broncos squad.  Well predictably the Zags came out flat against an inferior opponent as they proceeded to sleepwalk through the entire first half.  After being down by five at recess, the Zags allowed the feisty home team to increase their lead to as many as fourteen in the second half.  They finally awoke from their deep slumber to quickly erase that large deficit and took the lead for good with just under four minutes left to ultimately prevail 71-64.  This game only reinforced to the players that they could "play in spurts" and "turn it up" whenever they felt like it and still win.  It's almost like negative reinforcement.  You know why play hard for the whole game against a bad team when giving just the minimum amount of effort is still good enough?  Well eventually that's going to catch up to a team and burn them.  And that's exactly what happened last Saturday against San Fransisco, another team the Zags could name their score against if they wanted to.  The Dons played very hard, were fueled by some hot outside shooting, and the Bulldogs let them hang around long enough to force OT.  The momentum of the home crowd spurred San Fransisco on in the extra period as they eventually pulled off the huge upset, winning 81-77.  Give all the credit in the world to the Dons for playing and competing as well as they did, but Gonzaga shouldn't be losing to a team like that considering the talent they have.  It had to be an extremely humbling loss for Gonzaga as it also snapped their 27-game conference winning streak.  Afterwords, a dejected Bulldogs team spoke about their recent uninspired play with Junior Guard Stephen Gray admitting: "We've been putting ourselves in that situation it seems like just about every game..........We're not playing with the energy that we need and it finally caught up to us. Hopefully it will be a wake-up call."  Head coach Mark Few didn't hold back either stating: "We've been playing with fire a little bit".

So after everything that's unfolded in the past few weeks, I think this team is finally ready to start playing hard and up to their vast potential.  They finally got caught with their hand in the cookie jar, and I don't think they want it to happen again.  Nobody is pushing the panic button, but the players all realize it's time to step their game up and stop playing around.  Mark Few agrees saying: "We've just got to get back to playing the best we can at what we do best, and we've kind of gotten away from that a little bit."  

This really is a talented team, it's probably the most athletic team they've ever had.  Portland is a nice squad, they're well-coached and play hard, but that is all.  If Gonzaga is motivated on home-court, like they will be tonight, this game is really no contest.  They say heart beats talent unless talent has heart.  Well tonight Gonzaga will have BOTH instead of relying on just natural ability.  I fully expect a double digit victory and the Bulldogs combination of hustle, toughness, talent and athleticism to be far too much for the Pilots to handle in a forty-minute destruction.   

Gonzaga -8


34 comments
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whsbaseball21 says:
02/04/10 02:30PM
yeah the portland game is much bigger for gonzaga than memphis so i don't see the possibility of a look ahead.

and the usc/cal over is much better than taking a side. usc has shown signs of good ness- no one in the pac 10 is great- but they'll definitely hit 65 tonight in a win or loss and i think cal hits 65 as well.
rew_24 says:
02/04/10 02:49PM
I like your thinking on the Zag's, I feel the same way that M. Few feels, a little bit..Zag's by DD
Ools says:
02/04/10 03:29PM

This is 2010 Memphis, not 2009 Memphis -- not reason to be looking ahead to them. Look at who they have played: Duke, Cincy, Mich St, Wake, Wisc and Ill --- why get distracted with a visit to an average Memphis team. No issue.

STEELDRC says:
02/04/10 03:30PM

I am convinced. GL to you

ClassyAnski says:
02/04/10 03:33PM

Damn ...

 VfR

JEG53 says:
02/04/10 03:59PM
I was also thiking the over was a good play,that was my first thought when I looked at this,also the over in Buff.looks good.
nbafan88 says:
02/04/10 04:04PM
VFR
greenmonster says:
02/04/10 04:28PM
GL VFR, hope you kill it with zaga.
dontbookme says:
02/04/10 04:39PM

Bol bro.....

Nice write-up as well

greecebucs says:
02/04/10 06:30PM
Watch out for Portland tonight, this could be a real close game that comes down to who has the ball last. i am staying away from it,

my play of the day is Charleston - 9.5 to roll by 20

HiHoldem says:
02/04/10 07:29PM

tailin you dog

GL

ValueforRent says:
02/04/10 08:49PM
Taking Gonzaga 1H -4.5 for about 30% of my overall bet.
HotRoute says:
02/04/10 09:05PM
Kelly_Slater says:
02/04/10 09:18PM
How does the Team that Won the Maui Invitational loose to San Francisco State???
Consilience says:
02/04/10 11:00PM

Good luck, ValueforRent

Macwestie1 says:
02/04/10 11:02PM
Like your Pick on them Bulldogs woof! woof!
ValueforRent says:
02/05/10 12:02AM
I see this onslaught continuing in the second half.  Elias Harris, Gonzaga's best player, only had two points after early foul trouble.  Portland did NOT attempt a single free throw all half!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
ValueforRent says:
02/05/10 12:04AM
Will take some of the 1H winnings and roll them over on Gonzaga 2H -1.5.
nbafan88 says:
02/05/10 12:37AM
icemantbi says:
02/05/10 12:39AM
This one was easy, congrats
greenmonster says:
02/05/10 12:42AM
Dare I say, routine.
HugoBossNYC says:
02/05/10 12:43AM
Put 100 on the zags becuase of your well versed, well thoughtout write-up. We honestly need more people like you who actually do some form of analysis and put the facts together and make a well informed decision. Yet again . . . thank you


also put 50 on under 75 2H
gollum says:
02/05/10 12:49AM
great call
TailingExpert says:
02/05/10 12:50AM


Well done .... again.

Thank you for posting
dimenmoney says:
02/05/10 12:54AM
well done
ValueforRent says:
02/05/10 12:54AM
This is absolutely beautiful to watch.  Gonzaga up by almost thirty yet playing like it's a tie game.



Zags  
ValueforRent says:
02/05/10 12:56AM
LOL at the commentators comparing Matt Bouldin to Pistol Pete.



stoakron says:
02/05/10 12:58AM

I think you may squeak this one out

Nice analysis and pick

ValueforRent says:
02/05/10 01:08AM
Zags 1H -4.5    

Zags -8    

Zags 2H -1.5   


Consilience says:
02/05/10 01:10AM

Your writeup convinced me so thank you. I played Gonzaga -8.5
-102 pretty big based solely on your action. Great work!


ValueforRent says:
02/05/10 01:27AM


That felt like stealing.



Kurshka says:
02/05/10 01:28AM
jesron1269 says:
02/05/10 01:10AM

LOL... no kidding!  One thing they have in common (well all Zag guards for that matter other than John Stockton) and that is they don't play a lick of defense.

In either event, congrats on your big play.  I won 1.3 units and if I knew it was going to be such a big laugher I would have bet more.  But only if righ?  BOL!

puterguy57 says:
02/05/10 11:47AM

Excellent job,... Great write-up,... THANKS!!!

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