I don't think anyone would disagree that this season has been an unmitigated disaster for the Tar Heels. After a rather promising start that hinted at another deep tournament run, the bottom has fallen out and North Carolina has sunk to the bottom of the ACC Standings, tied for fewest conference wins at two. But as America's most high-profile college basketball team, the odds-makers haven't had to make any drastic adjustments to their lines, because the betting public has remained inexplicably infatuated with the young men in powder blue, in spite of their money-burning 7-14 A.T.S. record (2-6 A.T.S. in ACC play). That is until now. As the losses keep piling up, bettors have begun to grow weary of this sluggish and underachieving bunch. People are sick and tired of being burned by these guys. But tonight the mindset is all different and here's why. For the first time in eons the Tar Heels are a home underdog. They've sunk to such depths that finally the odds-makers have had enough and they've been forced to jack up their lines. Due to this adjustment, I feel like finally there is some line value in betting on North Carolina. This evening the Heels aren't being to asked to cover an inflated chalk line like they have failed to do countless times at home this season. They are now the ugly home underdog, and that's a completely different role. When nothing is expected of you, it's a totally different mindset. Not only are they underdogs in the betting line, but I think the team feels that way as well and because of it I think they will thrive.
Furthermore, who is Duke to be laying this type of point-spread on the road? As bad as North Carolina has been at covering home spreads, the Blue Devils have been equally as inept on the road, sporting an unremarkable 2-5 A.T.S. record away from the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor. This included straight-up losses as huge 11.5-point favorites at N.C. State and 7-point favorites at Georgia Tech. This team isn't exactly a juggernaut when they aren't getting that sweet home-cooking.
Given their abysmal season, it would take a minor miracle for the Tar Heels to sneak into the tournament. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't. But if it is going to happen, a winning streak must start tonight. A rivalry game against a hated in-state foe like Duke is sure to elicit maximum effort and inspire emotional play. But emotion and effort are already assumed in a rivalry game as fierce and heated as this one. I think the lessening of expectations and underdog mindset will allow the Heels to play infinitely more care-free and ultimately will be what propels them to the upset.
Tar Heels +6
Tar Heels ML +228