Last UFC put my whole bankroll on BJ Penn -280.  Not the smartest money management, but figured he would destroy Dirty Sanchez and he did.  BJPenn.com



LOVING Thiago Sylva +175.  Putting 5 units on it. 

Evans will struggle to deal with his mauling style.  He will keep coming forward all night, and while Rashad might be able to use his footwork and quicks to stay out of harms range for some of the fight, he will have to engage at some point.  At that point, I'll take Sylva's compact, efficient straght punches, over Evan's lunging wild swinging overhead rights any day.  Sure Evans has KO power, but Sylva has a very strong chin, and has come back to win fights after being rocked (See Antonio Mendes fight). If the fight goes to the ground, which is unlikely, Sylva has a VERY solid Juijitsu game and is dominant with his ground and pound from top position. 

I predict a Silva TKO stoppage, but even if this goes to decision, I like Sylva to inflict enough damage to earn the decision.  I feel that Evans is a solid fighter, but somewhat overhyped.  Looking back at his last five fights.....He earned a draw against a rapidly fading Tito Ortiz.  One that he only got b/c Tito got pts deducted b/c of grabbing the fence.  Had he not gotten pts docked, Evans would have actually lost to Tito Ortiz's corpse. He then beat Michael Bisping in unconvincing fashion, right before Bisping dropped a weight class. Then victories over Chuck Liddells washed up corpse, and and vastly over-rated lumbering Forrest Griffen.  Then of course he got destroyed by Machida.   I don't consider KOing liddell or Griffin particularly impressive.

I'm not gonna lie and say that any of Sylva;s opponents have been amazing.  He did destroy Keith Jardine who is a very solid 205 guy, if not quiet elite.  His one career loss was also an embarassing performance against Machida like Rashad.  However this guy has won EVERY one of his fights by stoppage.  He can finish guys on the feet or on the ground, and he is WAY less reliant on the fluke flash KO like Evans is. I also feel that the general public know Evans way better than they do Silva.  Evan's KO wins over fan favorites Liddell and Griffen are sure to influence the casual bettor, and this is one of the reasons I attribute to the line having Evans as a -220 fav, when I feel it should be almost even or -130 at best.  Great value for Silva here. 

Sorry for the long write up, but it's a big play for me, and I'm pretty confident in Silva. 


Really wanted to put something on Kampmann -240 b/c I think he will be fired up after that Daley loss, but the kid Volkman he is fighting is very good wrestler, and I don't wanna lose to the old wrestler "lay and pray" special.
9I will also be putting 8 units on Junior Dos Santos -300 over Gilber Yvel.  Yvel is a shell of his former self.  He is a very good striker, but undsiciplined and not in his physical prime anymore.  Meanwhile Dos Santos is already hands down one of the best strikers in the Heavyweight decision.  He is young and very strong, and I don't see him having any problem in this one.  No problem for me laying a lot of units on this heavy fave, should easily cash.


Silva +175 -------5 Units to win 8.75 units
Dos Santos -300--------------9 units to win 3 units