Watch's Blog

Round 2 WNBA Playoffs

By Watch | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, September 24, 2008 07:34 PM   19 comments
On Thursday, we have a battle of two Western Conference powers San Antonio Silver Stars and Los Angeles Sparks from the Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles.
 
The Sparks have been assigned an early line of -3 and an over/under line of 139.5
 
The Silver Stars went 1-2 against the spread in dispatching a game Sacramento squad, while the Sparks went 2-1 ats against the Seattle Storm.
 
In recent form, the Sparks are playing a little better brand of basketball than the Silver Stars going 8-2 ats overall in their last 10 contests, but that means nothing now as they are set to lay it on the line for a chance to get to the WNBA Finals.
 
The teams split their season series 2-2 with ats victories with the same mark. The under cashed the ticket 3 out of the 4 contests with average lines of 145. Accordingly the linesmaker has already made an adjustment for the 1st game of this matchup.
 
Should be interesting. 
 
In the Eastern Conference, the New York Liberty got by the Connecticut Sun with sheer grit and determination going 2-1 straight up and a sparkling 3-0 ats with the under cashing the ticket in all 3 games. The Liberty have had 8 out of their last 10 games go under the total with average lines of 147.5
 
They are set to face a Detroit squad that outlasted Indiana 2 games to 1 with an identical ats record. The over cashed the ticket 2 out of the 3 games with average lines of 147.
 
Head to head the ladies from Detroit enjoyed a 3-1 straight up record against New York this year and an identical 3-1 ats record with average lines of 4.5 and a -2 as a dog. The under cashed the ticket 3 out of the 4 games this year with average lines of 149.5.
 
The line for game 1 is set at New York -1.5 and the over/under line is set at 146, showing that the linesmaker has made an adjustment in response to that 3-1 under streak in their games.
 
Detroit comes into this series playing better than their adversary, going 7-3 ats in their last 10 games and New York is 6-4 ats in their last 10. Bettors should be aware that New York has gone 2-6 ats in their last 8 home games.      
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rod_steel says:
09/24/08 10:54PM
So far however, I do like New York -1.5 in game 1. But i must see a moneyline that coincides with that figure.

What do you mean by that?
kamahsutra says:
09/25/08 08:51AM
Good to see Watch back and writing.

 

I already like NYL at -1.5... but was intially leaning towards LAS, now I'm look into it a bit more.  Both teams came off big wins, SA in OT, and LAS surviving another 4th quarter melt down.  I'm more inclined to lay off this game and pound the loser of this game for game 2, as I don't see a sweep in this series.

Jive_Turkey says:
09/25/08 09:10AM
stars
bear says:
09/25/08 11:10AM
Hi!

I really like the OVER in this contest

My pick is the OVER 140 - 108 , S.A. at L.A. , good luck

nightridah says:
09/25/08 12:47PM
to all who is reading this shit........whether u post or not....im a be as real as possible.....its only one person who i have learned from since ive been a member....shit even b4 i was a member i used to read peoples opinions before making my decision....but that dude is WATCH......i know im better than the avg. mainly becuz i do this for a living....havent had a job since 98.....but the things that this dude knows is some real shit that have made me or turned me into even more of a dangerous hadicapper......the same will work for u who take this shit serious.....now i aint saying go jump on his nuts ....but learn from this man and u shall see a INCREASE in ya bankroll.....

as far as todays game with LA being at home...and with the way they have dominated at home against SA in rebounding (41-29) and (41-24)... i look 4 LA to come out early with more intensity and set the tone early......besides LA is 4-2 ats in the first half at home vs SA the last 6 times they have played in LA......HOWEVER  i believe that SA will dominate the second half and cover the spread....y u ask? becuz LA -3.5 is undervalued compared to the moneyline.....thats some shit i learned from WATCH.....pick.....LA AT THE HALF......SA WITH HALF POINT BUY FOR THE GAME.....AND OVER 138.5 WITH A HALF POINT BUY......PEACE OUT   

 

 

naught33 says:
09/25/08 02:04PM
  watch or nightridah....can you please explain how you determine these plays based on the spreads and ML discrepancies?  how do you know that the ML is off based on the spread?  just trying to figure out how you come up w that, read your writeup in the WNBA and on the neb/vtech game and still not fully grasping it, maybe post here, or PM me if possible, thanks i appreciate the help!
bookbuster8 says:
09/25/08 03:23PM
good info.
rod_steel says:
09/25/08 04:25PM
Watch thanks for responding to my question, this is what I thought you meant was making sure. I've looked into that approach and essentially it is a variation to the well known "reverse odds analysis" where you ignore all the trends in a particular event because you know Vegas has already reviewed that when setting their line, instead you focus on the line itself and ask yourself whether that line is an under or over value of the event at hand.

 

My only comment in this case it that looking at pricing discrepancies between the money line and the line is that you have to continually watch the movements, take the Sparks and Stars as an example. The line has shifted 1/2 point and the moneyline has IMO now corrected itself has it sits at -180. So the question is, is your intial analysis of the discrepancy valid seeing as the money line has corrected itself?

rod_steel says:
09/25/08 04:29PM
Away from analysing the line itself for a moment, you have a very valid point about Sparks blowing big leads late in the game. Which leads me to believe sitting out to begin with might be a good strategy and then jump on the Stars 2H.

 

Sparks 1H/Stars 2H strategy of sorts I guess is what I am thinking

bookbuster8 says:
09/25/08 05:24PM
Hi Watch,

 

Can you explain what it implies when the spread and moneyline does not match up? 

 

In the example for the Sparks game, does it mean Vegas put the Sparks line at -3 so more people can play the Sparks when the actual line should be -5 to reflect the value of the moneyline?

 

thanks.

gofish3 says:
09/25/08 05:48PM
BIGJBALLERS says:
09/25/08 07:33PM
WELCOME BACK!

I totally agree on the over but I worry that Riley takes far too many outside shots for my liking. I might wait till half and watch what is going on.
Retburj13 says:
09/25/08 08:45PM


 i was thinkin more Chuck D!

gl man
bookbuster8 says:
09/26/08 11:54AM

 

Watch,  at first I thought you knew what you were doing.. and then I read this...  I didn't know chasing bets was part of your system. 

 

 

naught33 says:
09/27/08 08:44AM
watch....can you please explain how you come up with your picks?  just trying to figure out how u determine the discrepancies between spreads and mls and finding the value thx
jerzeebook says:
09/27/08 08:55AM
Detroit is a mess on their front line right now. Even though they had the lead in that game you knew they weren't going to hold it. If New York wants to they will be able to score at will with the dike from Minnesota up front and Chameka going to the basket.
LaDaddy says:
09/29/08 02:54PM

.....New York has gone 15-5 OVER following a game where they lost ATS...........over looks sweet tonight...........gl

Hollow_Ichigo says:
09/29/08 03:21PM
newrebelintown says:
09/29/08 08:13PM
see three diferent score

 

42 - 23 HT

 

45 - 24 HT

 

and

 

42 - 24 HT

 

WHICH IS THE RIGHT SCORE?????

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