Posted Tuesday, April 24, 2012 09:50 AM
Let's lay out some assumptions: you figure team A wins 70% of the time and they are a -135 fav over team B. On a totally separate game, you figure team C wins 45% of the time, but they are paying +135. You have $200 to bet today. Do you throw it all on one or the other? $100 on both?
This forum doesn't always have to be about pick whores, right? We can talk theory every now and then?
Posted Wednesday, August 24, 2011 09:53 AM
Posted Saturday, September 18, 2010 11:31 PM
Just wanted to drop a few plays...
NCAAF Trend Plays haven't been hitting like I'd hoped. I think they went 2-1 this week, which is fine by me. But, they've definitely under-performed so far this year. I'm going to keep playing them and hope this is just variance...
*A word of caution, I usually don't play these NFL database picks very large until week 3 or 4. The only reason I'm posting them now, in week 2, is that I've been working really hard on trying to tweak the picks to get something to bet on this weekend (being a degenerate) and I thought I'd go ahead and post them. But, play them small if you're following.
GL whatever you decide to play!
Posted Thursday, September 09, 2010 10:27 AM
NCAAF Week 2: (Again, these are just trend plays - no capping involved. Play at your own risk.)
Thursday: Miss St +2 and UNDER 54; Temple -6 and UNDER 49 (Play MSU and Under NOW due to line moving against us. Play Temple and Under right before kickoff because line is moving in our favor.)
Friday: WVU minus whatever (wait until just before kick off since line is moving in our favor.)
NFL Week 1: Plays will be released on Saturday, most likely.
Posted Thursday, September 02, 2010 12:27 PM
It's back! My weekly football picks blog is back. And, I'm ready for some football.
Here's the deal: I play a few weekly NCAAF trends with no capping involved - that's right, I just play the trend plays no matter what the numbers are. For NFL, however, I strictly use a database to compile picks. I never waver from either of these strategies.
Every week, I'll start a new blog for Monday through Sunday. In that blog entry, I'll post a daily entry with picks for NFL and NCAAF. It's that simple. Follow along in you're interested.
Sou Miss +14
Iowa State -3.5 (got it early, it's at -5 now and still a play)
No Ill/Iowa St U46
NFL: No Plays
9/3 plays: NCAAF: Arizona -14; NFL: No Plays
*NOTE: There's a new feature for NFL this year: I plan to post the percentage of my bankroll that I will risk on each NFL play. I calculate this using a form of the Kelly Criterion.
Posted Thursday, July 22, 2010 04:10 PM
First of all, it's nice to see some editing tools from covers for blog entries. I hope it's possible to use these in the comments as well as the main blog entry.
Secondly, it's almost football time!!!! I had a great season last year. I'm look forward to keeping my win percentage up there where we left off last year. To recap, here's where I ended up as of January 20th, 2010:
NFL/NCAAF Past 6 weeks: 21-6-2 (78%)
NFL/NCAAF 2009: 177-137-4 (56%) (Got a little greedy in the middle of
the season and bet too many games.)
2009-2010 NCAAF Bowl season: 10-3-1 (77%)
Lastly, I want to talk math. There's a thread in GD (link here) that I started in order to discuss how to use basic mathematics to become a more profitable gambler. I plan to add a few things that I've learned over the last few days into this blog entry so that I can always find them easily. It is my hope that by blogging my educational process, I can help others become more successful gamblers as well.
Posted Wednesday, March 24, 2010 05:25 PM
Monday: No Plays
* NBA Houston +8 was the only play today, but there are a ton of injuries. For that reason, I have chosen to wait for a better opportunity.
Posted Thursday, March 18, 2010 09:38 AM
Well, I took a week off unexpectedly. I just needed a break, I guess.
I have been trying to quit drinking for the umpteenth time. This time I have been using COD: Modern Warfare 2 to fill in the time I usually spend at the bars hitting on women and drinking Absolut and Bud Light. I don't really consider myself a gamer, but I have to admit, this online multiplayer action is pretty fun. If you've got a PS3 and play COD:MW2, look me up and let's shoot some folks. My PS3 name is ZenButcher.
Could you believe that I haven't filled out any NCAA brackets this year? I'm just not that into it lately. I bought a new motorcycle this year. It seems that riding, playing COD, and working is taking up all of my time lately.
I will start running some numbers on the tourney today. I had planned on doing some in-depth analysis regarding the seeds and include that data with what the database predicted. But, I just don't feel into it. I will, however, run the database just like I have done for the last seven months.
Good luck in your office pools and whatever you decide to bet on this week!
Posted Wednesday, March 03, 2010 05:54 PM
Come on March Madness... I can't wait.
Monday: No Plays
Tuesday: No Plays
Wednesday: NCAAB: BYU -6, Charlotte +9; NBA: No Plays
Posted Tuesday, February 23, 2010 05:55 PM
Made a little profit last week. That's why we do this, right?
Monday: No Plays
Tuesday: Northern Iowa -9 (questionable play with that suspension), Illinois +3 (hate fading the home win streak in this series), and Golden State +1.
Good luck with your plays!
Posted Thursday, February 18, 2010 10:02 AM
I still haven't gone back and tallied up the YTD records. I've been a bit busier at work lately and, frankly, a little lazy about my sports plays. The plays have been fewer lately as well. I tried to squeeze some plays out of the database, even when the criteria were not met. And, as expected, that didn't work.
Last night was the first night in almost a week that all of the criteria were met to release a play. It actually produced 3 plays (1 in NBA and 2 in NCAAB). I was a little skeptical, so I kept them to myself. Unfortunately, they went 3-0. I apologize for that. From time to time, I get reminded to just stay disciplined and the profits will come. No need to over-think the system or try to force plays when there are none. I've been slipping lately, and I promise to get back on course.
I'll let you know what the database predicts around 5-6pm eastern.
Posted Tuesday, February 09, 2010 06:41 PM
And we begin another week... I'll update the records asap.
Posted Monday, February 01, 2010 02:04 PM
Well, the end of the week turned to mush for many reasons. I'll go back and update all of the records tomorrow. I'm still happy with how the year has been going and even with a poor few days, the database has still produced enough winners to be very profitable.
Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 02:21 PM
Past 7 days: 11-4 NCAAB; 4-0 NBA; 0-1 NFL.... 15-5 Total (75%)
Past 7 weeks: 36-11-2 (77%)
Since 9/1/9: 192-142-4 (57%)
Let's continue this incredible start to the basketball season...
St Joe's -5
Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 09:37 AM
Last Week (Everything): 1-2 (33%)
Last Week NCAAB: 0-1 (0%)
Last Week NFL/NCAAF: 1-1 (50%)
NFL/NCAAF Past 6 weeks: 21-6-2 (78%)
NFL/NCAAF 2009: 177-137-4 (56%) (Got a little greedy in the middle of the season and bet too many games.)
2009-2010 NCAAF Bowl season: 10-3-1 (77%)
NCAAB 2010: 0-1 (0%)
OK, I'm not much of a basketball fan. That's why I've procrastinated on getting the picks underway for the season. But, just this morning, I found a way to import the data from the web fairly easily. That should mean picks for both NCAAB and NBA every day.
There are a few issues, however. Instead of having 40-50 opinions to extract picks from, there are only about 10. This could lead to less value, but that's only a guess. Because of this, I'm not sure when to turn a lean into a play just yet. Today, for example, there are two 100% confidence plays. But, the difference between the projected spread and the actual spread is minute in one of those (less than 1 point, as a matter of fact). I'm going to try to use a combination of the two (difference in spread and confidence rating) in order to find the best value. I'll probably have a v... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 12, 2010 02:37 PM
Nice finish to last week. Just to update, here is where we start this week:
Past week: 2-0-1 (100%) NCAAF; 1-0 (100%) NFL .... for a total of 3-0-1 (100%)
Past 5 weeks: 20-5-2 (80%)
Current football season: 176-136-4 (56%) (Got a little greedy in the middle of the season and bet too many games.)
2009-2010 NCAAF Bowl season: 10-3-1 (77%)
Posted Wednesday, January 06, 2010 10:43 AM
I just went back and calculated the results so far for this football season: 173-136-3 or 56% for both NCAA and NFL. When I have time, I'll go back and break down between the two leagues. I feel like college ball brought down the win percentage, as it does every year. Perhaps next year I will cut down the number of college plays tremendously.
I have gone 9-3 or 75% in bowl games, but I was so skeptical about them that I gave most of them out as "information-only" plays. There is one play remaining, which is Central Michigan playing tonight. I know everyone would like a play on the Championship game, but I don't make plays just because a game is a "big game". With that said, I'll take another look and at least tell you what the DB predicts.
Since the 11/30-12/6 blog, where I went 12-12, I cut back the plays significantly and that helped a lot. As a matter of fact, I went 17-5-1 over the last 4 weeks, which is a 77% win percentage. That is simply unheard of in the sports betting world, even over a short period of time like 30-days.
So, I look forward to the playoffs coming up. I hope you'll join me next year for football season. Of course, I'll start releasing some basketball plays now that football season is winding down.
As always, I wish you the best of luck, whatever you bet. Thanks for all the emails, questions, and encouraging words throughout the 2009 football se... [More]
Posted Thursday, December 31, 2009 10:01 AM
Well, I've been going back and forth about releasing these bowl plays. I simply don't feel good about the DB this time of year because it doesn't factor in all the intangibles that are involved in bowl games. I've decided that I won't release any of these plays officially. I will give them out so that you can decide for yourself. But, I won't count any of these against my record.
If you've been following this blog, you know that I've gone 10-3-1 or 77% over the last 3 weeks. Fourteen plays in three weeks are not many at all. But, being very picky is what got me to a 77% win percentage and I'm going to keep the same strict standards in place that got me where I am.
**** NONE OF THESE PLAYS ARE OFFICIAL **** INFORMATION ONLY ****
DB likes Va Tech -5.5 (84% confidence) But, I think Tennessee covers and possibly wins outright
DB likes Cinci +13 (96% - highest confidence of all bowls) I don't like this one either. My money will be on Florida, as I think they win by 25. SEC vs Big East, I have to take SEC.
LSU +3 (82%)
Ohio State +4 (84%)
Uconn +5 (90%)
Okie St +3 (80%)
Boise State +8 (94% - 2nd highest confidence)
Central Michigan -3 (85%)
I'll update the NFL plays later in the week. Usually there is some good value in the NFL this time of year beca... [More]
Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 09:50 AM
Currently on a 8-1 run. Let's keep it rolling....NCAAF:
*12/20 Middle Tenn. (I know, this game has already been played... I apologize)
*12/23 Utah (Forgot to post yesterday - sorry)
1/4 Boise St.
1/6 Central Mich.NFL:
Posted Thursday, December 17, 2009 02:51 PM
Just ran the DB. It, of course, likes Indy tonight. I think every DB does because they simply keep winning (kind of like Denver earlier this year - man it took nearly 6 weeks for the DB's to get oriented again). Anyway, I like them as well, so I'm pulling the trigger.
NCAAF: (this is just looking ahead out of curiosity, these are not official)
Posted Friday, December 11, 2009 10:49 AM
Less talk. More action.
|San Diego +3
Posted Thursday, December 03, 2009 12:30 PM
So... I had a bad week last week. I supposed going 67% the week before was too good to continue. It happens. I hate when it happens, but it happens. I hope you stayed disciplined and kept your units the same. If you did, then you are still up for the year.
For the first week in a long time, I like the Thursday trends again tonight. After watching Oregon in that opening Thursday game at Boise State, I like playing them tonight. The public must have forgotten what a low-scoring affair that game was because this total is outrageously high at 62.5. I'm giving Oregon 34 and State 17 tonight. That's a good 7 points from the spread and 12 points under the total.
I can also see a little bit of value in playing Ohio tomorrow. I think 14 is enough here. I don't think it's a TD off like the Thursday night game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 34-24 type game here. I mean, what does CMU have to prove? I think it's a given that they win this game and I think the players feel that way as well. I'm hoping to see a boring 2nd half with CMU running the ball or throwing short pass plays to keep the clock running. I would like to see a 24-7 lead at the half so that CMU's players start thinking about the after-party and slack off a bit. Then Ohio can score a couple of "feel-good" TD's to get the backdoor cover. 34-21 wouldn't bother me.
As for ArkSt and WKY.... [More]
Posted Monday, November 23, 2009 11:24 PM
Beginning YTD: 133-103-2 ...56%
Congratulations to us for a
profitable 63% 12-7 winning week! You know what, though? It doesn't
mean anything this week. It's one of the things I love about sports
betting. Last week doesn't matter. It's all about the next play.
this week I am planning on having a few premium NCAAB plays. As I said
last week, the DB is not reliable enough this early in the season to
release every play. I'd just be giving out bad advice and I'd rather
give no advice than bad advice. However, if there are some high
confidence plays, I will release them.
As for football, we had
an incredible two Sundays in a row, going an amazing 10-0 in early
games. I've never seen any handicapper do that.... until now! And,
tonight we have a very confident database play in Houston -3 at home.
I'm going to analyze the game a bit more today to see if there are any
In NBA, I haven't even run a single game through the
DB yet. But, I am planning on starting today. Over the last two
years, since I designed the database, basketball has hit at the highest
winning percentage (both NCAAB and NBA) over baseball and football. I
am excited about getting it cranked up this year.
Good luck to everyone! Here's to another profitable week!
Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2009 10:35 AM
Looking forward to a great week ahead. The DB is firing on all cylinders. I have refined the criteria for making plays and I'm very confident in it now. You'll see a lot less plays from me from here on out. But, you should also see an improved winning percentage.
I am trying to decide how to work the weekday trends into the more refined pick criteria. I don't know whether to blindly keep following these trends, or to only release plays only if the DB agrees. I'll look at the data and figure out the best way to do it by Thursday night. There are no trends for Wednesday, so it has no bearing on tonight's games. FYI - for tonight, there is a very slight lean toward CMU, but not enough to make it a play.
Current leans in NCAAF this weekend:
Ohio State -11.5 @ Michigan
Kentucky +10 at Georgia
Virginia +21 @ Clemson
These don't qualify as plays, but they are interesting in their own right...
At -16.5, Oklahoma State was the top home team play. But, I see the line at -18 on pucku's contest page. And, at that price, the confidence level plummeted, so it doesn't qualify any longer.
The DB really likes Oregon State at Washington State +33 and Nevada at New Mexico State +32. However, it is not very good at picking against spreads this high. So, I'll probably hold off on these and wait for a better spot to risk my money.
Tulane at Central Florida -19 ha... [More]
Posted Thursday, November 12, 2009 10:50 AM
Last night I stayed up 'til 2am drinking and playing cards at pokerstars (id=zenbutcher). I hadn't had a drink in a week before that, which, for an alcoholic like me, is harder than it sounds. The point is, my head's a little cloudy this morning at the office. So, let's just dive right into the plays...
Oh, one little note: I've pretty much stopped posting units. They really don't matter anyway. The record is what's important and I'll let you decide how much to risk per play.
Monday: Over - LOST (could have pushed with a FG - oh well...)
Tuesday: UNDER - LOST
Wednesday: No trend play. But, unless you were dead, you probably played CMU -17.5 with the rest of the free world (I did, but it doesn't count here because it wasn't posted)
Thursday: Rutgers -2 and Under 45 (Trend Plays)
I was on the fence about making the following plays "official." But, I decided to go ahead and do it.
I'm taking No Illinois -17 because Ball State is lacking at the QB position and I feel that the Husky defense will have a stellar night against whoever the Cards put under center. I see the Huskies sitting on a comfortable lead in the 4th. Maybe a 21-6 or 24-6 ha... [More]