WendysRox's Blog

Preparing for the 2010-2011 football season

By WendysRox | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, July 22, 2010 04:10 PM

5 comments

First of all, it's nice to see some editing tools from covers for blog entries. I hope it's possible to use these in the comments as well as the main blog entry.

Secondly, it's almost football time!!!! I had a great season last year. I'm look forward to keeping my win percentage up there where we left off last year. To recap, here's where I ended up as of January 20th, 2010:

NFL/NCAAF Past 6 weeks: 21-6-2 (78%)

NFL/NCAAF 2009: 177-137-4 (56%) (Got a little greedy in the middle of the season and bet too many games.)

2009-2010 NCAAF Bowl season: 10-3-1 (77%)

Lastly, I want to talk math. There's a thread in GD (link here) that I started in order to discuss how to use basic mathematics to become a more profitable gambler. I plan to add a few things that I've learned over the last few days into this blog entry so that I can always find them easily. It is my hope that by blogging my educational process, I can help others become more successful gamblers as well.

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WendysRox says:

07/22/10 04:57PM

And I almost forgot... TRENDS!

If you guys know me, you know that I love playing trends. I know, I know... nearly every logical thinker on this board tells me that I'm wasting my time reading things into random events, such as what day the game is played. But, I've bet most of these trends for over two seasons now, and they keep making me money. Until they start losing consistently, I'll still bet them. Besides, I think a case can be made as to "why" these trends can be explained scientifically.

So, here they are (all trends NCAAF, unless otherwise noted):

Monday: NFL over (not incredibly strong, but I'd guess over 60-65% minimum)

Tuesday: Under (must give credit to BigDaddyHPD here on covers for that one)

Wednesday: none

Thursday: Home Team and Under (unless home team is favored by 10 or more, then take Road Dog)

Friday: Road Favorite

Saturday: none

WendysRox says:

07/28/10 06:03PM

Edge: This is the advantage that you, the player, has over the bookie. The formula to calculate edge is: (odds * probability) -1. If this produces a negative number, you can stop right here. The Kelly Criterion does not suggest placing a wager where you do not have an advantage.

Kelly Stake: This is the percentage of your bankroll that the Kelly Criterion suggests for you to risk on any given wager. Most articles I've read recommend only betting a fraction of what Kelly recommends, due to the fact that calculating the probability of winning is not a factual process and, therefore, may not be correct 100% of the time. Most recommendations are to risk 50% of what Kelly suggests (a.k.a "one-half Kelly"). The formula for Kelly Stake is: (odds *probability -1) / (odds -1). You may notice that the formula for Kelly Stake is simply "edge" divided by (odds -1).

Expected Value (EV): In a nutshell, this is the expected return on your investment. For a more detailed explanation, see google. The formula for EV is: (probability * odds -1) * percentage of bankroll wagered. Again, you may notice that EV is simply "edge" multiplied by percentage of bankroll wagered.

Expected Growth (EG): This formula will show you how much your bankroll is expected to increase (or decrease), depending on your wagers. It's important to note that EG will always be less than EV. And, just because a wager has a positive EV, does not necessarily mean that it will have a positive expected impact on your bankroll. The formula for EG is: ((( 1 + (odds -1) * percentage of bankroll wagered) ^ probability * ((1-percentage of bankroll wagered) ^ (1-p))) - 1

In summary, what all of this math is supposed to do for you is to maximize your bankroll growth. Good luck with your wagers and always be learning!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Example:

Say the spread of the HOF game this year will be Dallas -2.5, hosting Cincinnati. And, by your incredible capping methods, you come up with a prediction of Cincinnati winning by 6. Now, you can do whatever calculations that you want to do in order to translate that prediction into a probability of winning versus the spread. That's the art part of sports betting - coming up with a probability of winning your wager.

Let's pretend that your calculations produce a 57% chance of Cincinnati covering a +2.5 spread. Also, let's assume that you use a local that offers you odds of -110 (or 1.91 to 1)*. Given that probability and the odds at which you place the bet, you can use the above formulas to maximize the potential of increasing your bankroll. All the time. Every time.

Edge = (.57 * 1.91) - 1 = .0887 or 8.87%

Kelly = (.57*1.91 - 1)/(1.91-1) = .0974 or 9.74% (we'll use Half Kelly, or 4.87%)

EV = ((.57 * 1.91) -1) * .0487 = .0043 or .43%

EG = ((( 1 + (1.91 -1) * .0487) ^ .57 * ((1-.0487) ^ (1-.57))) - 1 = .0032 or .32%

So, to summarize: Your edge is 8.87%. Your Half Kelly stake is 4.87%. Your EV is .86%. And, your EG is .43%. Please take a moment and let that sink in...

Say your bankroll for the season is $1000. By following these guidelines, you'd risk $48.70 on this game and expect to gain $3.20. Of course, you wouldn't gain just $3.20 on this one game. You'd either win $93.01 ($48.70 + 44.31) or you'd lose $48.70. But, over the long run, if you made a bet with these odds and probability thousands of times, you would expect to win an average of $3.20 on each bet. That begs the question, "Is four dollars and thirty cents of profit enough for me to risk nearly fifty dollars on a football game?" That's a question every gambler has to answer for himself, I suppose.

* To convert American odds to decimal odds, as long as you are getting negative odds, all you have to do is divide 100 by the odds you are getting. For example, if you are getting -110 (or laying 110 to get 100), then your decimal odds are 100/110 = 1.909090... Or, let's say your local let's you buy that hook from +2.5 to +3 for a price of -120, then you are getting 100/120, or 1.833333... Or, maybe you place a baseball bet on the favorite at -160. Then you are getting 100/160, or 1.625 odds. For odds with a positive value, simply divide the odds by 100 and add 1. For example, if you are betting a dog on the money line at +340, then your odds are 4.4 (340/100 = 3.4, then 3.4 +1 = 4.4)

WendysRox says:

08/23/10 11:51AM

Below are all of the weekday trend plays for the next couple of months (excluding Tuesday unders because lines aren't available yet).

1. 9/2/2010 7:30 PM College Football 133 Southern Mississippi* +14 -110 vs South Carolina

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

2. 9/2/2010 7:30 PM College Football 133 Southern Mississippi/South Carolina* Under 47½ -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

3. 9/2/2010 7:30 PM College Football 135 Marshall* +28½ -110 vs Ohio State

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

4. 9/2/2010 7:30 PM College Football 135 Marshall/Ohio State* Under 47 -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

5. 9/2/2010 8:00 PM College Football 138 Iowa State* -3½ -105 vs Northern Illinois

Risking $1.05 To Win $1.00

6. 9/2/2010 8:00 PM College Football 137 Northern Illinois/Iowa State* Under 46 -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

7. 9/2/2010 8:30 PM College Football 140 Utah* -3 -115 vs Pittsburgh U

Risking $1.15 To Win $1.00

8. 9/2/2010 8:30 PM College Football 139 Pittsburgh U/Utah* Under 49½ -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

9. 9/2/2010 11:00 PM College Football 142 Hawaii* +21 -110 vs USC

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

10. 9/2/2010 11:00 PM College Football 141 USC/Hawaii* Under 53 -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

11. 9/2/2010 7:30 PM College Football 144 Middle Tenn State* -2½ -110 vs Minnesota U

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

12. 9/2/2010 7:30 PM College Football 143 Minnesota U/Middle Tenn State* Under 53 -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

13. 9/2/2010 8:00 PM College Football 145 Florida Atlantic* +13 -110 vs UAB

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

14. 9/2/2010 8:00 PM College Football 145 Florida Atlantic/UAB* Under 54½ -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

15. 9/3/2010 8:00 PM College Football 147 Arizona U* -14½ -110 vs Toledo

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

16. 9/2/2010 12:30 PM College Football 153 Illinois* +13½ -110 vs Missouri

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

17. 9/2/2010 12:30 PM College Football 153 Illinois/Missouri* Under 53 -110

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

18. 9/9/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1030 Mississippi State* +5½ -110 vs Auburn

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

19. 9/10/2010 7:00 PM College Football 1031 West Virginia* -13½ -110 vs Marshall

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

20. 9/16/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1056 North Carolina State* +4 -110 vs Cincinnati U

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

21. 9/17/2010 12:00 PM College Football 1081 California* -1 -110 vs Nevada

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

22. 9/23/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1082 Pittsburgh U* +1 -110 vs Miami Florida

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

23. 9/24/2010 12:00 PM College Football 1105 TCU* -20 -110 vs SMU

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

24. 9/30/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1106 Oklahoma State* +2 -110 vs Texas A&M

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

25. 10/1/2010 8:00 PM College Football 1107 BYU* -14 -110 vs Utah State

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

26. 10/7/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1136 Kansas State* +12 -110 vs Nebraska

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

27. 10/14/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1166 West Virginia* -8½ -110 vs South Florida

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

28. 10/14/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1168 Kansas* -4 -110 vs Kansas State

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

29. 10/15/2010 8:00 PM College Football 1169 Cincinnati U* -9½ -110 vs Louisville

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

30. 10/21/2010 9:00 PM College Football 1193 UCLA* +14 -110 vs Oregon

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

31. 10/28/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1222 North Carolina State* +9 -110 vs Florida State

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

32. 10/29/2010 8:00 PM College Football 1223 West Virginia* -1 -110 vs Connecticut

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

33. 11/4/2010 7:30 PM College Football 1258 Virginia Tech* -6 -110 vs Georgia Tech

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

34. 11/12/2010 12:00 PM College Football 1315 Boise State* -24 -110 vs Idaho

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

35. 11/18/2010 8:00 PM College Football 1316 Washington* -5 -110 vs UCLA

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

36. 11/18/2010 10:00 PM College Football 1318 UNLV* +6 -110 vs Air Force

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

37. 11/25/2010 8:00 PM College Football 1347 Texas A&M* +15½ -110 vs Texas

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

38. 11/26/2010 10:15 PM College Football 1353 Boise State* -9 -110 vs Nevada

Risking $1.10 To Win $1.00

WendysRox says:

08/23/10 02:24PM

If you haven't been following my plays on Twitter, you missed a 7-2 weekend... To join, just text "follow wendysrox" to 40404. If you have any trouble, just send me PM.

Here's what I released on twitter last week:

* Inbox

* Sent

* Retweets by others

* Retweets by you

* Your tweets, retweeted

Trend Info

1. Wendys Rox WendysRox

with GB and SF winning, that's an awesome 7-2 weekend! See you Thursday! about 5 hours ago via web

* Delete

2. Wendys Rox WendysRox

5-2 night with GB pending. I'm thankful for hitting Pitt since I personally had my largest bet of the season on them. GL! 1:01 AM Aug 22nd via web

* Delete

3. Wendys Rox WendysRox

small plays: Dal, Hou, GB... very small plays: TB, Chi, Det, SF. These are just "action" plays to make the games a little more interesting. 3:46 PM Aug 21st via web

WendysRox says:

08/23/10 02:25PM

oh.. forgot this one mentioning pitt as the possible best game of the entire preseason this year!

WendysRox

Take pitt as quick as you can before the line changes any more. I'm also on the under for a little change. This has the makings of NFLX GOY 3:05 PM Aug 21st via web

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User:	WendysRox
Joined:	April 2008
Location:	Tennessee
Team:	Tennessee Volunteers
Occupation:	Sales/Marketing

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