Whodeysb09's Blog

Extremely Early CFB Leans

By Whodeysb09 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, August 10, 2009 09:18 AM   21 comments
I started looking at the games really hard for the past couple of days.  Early leans so far..

Thursday Night...

North Carolina St -3.5
Boise State -4.5

Saturday

Washington +14
Oklahoma State -4.5
Western Michigan +11
Virginia Tech +4
Illinois -5
UAB +2
Ohio +6 - UCONN lost a lot.

Notre Dame -17 - My early thoughts on this game were that Nevada would keep it close.  The more and more I look at matchups this game has blowout written all over it.  Notre Dame will load up 8 in the box and blitz the hell out of Kapernick.  They will force him to use the arm to beat them in my opinion.  Tate, Floyd, and Rudolph should dominate the secondary.  If the running game is decent this week Irish could win by 24+.  Probably won't bet this game, because it is week 1 and I'm really not sure what to expect.  I would recommend staying away from this game, as of now. 


Lookin for better lines on some games

Florida Atlantic +20, although history tells me no.
California -17
Kentucky -14
Troy -3, Really like this game, almost seems too good to be true.  So I'm going to really look into this game.

Again these are really early leans.  I could end up not betting any of these above but right now this is what I like.   Backing 3 MAC teams early
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DoubleUp4Life says:
08/10/09 09:19AM

Troy won't even be in the Top 2 bet Games on Thursday Night ...

Plenty of people will overlook this game as the SunBelt and MAC are not worth of a bet for most

Whodeysb09 says:
08/10/09 09:21AM

 

Thanks for coming around, a few of these games the lines that were released from the Greek changed my perspective on a few.  Ohio is now only getting 2.5,  UAB is now a 3.5 point favorite.   I have already decided that I'm going to probably stay away from the Bowling Green/Troy matchup.  I'm starting to like Utah State on Thursday night.   Notre Dame at 11.5 is very appealing. 

Whodeysb09 says:
08/10/09 10:54AM
Updated Leans with lines from the greek.

Notre Dame -11.5 really, I told myself I would load up if the line was 14 or less.

Washington +16

Virginia Tech +6

Colorado -11

Illinois -5.5

Western Michigan +9.5 (want a better line)

Utah State +22.5

Oklahoma State -6

nostradamus12 says:
08/10/09 11:54AM
whodey - was tempted to take ND around 11.5 or over 57.5, taking a closer look at that one today and play one or the other, or even small correlated parlay figuring if ND gets 40-45 both cover and over are likely. I'm skeptical on UConn new offense even though have them at -2.5 (-115). BOL
Whodeysb09 says:
08/10/09 02:43PM

UCONN is going to run that spread no huddle type offense this season, I'm sort of taking a look at the over in that game.  I don't really like Ohio at 2.5, I was on them at 6.  I really think that Ohio is going to win the game. Good luck this year.  I'm sure many discussions are to come this season.

 

Notre Dame at 11.5 is a gift in my opinion.  I don't see them laying an egg and just don't see how Nevada's secondary is going to hold up against all of our weapons.  I think they force Kapernick to beat them with his arm rather than his feet.  I think the blitz packages Tenuta will throw at him will confuse him early and often.  I'm starting to see a rout coming.  Clausen should destroy there secondary, as long as the offensive line gives him time to throw.  We have all seen what he can do when he has time.

imgoinhungry says:
08/10/09 06:44PM
Good stuff. It will be interesting to see how much the lines move.
Whodeysb09 says:
08/10/09 07:08PM

Thanks for stopping by Thorpe.  Look for some of your insight all season long.  Always good information when you post thanks a lot.

Whodeysb09 says:
08/10/09 07:11PM
I really don't like locking in bets this early, because teams have barely started practicing.  I'm very close to locking in just one bet though.  I really like Oklahoma State to handle Georgia, just not to sure I'm ready to start betting on some of these games yet. 

 

Anybody give me a good argument to not take Oklahoma State here, haven't seen a good one yet.

johnnyr41 says:
08/10/09 11:37PM
Do not know the odds yet, but I am seeing a cover for Rutgers over Cincinatti. Anyone else?
Whodeysb09 says:
08/11/09 09:47AM
Johnnyr - I kinda like Rutgers as well. Since that game is on Sunday I haven't really looked much into that game. I'm seeing Rutgers -5.5 right now
Whodeysb09 says:
08/11/09 09:54AM
Updated List of Leans:

 

Washington +16 - Looking for a better line in this one.  Really wanting 17+

 

Notre Dame -13.5

Eastern Michigan -5 (New look)

Western Michigan +12

Rutgers -5.5

Oklahoma State -5.5

Virginia Tech +5 (will be looking at a ML bet as well)

Utah State +22

North Texas +17.5

Colorado -11

 

I will have a writeup for 1 game a week, most likely will be the biggest game I will bet on the weekend. 

 

My rankings of games will be graded based on a 4 unit scale. 

Thats all for now

Ice4Blood says:
08/11/09 01:03PM

as someone who has been plugging Ok St since i saw this game on the week 1 schedule, let me be the first to give you an argument against betting on them...

oddsmakers put up a really fucking sharp line (-6)... that is the only argument against it... i thought this line would be 3 or less, what will all of the ridiculous love UGA gets at the start of every football season...

i still think OSU will cover, but if i'm going to bet it, i'm gonna wait for the SEC train to start pounding Georgia and hope i can get OSU at (-4)...

Whodeysb09 says:
08/11/09 01:09PM

That is a pretty damn sharp line at 6.  I think OSU covers obviously as well.  4 would be a nice line.  Still not a good argument not to bet Okie St.  When I put out a writeup for this game it will make more sense. 

Whodeysb09 says:
08/13/09 01:15AM
Updated list:

Washington +16
Penn St -27 

Notre Dame -13.5

Eastern Michigan -5

Western Michigan +12

Rutgers -5.5
Toledo +13

Oklahoma State -5.5

Utah State +22

North Texas +17.5




I'm not messing with totals probably for a couple of weeks.








Ice4Blood says:
08/13/09 02:09AM

i never said it was a good argument... just the only argument i can come up with...

i have no doubt that Ok St will win the game...

Whodeysb09 says:
08/13/09 06:56AM


Ok gotcha, sorry for misunderstanding.  Yeah I don't have very many doubts they don't handle business. 
DoubleUp4Life says:
08/13/09 10:28AM
Sorry Brother ... I messed up ...

didnt realize I didnt comment in here

 

Troy and Kentucky really jump out at me ... Both should win by 10+ points over the spread ... I have both of their Foes Bowling Green and Miami Ohio in the toliet of the MAC....

 

Ohio and NC St. are the 2 other off your list I am leaning on .. I was hoping for 6+ with the Bobcats and that still might happen..

NC St. should be fired up from some revenge and I am really down on SC this year Predicting 4-8 or worse....

 

I think your Irish might Pound Nevada but I am staying away ... Maybe the Over is worth a look ....

 

BOL all season Brother and thanks alot for all your Help during the offseason

 

 

 

 

 

Whodeysb09 says:
08/13/09 10:39AM
Its no big deal Double.  Thanks for all your help this offseason as well.  I'm really starting to get away from a lot of the games you mentioned though.  Notre Dame is gonna smack Nevada in my opinion.  You shouldn't miss out.  I can understand your concern though.  Here is my updated list of leans, in no particular order.  Best of luck this season brother.

Updated list:

Washington +16
Penn St -27 

Notre Dame -13.5

Eastern Michigan -5

Western Michigan +12

Rutgers -5.5
Toledo +13

Oklahoma State -5.5

Utah State +22

North Texas +17.5

Whodeysb09 says:
08/13/09 07:55PM
Updated List

Adding:
San Diego State +17.5

Washington +16
Penn St -27 

Notre Dame -13.5

Eastern Michigan -5

Western Michigan +12
Toledo +13

Oklahoma State -5.5

North Texas +17.5

Still no official bets for me just yet.  Still looking at more games at the moment.  I have several games I have yet to get to. 



Fonz says:
08/13/09 08:34PM
What do you think about Navy and the points at Ohio State. OSU lost alot of offense and Navy's been a good road dog the last few years. Plus OSU gotta be looking at USC on deck. GL this season.
Whodeysb09 says:
08/15/09 12:17PM
Fonz- Yeah classic look ahead spot for the Buckeyes here. I just don't like the line personally. Just one of those lines I looked at and immeadiately decided to pass. If I had to go anything I'd lay the chalk with OSU. They usually dominate mediocre teams, and struggle with the cream of the crop. The look a head is definitely there though. Good luck in whatever you decide, I'll probably stay away.
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User: Whodeysb09
Joined: September 2007
Location: Ohio
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
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