abnormality's Blog

{ My sides for Tuesday } *with writeups*

By abnormality | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, September 01, 2009 02:56 PM   10 comments
Haven't posted a play thread in a while, but I am finally putting plays in wagerline daily now for the hell of it, and also still posting in WBA's play of the day thread.

Here's who I've decided to put my money on tonight:


Cubs RL -1.5 +110 3UNITS

Now, 95% of the time it's a lose/lose situation to bet on the Cubs. They are by far the most overrated team by the linemakers for about the whole season, and they are still getting away with it by the stupid public and supposed smart bettors who think "line is got to be that high for a reason...", playing as just another bitch to the line.

But here we go, Houston actually have been worse than the Cubs lately, and the Cubs are playing better than they were a couple weeks ago. Moehler is no Oswalt, and Wells is the Cubs ace in my book. And the first thing you look for in an ace, is if they just had a shaky outing their last game... which means Wells will have great desire to perform to his standards this game.

Cubs usually don't have desire, but when they can get it from anything or anyone on their team, they easily win games like this one...


Rockies RL -1.5 -115 3UNITS

Rockies are extremely hungry right now to vent their anger and beat the living crap out of some gimpy bums right about now........

Pelfrey is a proven clown on the road, now he's welcomed to Coors field! La Rosa has been decent these last couple months. Sure I'm laying a bit of juice here on a team on a huge losing streak, but come on now, what better spot do you need?


Indians +185 1UNIT

Great value here. The Tigers just finished playing decent ball against the Angels and Rays, but they won't find that same competitiveness in themselves, going up against the Tribe. Will they go back to playing down like they did just before against the A's...

Too put it simply, as long as Carrasco has a bit of composure during his first MLB start, this is an easy spot for an Indians win. They can hit Jackson and the Tigers pen well enough to take this line.


Brewers +175 1UNIT

Ok, Looper still has been...meh... lately, but Pineiro's godlike WHIP also has been a bit shaky lately, when you consider the weak offenses he's been facing.

Brewers have a bit a confidence going, believe it or not, and they want to trade off their 3 game losing streak for a 4 game win streak right here with a win tonight.

Main reason for this play, is I love to fade teams that just won 8 of their last 10 games...it's proven profit in the long run as long as the opponents have great value like this.



Good luck everyone



10 comments
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Jim_Tressel says:
09/01/09 02:59PM



you are betting on a spot where the team you're backing hasn't scored a run off the opposing pitcher in 20 innings (3 games).
abnormality says:
09/01/09 03:22PM


If you are talking about the Rockies, look at the pitching they had to face lately.

Weird analogy, but hitting on those pitchers is like trying to breath underwater, but now with the Mets they finally get their oxygen mask. They'll feel like "man, why the hell was this so fricken hard before, this is just too damn easy"... Are you thinking the Rocks will continue to slump indefinitely?

This is what I mean by a "perfect spot", its completely unrelated, if not almost the opposite of riding a streak or stat. Say if instead, the Rocks beat the crap out of the Dodgers and the Giants, then maybe I could see a letdown spot here against a lowly Mets team... but in this instance, this is the Rocks spot.

White Sox are in a decent spot too, but not as good as the Rocks. They also aren't at home and aren't a proven enough runline team.
abnormality says:
09/01/09 03:25PM
and if you are talking about Pelfrey shutting down the Rockies 20 straight innings.... MY GOD, this bet looks even better
Jim_Tressel says:
09/01/09 03:27PM
well either way LOVE the avatar 
JD232 says:
09/01/09 03:30PM
With you on the Rockies!
target_9 says:
09/01/09 04:08PM
GL today!!!!
runlagos says:
09/01/09 04:15PM
ab

 

 

go rockies

Busch says:
09/01/09 04:41PM
Thank you for your writeups, I like to read as many opinions on the games as possible, so for me, if someone just write down their picks, it has like no value for me.

Good Luck
abnormality says:
09/01/09 06:35PM
Tressel, JD, target, runlagos, Busch



Adding a parlay:



2 team parlay
1 UNIT to win 1.75


RedSox -154

WhiteSox -150


I simply can't trust either of these teams to cover a runline, but I'm pretty confident enough that both of these teams end up with a W tonight. I think the juicy lines might tempt people to take the runline on both of these, but I'm thinking at least one of them, if not both, will only end up winning by one.

Twins, like the Cards, are entering that "winning 8 of last 10" phase again I like to fade when teams just enter that zone, teams tend to let offer a let down game at this point.

Danks is a pitcher I can trust that can lift the spirits of a team in such a rut as the WhiteSox are in right now. Add to the fact he's been just solid on the road. Going up against a MLB debut starter with Danks on the mound, is just what the WhiteSox need right now...

As for the RedSox, well maybe I'll admit this is a bit of a Sonnanstine fade. He's been consistently below average to somewhat lousy in his career so far...If he comes out strong tonight against the somewhat hot Sox bats, call me suprised.

And Lester has had a lot of Road assignments lately, and he's been rock solid each and every time, not to mention he's just been having a consistently great all around year. His season WHIP of 1.23 is spectacular, for being in the American League.







zizou_100 says:
09/01/09 06:39PM
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