Posted Saturday, January 03, 2009 08:44 AM
I’ve really enjoyed Covers for the past year or so, and my winning percentage has been higher than ever, perhaps as a result of the insight gleamed from these pages, or perhaps I’ve just been lucky. I thought I’d try to condense my philosophy into a few paragraphs, to give back to the community, and encourage some civil discussion. Putting it down on paper is good for the thought processes, even if my wisdom based on close to forty years of experience just boils down to some classic maxims we all know so well.
You can’t Einstein the game. The football takes strange bounces. It’s a game of inches. The difference between a win and a loss often comes down to an event that is almost as random as whether the roulette ball drops into red or black. The tipped pass, the broken tackle, the fourth and one that makes it or not by an inch, the big punt return or the dropped pass in the end zone could all go either way. Any bet is a gamble, meaning the outcome is unknown. There are no sure things or locks.
Granted, a strong team will probably prevail over a weak team. Enter the spread. Now we don’t have to predict who will win, but by how much. Vegas doesn’t care who wins. They want a balanced book, with a guaranteed 10% profit. If you could get 10% a day on your bankroll, you would soon be rich, so why would you gamble? Line moves are the result of money coming in on one side or the other, with the book making an adjustment to keep his accounts even. If the money moves ... [More]