adam071's Blog

Cincy @ NCST

By adam071 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, September 12, 2010 11:10 PM   22 comments
Line is at NCST +1.5 right now and I am seeing a lot of people here on NCST, but I like Cincy in this spot.  Like to get some discussion going

I had NCST last week against UCF and watched the whole game.  They seem to be getting the running game going and Wilson is still Wilson, so they were solid.  Defense looked good until Godfrey came into the game and almost brought UCF back.  While Calabrese was the better passer of the two, Godfrey moved around and gave NCST fits with his legs and really got UCF going.  NCST got 5 turnovers in that game, only won by 7 points, and UCF had a good shot at tying that game up.  Again, the NCST defense seemed to struggle with the mobile QB in Godfrey.

So I look at Cincy who has a good mobile QB in Collaros and much better passing weapons than UCF in Woods and Binns.  Defense is still suspect though.  With that said, Collaros will move around and give that NCST defense fits and I think it maybe enough to outscore NCST. 
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PlacinUnits says:
09/12/10 11:12PM
I'm a homer, but don't give much respect to UC this year.  With that said, I agree with you and I think we will see UC as a dog by game time, and I will be happy to take the points.

BigRedGambler says:
09/12/10 11:19PM
I'm waiting to see the line move on this one. I think the line will move in Cincy's favor come 6:00 pm thursday night. NC State is a Thursday night home dog. The public perception is Thursday night home dogs cover and this will push the spread in Cincy's favor come game time. I'm hoping to get Cincy at +2 and I'll buy 1 point to make it 3.


I'm with you on Cincy brother. 
Professional1 says:
09/12/10 11:20PM
Cincy was -4 2 weeks ago so some nice line value based on how the teams have performed versus how they were expected to perform.
adam071 says:
09/12/10 11:23PM


I see the same thing and am waiting until later thurs to make my play as well
adam071 says:
09/13/10 10:17PM
Cincy +2 on my book now.  Still waiting
bracks says:
09/13/10 10:56PM
I don't like Cincy d in the spot at all. I am not saying Zack won't put pts up on the board, but I grabbed it at NCST -1 cause I like the pack to get it done at home here.

I agree, if you like Cincy, wait till kick off, cause +3 is coming
nc1capper says:
09/13/10 11:01PM
 thats a lot of figurin there fella
adam071 says:
09/13/10 11:52PM


He is right though, the line was pushed to +2.  May move higher
adam071 says:
09/13/10 11:56PM


Why NCST?  I really am looking for someone to explain why and good discussion really.  I watched both NCST first games and Cincy's game against Fresno.  NCST loses to UCF if Godfrey plays that entire game, or if they do not turn the ball over 5 times and NCST never turned it over and ran well.  I think Cincy is better than UCF, Zack is better than Godfrey, and Zack has better weapons.  NCST seemed to not be able to handle a running QB making plays.  Cincy bit me in the ass week 1, so looking for a reason I am wrong here, but don't see it yet. 

What do you think gives NCST the edge here to pull it off?
bettor2win says:
09/13/10 11:58PM

Takin Cincy. They will come around I believe.

bracks says:
09/14/10 12:21AM
Why is the loss to Fresno not a bad one?

I think Zack "might" not be as good as his 4-5 games last yr. I just also think Kelly leaving was going to hurt this offense.

How about Fresno took awhile to get it going vs. Cincy. You saw the game, (I bet them once it went to +3 as well). I am just giving these reasons, not saying you didn't see it.

Cincy D gave 247 to a Fresno team I don't think throws as well as Wilson.

They had a stretch of 20+ mins n which they had -6 total yrds.

They ran for a total of 15yrds.

So, IF they have a lead, they can't keep it by running and getting a better TOP. IF they go down, I don't think they can come back.

Also, I am a big HFA on Thr/Fri night games in college. I say its at least +1.5 pts. If last weeks game was on Sat afternoon, I would have played Aub up to -5. That game was closer IMO cause its the late night atmosphere. I think NCST has been getting no love, and still can't believe they were getting +5 to start last week. I think a lot of the movement early is the HUGE love of home dogs on Thur night. I grabbed it at -1, cause I think all the value is on them.
adam071 says:
09/14/10 12:27AM
I usually love home dogs on Thursday night as well, which is why this caught me off guard.  I did see Cincy D give up yards, but I also saw NCST give it up to UCF once they had  running QB in the game making plays.

Fresno def took a bit to get it going and when they did they played well on offense and shut Cincy down.  I see that, but I also saw NCST last week and it just didn't do much for me as well and I love Russel Wilson. 

I agree losing Kelly hurts, but Jones is a heck of a coach as well.  I am not sure Fresno isn't better than people give them credit for, and allowing one loss to change my opinion of a matchup has bit me in the ass too many times.

Appreciate the insight and discussion.  Finally some good stuff
BigRedGambler says:
09/14/10 12:29AM
Adam I'm thinking this line might hit 3.5
bracks says:
09/14/10 12:35AM
adam- I don't want to say Fresno isn't good, or that playing there isn't tough. I just think the wolfpack crowd will be crazy, ad it seems Cincy had a gift of a 14-0 lead and a team that isn't as powerful and got 28 straight put on them.

i think they will play a lil more close ot the vest in this one to start, and the main problem with that, is they can't run. If the pack bring some heat, it might be a long day
BigRedGambler says:
09/14/10 01:06AM
Watch the QB for Cincy cut looooooooose! Butch Jones knows he's going to have to let the kid play freely to win this one. In my opinion you will see a much better Cincy team than we did in week 1. Just my opinion.
Zander47 says:
09/14/10 01:33AM
Cincy gets it going i think. Maybe a shootout 2
Messier-11 says:
09/14/10 01:59AM
love nc st in this spot
adam071 says:
09/14/10 07:14PM


I can't see it hitting 3.5
adam071 says:
09/14/10 07:16PM


I don't think Butch will play it close to the vest because that just has never been his style.  They come out and try to exploit the NCST weakness they saw in the UCF game last week.  Move Zack around and let him make plays with his legs and arm.

I think its close, but I see a SU win for Cincy, so I will gladly take points.
gkastanza says:
09/14/10 07:19PM
BOL 
WestHamUnited says:
09/14/10 08:05PM

Homefield could really get to Collaros, I ddint like waht I saw out of him against Fresno when the going got tough.  Dont think he can play well @ NCST if they fall behind.

 

Tough call, Ill be taking Cinci but I dunno how confident I will be come Thurs.

 

Homefield could be huge here so Im nervous.  Also a miserable coaching job by Butch Jones I dont think he is too different than Kelley but he is definitely a step down, Im scared to bet against CMU this weekend because I think the new coach is better than him.

 

But Im a Big East man and I hate the ACC so Ill have something on the Natti.

2169 says:
09/14/10 08:46PM
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