McLovin's Card --- NCAAF Week 11

Alright, last week was okay.  Went 6-5 (+1.1 Units) and hit my two big plays (Arizona and K-State/Alabama teaser) ...

Current YTD:  19-19  (-4.6 Units)

Let's get after it in Week 11! ...

OREGON -17  (3 Units)

Arizona St. has lost 3 straight games and are starting their freshman QB for the first time ... oh yeah, and it's at Autzen Stadium.  The Sun Devils offense is non-existent and Oregon continues to put huge yardage and point totals on the board.  The Ducks were in a tough spot last week against Stanford, but they bounce back in a big way.  The energy of Autzen and the Masoli/James duo overwhelm the Sun Devils.

HAWAII -19   (3 Units)

Hawaii looked dead after getting smoked by Boise.  However, they went toe-to-toe with Nevada on the road, then came home and waxed Utah St. (almost 700 yards of offense).  QB Moniz has the offense clicking, and the running game is picking up (480 yards last 2 weeks).  Meanwhile, New Mexico St. has lost 4 out of 5 with the average loss at 40-7.  Hawaii drops 40+ again and cruises here.

New England Rolls Miami this Sunday

I understand the line looks mighty tempting at 10.5 for the Dolphins, but Miami is in a bad spot in this one.

After getting outgained by almost 300 yards by the Jets last week (fluky win), they have to travel back up North to face a Patriots team coming off a bye?  Henne was a total non-factor in his first road start, Miami carried 23 times for 52 yarrds, but Miami had two KO Ret and a Fumble Ret for TD's ...

Unless Miami can get at least two non-offensive TD's (again), Brady and Co. will just carve them up all day long.

Patriots 38 - Dolphins 17

McLovin's NCAAF Card --- Week 10!

Tough week ... 2-5 (-6.8 Units)     I knew I was in trouble when Nebraska couldn't cover when they didn't allow an offensive TD. 

YTD: 13-14 (-5.7 Units)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC -1   (2 Units)  SAN DIEGO STATE -16   (2 Units)   UNLV +35   (2 Units)   TEXAS TECH -6.5   NEBRASKA -13   UTEP -7   TEMPLE +7 

Time to bounce back big!  Starting with ...

ECU +13 (2 Units)

Too many points to be giving a solid ECU team at home.  Pinkney is a veteran QB who already has a win against VT under his belt (on the road) and the Pirate crowd will be jacked up for this Thursday night national TV game. 

McLovin' ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger! 

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McLovin's Card ---- NCAA Week 9

Let's get after it.  11-9 on posted plays this year (+1.1 units)

Superbad quote to get us started ...

Evan: Why were you smoking cigarettes with those cops?

McLovin: Because I f---ing rule?

First plays, more to come ...

FLORIDA ATLANTIC -1     (2 Units)

It's that time again.  Time for FAU's annual push for a bowl game.  They just rolled up 624 yards of offense on the road against a decent Sun Belt team (ULL) and Rusty Smith is looking to roll in FAU's first home game in a month.  FAU came out of their bye week with two straight road victories with Smith avg 330 ypg and a 7-0 ratio.

SAN DIEGO STATE -16   (2 Units)

The Aztec offense came off their bye with two impressive offensive performances.  Lindley went for 298 and a 3-1 ratio against BYU, then carved up Colorado St. with 460 yards and a 6-0 ratio!  Add all this to the fact that New Mexico blows and ... you have a 2 unit play.

UNLV +35   (2 Units)

Too many points.  TCU hasn't scored more than 44 points in a game against a D1-A team this year.  UNLV's offense is good enough to put 13-17 points on the board, which should be enough to cover a 5 td spread.  The Runnin' Rebels are making progress each game.

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McLovin's NCAAF System Plays --- Week 8

I'm curently working on a system to pick out certain college games.  I've tweaked the Dudley total yards per point method and I've added a Sagarin Ratings strength of schedule formula to the mix.   I tried it out this past weekend for the first time, but I was only able to apply it to half the games because I didn't finish it until Thursday night. The system gave out 5 plays for the games I applied it to last week:   Ohio St. 28 - Purdue 21 ----- PLAY PURDUE +14 (Winner) BYU 34 - San Diego St. 27 ---- PLAY SDSU +17 (Winner) USC 27 - Notre Dame 23 ---- PLAY NOTRE DAME +10 (Winner) West Virginia 30 - Marshall - 20 --- PLAY MARSHALL +20 (Winner) Florida 34 - Arkansas 21 --- PLAY ARKANSAS +25 (Winner)   I'll be honest.  There were a couple things that bothered me about the system I am working with.  First, it gave out only underdogs.  The vast majority of the games were right around the line, but I was hoping to see a couple favorites in the mix.  Second, I didn't like many of the plays listed above!   However, it went 5-0 last week, so I figured I'd actually post the plays on covers just to have a record of it going forward.  I'm hoping to see more of a mix going forward because I'm still a bit nervous that my system is skewed towards the underdog.   With that being said, I will be posting the system plays here and updating the card until Wednesday (when I should be done with all the games)  Thanks! ... [More]

Split Title?

***** McLovin's NCAAF Week 15 Card $$$$ *****

Well, last week started off looking so good with early wins on Ole Miss, Pitt, Temple, and Rice ... but then the roof came crashing down!     UTEP, New Mexico St., LSU (on the last play), Nebraska, TT, Mizzou ...   Oh well, that's why God created championship week and bowl games!    Anyways, here is the opening play for my Week 15 card.  I'll update as I lock them in.    As always, thoughts and comments are appreciated!   USC -30.5   Statistically speaking, this is Pete Carrol's best team.  It's his best defensive team, third best offensive team, and biggest point differential.  The only question with the matchup against UCLA is how many points the Trojan D/ST will score.  I do like UCLA's defense, but the Bruin offense will not stay on the field (maybe 150 yards??) and will continually put the D in holes all game long ...   USC  45     UCLA  3   Also, leans on:   Alabama +10 Oklahoma -16.5 Cal -33.5 Pitt +2.5 Va. Tech.  +1 West Virginia -7   GL, everyone!  Thoughts and commens are welcome!    McLovin' ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger ... [More]

***** McLovin's NCAAF Card - Week 14 $$$$ ******

Alright, alright, alright.  Time to get down to business.    You can check out my card from last week here.  I tried to get creative with the teasers and parlays and it bit me in the ass (down 1.6 units for the week)!   Gonna play it straight this week.  Here are my leans for Week 14.  I'll post the writeups and selections as I lock them in.  As always, comments and thoughts are welcome!    Week 14 Leans:   Pitt +3.5 Ole Miss -15 Temple -2.5 UTEP +5.5 LSU -4.5 Nebraska -17 Va. Tech. -8 Mizzou -14 Nevada -4 New Mexico St. +6 Tex Tech -21 Rice +3   Any comments and thoughts are welcome!   McLovin ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger!  ... [More]

***** McLovin's Exotic Plays for Saturday!!! $$$$$ *****

I don't usually play many teasers or parlays, but I thought it would be fun to have a Saturday card with all exotic bets!  Write-ups will follow, along with a small card of straight bets for games not already included.  HERE WE GO ....   Teaser (1.4 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) --- NEW MEXICO ST. +14.5 OREGON ST. +10.5   Teaser (1.2 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) --- OLE MISS +12 FLA. ATL. +11.5   Teaser (1.2 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) --- CAL -2.5 RICE -2   Parlay (.5 UNITS to WIN 3 UNITS) --- UTEP +15.5 NOTRE DAME -20 TULSA -29   Parlay (.5 UNITS to WIN 3 UNITS) --- TEXAS TECH +7 PURDUE -12.5 OHIO ST. -20.5   McLovin ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger     ... [More]