McLovin's Card ---- NCAA Week 9

Let's get after it.  11-9 on posted plays this year (+1.1 units)

Superbad quote to get us started ...

Evan: Why were you smoking cigarettes with those cops?

McLovin: Because I f---ing rule?

First plays, more to come ...

FLORIDA ATLANTIC -1     (2 Units)

It's that time again.  Time for FAU's annual push for a bowl game.  They just rolled up 624 yards of offense on the road against a decent Sun Belt team (ULL) and Rusty Smith is looking to roll in FAU's first home game in a month.  FAU came out of their bye week with two straight road victories with Smith avg 330 ypg and a 7-0 ratio.

SAN DIEGO STATE -16   (2 Units)

The Aztec offense came off their bye with two impressive offensive performances.  Lindley went for 298 and a 3-1 ratio against BYU, then carved up Colorado St. with 460 yards and a 6-0 ratio!  Add all this to the fact that New Mexico blows and ... you have a 2 unit play.

UNLV +35   (2 Units)

Too many points.  TCU hasn't scored more than 44 points in a game against a D1-A team this year.  UNLV's offense is good enough to put 13-17 points on the board, which should be enough to cover a 5 td spread.  The Runnin' Rebels are making progress each game.

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McLovin's NCAAF System Plays --- Week 8

I'm curently working on a system to pick out certain college games.  I've tweaked the Dudley total yards per point method and I've added a Sagarin Ratings strength of schedule formula to the mix.   I tried it out this past weekend for the first time, but I was only able to apply it to half the games because I didn't finish it until Thursday night. The system gave out 5 plays for the games I applied it to last week:   Ohio St. 28 - Purdue 21 ----- PLAY PURDUE +14 (Winner) BYU 34 - San Diego St. 27 ---- PLAY SDSU +17 (Winner) USC 27 - Notre Dame 23 ---- PLAY NOTRE DAME +10 (Winner) West Virginia 30 - Marshall - 20 --- PLAY MARSHALL +20 (Winner) Florida 34 - Arkansas 21 --- PLAY ARKANSAS +25 (Winner)   I'll be honest.  There were a couple things that bothered me about the system I am working with.  First, it gave out only underdogs.  The vast majority of the games were right around the line, but I was hoping to see a couple favorites in the mix.  Second, I didn't like many of the plays listed above!   However, it went 5-0 last week, so I figured I'd actually post the plays on covers just to have a record of it going forward.  I'm hoping to see more of a mix going forward because I'm still a bit nervous that my system is skewed towards the underdog.   With that being said, I will be posting the system plays here and updating the card until Wednesday (when I should be done with all the games)  Thanks! ... [More]