alwayson22's Blog

McLovin's NCAAF System Plays --- Week 8

By alwayson22 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 19, 2009 11:59 AM

47 comments

I'm curently working on a system to pick out certain college games. I've tweaked the Dudley total yards per point method and I've added a Sagarin Ratings strength of schedule formula to the mix.

I tried it out this past weekend for the first time, but I was only able to apply it to half the games because I didn't finish it until Thursday night. The system gave out 5 plays for the games I applied it to last week:

Ohio St. 28 - Purdue 21 ----- PLAY PURDUE +14 (Winner)

BYU 34 - San Diego St. 27 ---- PLAY SDSU +17 (Winner)

USC 27 - Notre Dame 23 ---- PLAY NOTRE DAME +10 (Winner)

West Virginia 30 - Marshall - 20 --- PLAY MARSHALL +20 (Winner)

Florida 34 - Arkansas 21 --- PLAY ARKANSAS +25 (Winner)

I'll be honest. There were a couple things that bothered me about the system I am working with. First, it gave out only underdogs. The vast majority of the games were right around the line, but I was hoping to see a couple favorites in the mix. Second, I didn't like many of the plays listed above!

However, it went 5-0 last week, so I figured I'd actually post the plays on covers just to have a record of it going forward. I'm hoping to see more of a mix going forward because I'm still a bit nervous that my system is skewed towards the underdog.

With that being said, I will be posting the system plays here and updating the card until Wednesday (when I should be done with all the games) Thanks!

First plays for Week 8:

Oklahoma St. 30 - Baylor 27 ---- PLAY BAYLOR +10

Miami FL 27 - Clemson 26 ---- PLAY CLEMSON +7

Ohio St. 27 - Minnesota 17 ---- PLAY MINNESOTA +18

Once again, it looks slanted towards the dogs. I'll continue to post over the next 48 hours as I have only completed about 33% of the games for the week. NOTE: I will NOT be tailing any of these plays myself until a decent track record of barking 'dogs has been established!

BOL!

McLovin' ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger!

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phancard says:

10/19/09 12:04PM

Good luck with the system and plays. Liking Clemson ..

topperchris says:

10/19/09 01:17PM

I like Minny... Please keep me updated on the plays it shoots out...Thank You McLovin

alwayson22 says:

10/19/09 05:59PM

Thanks, Phancard.

I like the yards per point system in general because it can shed some light on how efficient teams are on both sides of the ball. Take Notre Dame and USC, for example. The Irish have one of the most efficient offenses in the country. USC, however, is middle of the pack in terms of efficiency on offense. USC had over 500 yards and 34 points, which is right in line with their yards per point coming in. Notre Dame, before the last drive, had 27 points and 290 yards of offense, which was also right in line with their prior performances.

alwayson22 says:

10/19/09 06:20PM

Adding ...

Navy 31 - Wake Forest 24 ---- PLAY NAVY -3

Chief-Starks says:

10/19/09 06:27PM

I like Minnesota. Ohio ST shouldnt be favored by 17 over anyone lol..also leaning Navy. Reviewing the others BOL I'll keep my eye on this system

alwayson22 says:

10/19/09 06:41PM

Thanks for the input, Chief-Starks ... I think Minnesota covers the 18 as long as they don't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties.

Adding ...

Notre Dame 30 - Boston College 27 ---- PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE +9

capskip says:

10/19/09 06:48PM

Realy appreciate someone who puts time in how they pick there games.Clemson is a play with the points.Thanks Alwayson22 .Keep up the good work.GL

alwayson22 says:

10/19/09 07:09PM

Adding two more ...

Alabama 23 - Tennessee 13 ---- PLAY TENNESSEE +17

Nevada 31 - Idaho 30 ---- PLAY IDAHO +13.5

alwayson22 says:

10/19/09 07:39PM

Adding a few more ...

Michigan 27 - Penn St. 26 ---- PLAY MICHIGAN +4.5

Oklahoma 28 - Kansas 27 ---- PLAY KANSAS +7.5

Kentucky 30 - UL-Monroe 24 ---- PLAY UL-MONROE +17

Houston 37 - SMU 27 ---- PLAY SMU +17

alwayson22 says:

10/19/09 07:41PM

Current Card:

Baylor +10

Clemson +7

Minnesota +18

Navy -3

Boston College +9

Tennessee +17

Idaho +13.5

Michigan +4.5

Kansas +7.5

UL-Monroe +17

SMU +17

capskip says:

10/20/09 10:41AM

Teams of your picks i have come up with.BAYLOR,TENNESSEE,MICHIGAN,KANSAS,IDAHO.GL

Pepsimansd says:

10/20/09 04:24PM

Could you please list the website that you use to

access the Dudley's yards per point. And was

wondering is that def. or offense? Thanks man

keep up the good work!!!!

alwayson22 says:

10/21/09 10:11PM

Pepsi,

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/nfl/a/yppsystems.htm

That's the link to Dudley's yards per point. I'm trying to tweak the formula and add a Sagarin Strength of Schedule formula to the equation. So far, though, I'm getting almost all dogs. Maybe that just means the favorite plays are that much stronger.

Adding ...

Florida 34 - Miss. St. 20 ---- PLAY MISS. ST. +23

Texas 30 - Missouri 23 ---- PLAY MISSOURI +13.5

Northern Illinois 30 - Miami-OH 10 ---- PLAY N. ILLINOIS -11

Orangemen44 says:

10/21/09 10:12PM

BOL this weekend

danyphan99 says:

10/21/09 10:17PM

all Dogs :)

BOL

alwayson22 says:

10/21/09 10:31PM

Orangeman44 and Danyphan99 - Thanks!

We'll see how this card plays out. I'm already thinking about tweaking the formula, though. Actually, it might be better just to apply different filters. I know I shouldn't react to a small sample size, but ...

Adding ....

UNLV 30 - New Mexico 24 ---- PLAY UNLV PK

USC 30 - Oregon St. 17 ---- PLAY OREGON ST. +21

alwayson22 says:

10/21/09 10:36PM

FINAL CARD:

Baylor +10

Clemson +7

Minnesota +18

Navy -3

Boston College +9

Tennessee +17

Idaho +13.5

Michigan +4.5

Kansas +7.5

UL-Monroe +17

SMU +17

Missouri +13.5

Miss. St. +23

N. Illinois -11

UNLV PK

OREGON ST. +21

BOL to everyone this weekend!

McLovin ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger!

gatogrande says:

10/22/09 12:22PM

hey i was bowsing some forums and came across this. im really interested in seeing how this method works out. im a long time player but new to this site. i will be following it to see how it plays out. i sent a friend request and would like to talk about your approach if you wouldnt mind. thanks bro

gatogrande says:

10/22/09 01:32PM

have you ran the army/rutgers game by any chance?

feel good about rutgers just curious to see what your re-worked system pops out

phancard says:

10/22/09 01:44PM

I like all of your plays except I am on Penn St -4.5 ..
Good Luck again Alwayson

ontheedge says:

10/22/09 06:03PM

Good luck Bro, I hope you win...I like your picks too...

You like Baylor even without Griffith Jr???

topperchris says:

10/22/09 04:45PM

Very intersted in this formula..Hope you have a big week..You maybe on to something!!!! GL

alwaylose says:

10/22/09 05:54PM

Too many games but look good GL

Pepsimansd says:

10/22/09 01:48PM

Always,

Thanks for the link for Dudley. I might be blind,

can you please assist. Where can I phsically

see the current weekly yards per point numbers?

All I see are explanations. Are you physically

working up every game? Thanks Pepsiman

Pepsimansd says:

10/22/09 03:23PM

Thanks for the 2 links!!!

Ch33z says:

10/22/09 07:00PM

lets see what happens after this week....good work with the stats bro.

Ch33z says:

10/25/09 04:20AM

should i fade this system next week? :D

spunky1231 says:

10/23/09 11:24AM

GL this weekend, will be checking results

kittsd says:

10/22/09 05:04PM

GL this week with your card -

CallMeBruce says:

10/22/09 07:10PM

Is this different from the YPPT system on the other thread?

USMCatc777 says:

10/23/09 11:27AM

Nice thread alwayson....i am leaning pretty heavily on ARK in their game against ole miss this weekend and they are a 6.5 point dog...any chance you can tell me where ur system puts the score?

USMCatc777 says:

10/24/09 12:17AM

Ok cool...i like formulas...they fascinate me, so i will be following you this week and then possibly tailing you if u have another mediocre-good week...i was gonna add u as a friend but have no idea how to, any suggestions?

USMCatc777 says:

10/26/09 09:45PM

Just an idea...i have no idea how ur formula works, if u could find a way to factor this stuff in, or if this will make a difference....but what if u factored in......

1. Size of O-Line/Hurries on the quarterback, how the QB performs when hurried. Also to include with this you can possibly calculate how the O-line performs against both Truck sized d-lines and speed sized d-lines

2. Height of wide receivers vs. height of db's/ whether or not the other db's struggle against taller receivers

Seems to me like once u are in this stage of the season all a team's secrets are out, and alot more player vs. player matchups become much more of a factor, therefore this could POSSIBLY help ur formula....i have no idea if it will, just food for thought.

USMCatc777 says:

10/26/09 09:58PM

let me know what u think/ if that has any chance of helping

alwayson22 says:

10/25/09 12:32AM

Baylor +10

Clemson +7

Minnesota +18

Navy -3

Boston College +9

Tennessee +17

Idaho +13.5

Michigan +4.5

Kansas +7.5

UL-Monroe +17

SMU +17

Missouri +13.5

Miss. St. +23

N. Illinois -11

UNLV PK

OREGON ST. +21

6-9-1 for the Week

Looks like the formula needs some more tweaking. It's going to be a wild ride if it keeps spitting out almost all underdogs! It looked good on paper last week (5-0), but I need to find some other filters ... (of course, the sample size is so small and the system doesn't account for variables like Navy and ULM missing their starting QB's.) I was stoked to see three of my favorite plays of the day (UNLV, Miss. St., and Tenn) come out winners. However, it was dissapointing to see Baylor, Mizzou, and Michigan roll over and die on their home fields. I was kind of hoping I could use the home dog filter I had, but that was kind of crushed today.

Take care, everyone and let's get back at it for Week 9!

alwayson22 says:

10/23/09 03:03PM

USMCatc777, The system had Ole Miss winning by a FG. Add in the points for home field and it's right around the line. I'd lean towards Arkansas, too, because Snead hasn't proven anything against decent teams this year. Ole Miss has beaten Memphis, SE Louisiana, Vanderbilt, and UAB. That non-conf schedule is a joke.

alwayson22 says:

10/22/09 10:01PM

Thanks, everybody!

CallMeBruce (great avatar), I'm not sure which other thread you are referring to, but my YPPT method is different. I tried to use unique weights and filters for each category, along with my own mix-in of the SOS from Sagarin. I think my filters or weights (or both) are off a bit because the system spits out almost every underdog when you get to a line of about 24+ points. At the same time, maybe this system with a few different filters could actually work in predicting certain underdog plays.

alwayson22 says:

10/22/09 03:05PM

Pepsi, here is the link I use for stats:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats

It gives the total yards per game and total points per game for each team. I just plug those numbers into an excel spreadsheet formula to get the adjusted yards per point totals that I use.

Gatogrande, the numbers I got for Rutgers-Army were right around the 10 point line. If I was going to lean one way or another, I'd probably lean towards Army, but that's more of a situational handicap lean (home team, thursday night, Rutgers isn't a world-beater by any stretch, etc.) rather than a purely fundamental handicapping of the game.

Just to make it clear, the plays on my final card are purely fundamental. As all the good cappers on this site know, there is a big element of situational handicapping that comes into play.

BOL!

cnguyen113 says:

10/22/09 06:04PM

i'll have a mclovin with all the sides! BOL

DOVJAK says:

10/22/09 01:41PM

wounded_duck says:

10/23/09 03:13PM

Cashmein says:

10/23/09 03:22PM

GL MC

lasvegasfinest1 says:

10/25/09 12:42AM

still pretty good work alwayson!! keep tweaking that system.i look forward to your picks for week 9

lasvegasfinest1 says:

10/22/09 04:42PM

very interesting. keep up the good work

cuzgotclout says:

10/22/09 04:35PM

I like how you are thinking! Would you be willing to let an inquiring mind in on how you add Sagarin's ratings in to the mix?????????

capskip says:

10/23/09 11:01AM

Thanks for the time you put in for picks.My system includes some of Sagarin figures.I really like the following teams.Clemson,No.Illinois,Michigan,Kansas,Idaho,Unlv.Keep in touch.GL

capskip says:

10/23/09 11:19AM

Yes you can! Check it this weekend,and then get back to me.GL

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McLovin's NCAAF System Plays --- Week 8

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